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Public Opinion. Chapter 7 P. 154-176. What is Public Opinion?. How Polling Works How Opinions Differ. Public opinion. Publics/Factions Groups with a distinct political interests Advancing their ideas and interests at the expense of other citizens Public opinion
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Public Opinion Chapter 7 P. 154-176
What is Public Opinion? How Polling Works How Opinions Differ
Public opinion • Publics/Factions • Groups with a distinct political interests • Advancing their ideas and interests at the expense of other citizens • Public opinion • How people think or feel about a particular issue/thing • Not easy to measure • Opinions of active and knowledgeable people carry more weight • Federalist No. 10 • Deals with the problem of factions • Liberty is to faction what air is to fire • People are factious by nature • Republican government is the proposed cure for faction • Federalist No. 51 • James Madison • Coalitions more moderate in a large republic • Coalition=an alliance of factions • Need to accommodate a diversity of interests and opinions P. 156
Reasons why Government Policy is At Odds with Public Opinion • Framers • Created federal government to achieve specific goals • More perfect union • Justice • Domestic tranquility • Common defense • General welfare • Blessings of liberty • Framers • Believed there was no such thing as public opinion • Many publics/factions • Not easy to know what the public thinks • Government tends to listen to elite opinion P. 155
Checks on Public Opinion • Representative government • Federalism • Separation of powers • Bill of Rights • Independent judiciary P. 155
Public Opinion • Suffers from • Ignorance • Instability • Sensitivity to the wording of the question • Wording can alter answers • Order of options can affect the option chosen
Polling • Poll • Survey of public opinion • Provides with reasonable accuracy the measure of how people think • First known example of an opinion poll was a • Local straw poll conducted by The Harrisburg Pennsylvanian in 1824 • Showing Andrew Jackson leading John Quincy Adams by 335 votes to 169 in the contest for the presidency • Pollsters need to • Pose reasonable questions that are worded fairly • Ask people about things for which they have some basis to form an opinion P. 157
Polling • Random sample • Method of selecting from a population in which • Any given person has an equal chance of being interviewed • Necessary to insure a reasonably accurate measure of how the entire population thinks or feels • National surveys • For populations over 500,000 • Pollsters need to make about 15,000 phone calls to reach • 1,065 respondents • Insuring the poll has a sampling error of only +/- 3% • Sampling error • Difference between the results of random samples taken at the same time • Exit polls • Polls based on interviews conducted on Election Day with randomly selected voters
George Gallup founded • American Institute of Public Opinion • Precursor of • The Gallup Organization • In 1935 • Earned reputation when successfully predicted the Roosevelt victory over Landon in 1936 • Best known for their accuracy in predicting the outcome of United States presidential elections • Big mistakes in 1948 and 1976 • Became the Gallup Organization 1958 • LouisHarrisjoined the Roper firm as Roper's assistant • Founded Harris and Associates, Inc. (1956) • One of the best-known polling organizations • Polled for political candidates • Notably for President John F. Kennedy • Engineered and conducted polling while serving on the Kennedy strategy committee during the 1960 campaign • Elmo Roper founded 1946 • American pioneer in political forecasting using scientific polls • Built a comprehensive research facility to ensure that the views of the public are recorded properly
How Opinions Differ • Opinion saliency • Some people care more about certain issues than other people do • Opinion stability • Steadiness or volatility of an issue • Issues on which opinions are steady versus • Issues on which opinions are volatile • Opinion-policy congruence • Level of correspondence between government action and majority sentiment on an issue • Issues on which the government is in sync with popular views or majority sentiments while • On other issues it is significantly out of sync P. 157
Political Socialization Origins of Attitudes Family Religion Gender Schooling and Information Social Class Race and Ethnicity Region
Political socialization • Political socialization • Process by which personal and other background traits influence one’s views about politics • Mass opinion v. elite opinion • Political elites • Know more about politics • Think differently about politics • Have different views and beliefs • Hold more or less consistent set of opinions as to the policies government ought to pursue • Government tends more to elite opinion than popular views on many matters P. 158
Origins of Political Attitudes • Origins of Political Attitudes • Family • Religious tradition • Gender gap • Schooling/information • Social class • Race/ethnicity • Region P. 158
Family • Process of socialization begins very young • Young people identify with their parent’s political party by the time they are in 5th grade/11 years old • Party identification of your family is absorbed, although children become more independent-thinking with time • > ½ of children identify with one party or the other • High school seniors • 91% know the presidential preference of their parents • 71% know parents’ party identification P. 158-159
Religious tradition P. 159
Religion • Families form and transmit political beliefs through their religious tradition • Religious traditions • Protestantism • Catholicism • Judaism
Gender Gap Women Men • Ban liquor • Against war • For gun control • Confidence in the future • Allow liquor • Support call for war • Want use of guns • Not as much confidence in the future P. 160
Gender Gap • Issues on which men and women have biggest difference of opinion • Size of government • Use of force/Gun control • Confidence in the future • Spending programs for the poor • Gay rights • Men • Increasingly Republican since the mid-1960s • Women • Continue to identify with the Democratic Party at approximately the same rate since the early 1950s • This reflects attitudinal differences P. 160
Schooling/information • Education is a liberalizing force • College educated more liberal than high school educated • Most prestigious colleges even more liberal • Seniors more liberal than freshmen • Social sciences more liberal than engineering • More college more likely to participate in politics • PhDs decidedly more liberal • Reasons explaining effects of college • Type of person going to college • Exposure to more information • College teachers teach liberalism • Intellectuals need freedom to explore new and unpopular ideas P. 161
Education • 1920s-1960s • Studies showed • College education had a • Liberalizing effect possibly because of • Exposure to liberal elites • Contemporary college students’ opinions are • More complicated
Social class • Americans uncomfortable acknowledging social class • Middle class • Most Americans think they are middle class • Despite embarrassment • Difference between • Truck driver • Working class • Blue collar • Investment banker • Upper class/management • White collar • Public opinion less determined by class in U.S. than in Europe P. 163
Social class • Issues that lead people to choose party are • Non-economic • Race • Abortion • School prayer • Arms control • Environment • Gay rights P. 163
Race/ethnicity • Blacks • Most consistently and overwhelmingly Democratic • At every income level more Democratic • Fewer cleavages • Hispanics • Less so • Asians • Much less so • Identify with Republicans • Japanese most conservative • Koreans most liberal P. 164
Region • Southern congressmen vote consistently more conservatively than northern congressmen • South more accommodating to business • Less so to labor • Difficult for labor to organize • Difference among regions is greatest for • Non-economic issues P. 167
Regional Differences • White southerners were once more conservative than other regions regarding • Aid to minorities • Legalizing marijuana • School busing and • Rights of the accused • Southerners are now significantly less Democratic than they were for most of the 20th century
Political Ideology Categories of Opinion Political Elites Labels
Political Ideology vs. Political Culture Ideology Culture • A coherent and consistent set of beliefs about • Who ought to rule • Principles rulers ought to obey • Policies rulers ought to pursue • Examples • Socialism • Communism • Fascism • Most Americans do not think about politics ideologically • A distinctive and patterned way of thinking about how • Political system and • Economic life ought to be run • American political culture • Freedom • Equality of opportunity • Civic duty • Attachment to importance of Americanism • At some level this is an ideology P. 167
Categories of opinion • Economy • Government policy toward • Jobs • Money for education, health care • Taxes on rich • Civil rights • Segregation • Hiring opportunities • Compensatory programs • Affirmative action • Public and political conduct • Rights of the accused • Protest demonstrations • Legalize marijuana • Eliminate causes of crime P. 169
Labels • Pure conservative • Conservative on both economic and personal conduct • 28% of population • Pure liberal • Liberal on both economic and personal conduct • 17% of population • Libertarian • Conservative on economic • Liberal on personal conduct • 21% of population • Populist • Liberal on economic • Conservative on personal conduct • 24% of population P. 170
Conservatives • Free market • States’ rights • Reliance on individual choice in economic affairs • Cut back welfare • Low taxes • Lock up criminals • Curb anti-social behavior • Older • Higher incomes • White • Midwest • For Reagan P. 170
Liberals • Active government intervention in economy • Create social welfare state • Reduce economic inequality • Tax rich heavily • Cure economic causes of crime • Allow abortions • Protect rights of the accused • Broadest free speech and press • Young • College educated • Non-religious • Jewish • Anti-Reagan P. 170
Liberals • Economic policy • Favor jobs for all • Subsidized medical care and education • Increase taxation of the rich • Civil rights favor • Strong federal action to desegregate schools • Hiring opportunities for minorities • Strict enforcement of civil rights laws • Public and political conduct • Are tolerant of protest demonstrations • Favor legalization of marijuana • Emphasize protecting the rights of the accused
Libertarians • Small weak government • Government stay out of economy • Government stay out of personal lives of the people • Young • College educated • High income • No religion • For Reagan P. 170
Populists • Reduce economic inequality • Control business • Lock up criminals • Allow prayer in the schools • Older • Poorly educated • Low income • Religious • Female • South and Midwest • For Reagan P. 170
Elite opinion • Elites • People who have a disproportionate share of some valued resource • Money • Education • Prestige/social class • Athletic ability • Beauty • Political power • Raise and frame political issues • State the norms by which issues should be settled • Do not define problems that are rooted in personal experience • Do not define economic problems • Political elites/activists • Tend to display ideological consistency • Influence of peers • Likes attract likes • Associate with people who agree with you • More time you spend—more your views will shift to match theirs P. 171
Elites influence Public Opinion • In two ways • Access to media • Raise and frame the issues • State the norms by which issues should be settled • Norm • Standard of right or proper conduct • Racism and sexism are wrong • Foreign policy • Elites define problem as well as • Policy options • Many elites therefore many different elite opinions P. 172
