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CLARIS WP4.3 : Continental-scale air Pollution in South America

CLARIS WP4.3 : Continental-scale air Pollution in South America. CLARIS WP4.3: Continental-scale air pollution by South American mega cities Guy Brasseur (MPI) and Carlos Nobre (INPE) (CNRS, INPE , UCH, MPI ). Cooperation between South American and European scientists to assess:

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CLARIS WP4.3 : Continental-scale air Pollution in South America

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  1. CLARIS WP4.3 : Continental-scale air Pollution in South America

  2. CLARIS WP4.3: Continental-scale air pollution by South American mega cities Guy Brasseur (MPI) and Carlos Nobre (INPE)(CNRS, INPE, UCH, MPI) • Cooperation between South American and European scientists to assess: • Impact of mega cities on air quality at the sub-continental scale (ex: Sao Paulo and Santiago) • Impact of land-use changes on air quality at the local and regional scale • Relative effects of anthropogenic versus biogenic emissions on atmospheric oxidants and aerosol abundances at the continental scale • Regional climate forcing resulting from changes in aerosols and tropospheric ozone concentrations in the past and in the future

  3. Nesting of Regional Models in Global Chemical-Transport Models • Regional Chemical Transport Models covering the South American continent with high resolution local spots in urban areas should be coupled to a global Chemical Transport Model (MOZART) and run with assimilated wind fields and observed lightning and biomass burning emissions

  4. Notrogen Oxide (pptv) May, 2003

  5. High Troposphere and Long Range Transport of CO 250mbar INPE-CPTEC

  6. Ozone Change 2000-2100 A2

  7. Present-day Surface Emissions NOx CO Surface annual average of present-day CO and NOx anthropogenic emissions in 109 molec.cm -2 .s -1.

  8. Emissions 1890-2000 CO NOx 2000-2100 A2 scenario Yearly surface average of anthropogenic emissions of CO (right) and NOx (left) . Absolute differences between 1890 and 2000 (top), and between 2000 et 2100 (bottom) in 109 molec.cm -2 .s –1.

  9. July Jan CO Mixing Ratio (ppbv) 1890 2000 2100 A2

  10. July NOx Mixing Ratio (pptv) Jan 1890 2000 2100 A2

  11. Surface Ozone (ppbv) January July 2000

  12. Challenges for the Future Based on P. Cox, 2004 CLIMATE Direct and Indirect Effects / Feedbacks on natural sources Greenhouse Effect Heat island effect Human Emissions AEROSOLS GREENHOUSE GASES CH4, O3, N2O, CFC Fires: soot Mineral dust Oxidants: OH, H2O2 HO2,O3 Human Emissions CO2 N deposition 03, UV radiation (Gas-phase) CHEMISTRY ECOSYSTEMS Biogenic Emissions:CH4,DMS,VOC’s Dry deposition: stomatal conductance Land-use Change, Fires Human Emissions LAND WATER / CITIES Damming / Irrigation / Emission of heat The future: a full treatment of climate-chemistry-ecosystem-land surface feedbacks

  13. GOES ABBA Source Emission for CO19SEP2002 - kg/(m2s)

  14. An example of the biomass burning inventory:August 2004

  15. Monthly Carbon Monoxide Emission Estimation for 2002 Hybrid remote sensing fire products: GOES WF_ABBA AVHRR and GOES (INPE) MODIS (NASA) Freitas et al 2005 Duncan et al.2003 EDGAR 3.2 August September

  16. Carbon Monoxide (ppb 72 m) Forecast for 3 and 4/September/2004 Carbon Monoxide Source Emission (kg/m2s) - 3/September/2004 www.cptec.inpe.br/meio_ambiente

  17. Carbon Monoxide (ppb 10700 m) Forecast for 3 and 4/September/2004 GOES+METEOSAT IR 2100Z/4/September/2004 Upper troposphere transport associated to the a mid-latitude cold front approach

  18. An example of CATT-BRAMS output:South American and African biomass burning plumes – Aug/2002

  19. Wet removal of PM2.5 (mg/m2) Forecast for 3 and 4/September/2004 GOES+METEOSAT IR 2100Z/4/September/2004 Wet removal of PM2.5 associated to the a mid-latitude cold front approach

  20. Mexico City from Satellites – 1GOME NO2 December average Data courtesy J. Burrows, U. Bremen Processing by S. Massie, NCAR

  21. Chemical Weather seen from Space

  22. CLARIS WP4.3 Deliverables • D4.10 (month 12): Implementation of atmospheric chemistry/transport models in South American institutions (“trans-national technology transfer”). • D4.11 (month 18): Joint development (studies/analysis) of detailed emission inventories (natural and anthropogenic compounds) for South America (Exchanges of scientific visitors). • D4.12 (month 24): Joint study/analysis focusing on the evaluation of model simulations and of the impact of environmental policies. • D4.13 (month 36): Training of South American scientists and students at European Institutions for the use of global and regional atmospheric chemical models

  23. The End Obrigado Muchas Gracias Merci

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