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Thredbo conference 5-9 September 2005 in Lisbon

The effects of major toll-road financed investments in private and public transport infrastructure on public transport – the “Oslo package”. Thredbo conference 5-9 September 2005 in Lisbon Nils Fearnley, Institute of Transport Economics, Oslo, Norway. Oslo package 1 background.

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Thredbo conference 5-9 September 2005 in Lisbon

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  1. The effects of major toll-road financed investments in private and public transport infrastructure on public transport – the “Oslo package” Thredbo conference 5-9 September 2005 in Lisbon Nils Fearnley, Institute of Transport Economics, Oslo, Norway

  2. Oslo package 1 background • “Queue, congestion, chaos” • Need to speed up investments • Toll road from 1990 • 20 % to public transport infrastructure

  3. Road investments: Ring road East-west tunnel Tunnels to north-east Improved main road standard and speeds Public transport investments: Fully connected metro Metro + tram line extensions Bus lanes, interchanges

  4. 40 % 30 000 30 % 25 000 Total modal share P.t. modal share morning rush 20 % 20 000 Peak hour passengers 10 % 15 000 0 % 10 000 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 Modal share 1

  5. Modal share 2

  6. Modal share (3) • Small immediate car traffic reduction due to the toll ring (3-5%) • Low growth in car traffic in spite of strong increase in drivers of mobility (jobs, income, population)

  7. Moda share (4) sustained patronage growth

  8. 340 320 300 280 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 Modelled Observed Public transport • Positive deviation from modelled demand late 1990s • Growth attributable to quality improvements: • connected metro • bus lanes • terminals • tram and metro extensions

  9. Operating cost • Bus lanes  cost reduction • Metro investments  cost increase

  10. Concluding remarks • 20 percent to p.t.: huge improvements • Modest growth in car traffic • Improved operating speed, but more so for car • Cost reductions (bus) and increase (tram, metro) • Patronage growth due to quality improvements • Future: • “Oslo package 2” launched 2001: Public transport package→ Infrastructure and rolling stock • Oslo Package 3?→ Road pricing + operating subsidies?

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