1. National Economic Social Council NESC Can the Celtic Tiger Change its Stripes? Reflections on NESC Report No. 113 (May 2005), The Developmental Welfare State John Sweeney

2. Plan of Presentation 1. The outcomes eluding our social policies and welfare state 2. Can welfare state ‘models’ help us? 3. Should we blame the Celtic Tiger … or learn from it? 4. How do we attain the outcomes eluding us? Plan of Presentation

3. 1.1 Significant minorities in Ireland’s population are still experiencing one or multiple forms of socal disadvantage, and present strategies and policies are not proving adequate in helping them. 1.2 Significant numbers of people at work are not getting the access to services they need if they are to retain the lifetime employability, flexibility and adaptability required of a workforce in an internationalised economy. 1. The Outcomes Eluding Us

4. 1.3 Values are changing, standards are rising, and attitudes and expectations are different, with respect to what constitutes acceptable provision for persons vulnerable to social exclusion, for whatever reason. 1.4 Ireland is being called by its economic success to improve its social supports across their entire spectrum, but in a manner aligned with the characteristics of its economy. 1. The Outcomes Eluding Us

5. Conventional analysis of Welfare States … and of the components of Ireland’s Welfare State Universal Insurance Residual 2. Welfare State Models

6. 2.1 First overarching strategy: keep state social spending for those who really need it - build a liberal, anglo-saxon welfare regime more decidedly. • we are not, and have not been, committed to this strategy • we are already the most targeted welfare state in the EU 15, and cannot be impressed with the results - the middle class is a major beneficiary of current public social spending … and will not be denied 2. Welfare State Models

7. 2.2 Second overarching strategy: develop social insurance further –make contributions easier - widen entitlement, reduce means-testing • levying payroll taxes endangers jobs of lower productivity and the employment prospects of those who seek them - core Eurozone economies are not surmounting a major divide between labour market insiders and outsiders - Ireland has had balanced employment creation (by skill level), improved employment standards, and has low tax on low earnings 2. Welfare State Models

8. 2.3 Third overarching strategy: provide more social protection unconditionally to people as citizens – emulate the Nordic welfare states more decidedly - we cannot ‘cherry pick’ – a Nordic-style welfare state means Nordic-style taxation, local government, conditionality, and some of their “ills” - the Nordic welfare states are themselves undergoing extensive reforms - Ireland’s experiences with univeralism to date have been expensive, and the outcomes are ambiguous 2. Welfare State Models

9. 3.1 Our economic performance is more part of the solution than of the problem Much higher spending is taking place in practically every social area, but the improvements in outcomes are not commensurate Rather than blame our strong economic performance for unacceptable social outcomes, we should learn more from how we achieved it Previously, economic underperformance set limits to our social objectives. Going forward, social underperformance will set limits to our economic objectives 3. Blame the Celtic Tiger or Learn from it?

10. 3.2 We need better analyses of many social outcomes. Examples: - relative social spending that is related to GNP and adjusted for population structure - analysis of what is driving median income as much as of those falling below proportions of it - analysis of welfare arrangements as much as of welfare rates - a greater awareness that children are poor because their households are poor 3. Blame the Celtic Tiger or Learn from it?

11. 3.3 We need improved, longer term social policy making - less ‘stop-go’ spending, more consistency, assured responses to analysis 3.4 We need better governance and stronger leadership in delivering on agreed strategies 3. Blame the Celtic Tiger or Learn from it?

12. Annual Growth in Equivalised Disposable Income in Real Terms: Ireland and Sweden, Mid-1990s to 2000 IrelandSweden Developmental Welfare State, p. 126 3. Blame the Celtic Tiger or Learn from it?

13. Table 1.p Changes in Social Assistance Payments 1994-2005, the CPI and GAIE “Benefit Dependency” changing not reducing Developmental Welfare State, p.53 Source: NESC Secretariat calculations

14. A Rising Tide Lifts all Boats? Haase, T (2005), Deprivation and its Spatial Articulation in the Republic of Ireland

15. A new basic architecture to Ireland’s Welfare State Services Income supports Activist measures “The Developmental Welfare State” 4. How do we attain the outcomes eluding us?

16. A new basic architecture to Ireland’s Welfare State: 1 the ‘Services Dividend’ Services Diverse provision Education Health Childcare Eldercare Housing Transport Training Employment services Tailored universalism (not ‘dualism’) Government guarantor of levels, access, standards and equity Accountable autonomy 4. How do we attain the outcomes eluding us?

17. Table 3.1. Context and Strategy for Social inclusion and social cohesion From Targeting to Tailored Universalism 4. How do we attain the outcomes eluding us?

18. A new basic architecture to Ireland’s Welfare State: 2 ‘income necessary but not sufficient’ Income supports Progressive child income supports Social Insurance Social Assistance Tax expenditures Child benefit Working age ‘participation packages’ Minimum pension guarantee; Capped pension tax expenditures 4. How do we attain the outcomes eluding us?

19. The “Golden Triangle” of Flexicurity Flexible Labour Market The ‘lubricant’ effect of RRs The qualification effect of ALMPs ALMPs Generous Welfare Schemes The ‘threat’ effect of ALMPs 4. How do we attain the outcomes eluding us?

20. A new basic architecture to Ireland’s Welfare State: 3 ‘R & D’ Novel/contestatory approaches Particular community/group projects ‘Schemes’ Area-based measures ‘New’ C & V Accountable autonomy Evaluation and mainstreaming Social Innovation 4. How do we attain the outcomes eluding us?

21. Who? What? How? Integration of services, income support and activist measures Governance and leadership Standards and rights Ages 0-17: children and young people Ages 18-29: young adults Ages 30-64: ‘anchor’ adults Ages 65+ People challenged in their personal autonomy Monitoring progress towards the Development Welfare State 4. How do we attain the outcomes eluding us?