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Evaluating Environmental Response in Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Regulation Using IERM/SVM

This report focuses on the role of Integrated Ecosystem Response Modeling (IERM) in evaluating the environmental response to the regulation of Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence River. The study utilizes a 100-year Natural Balance Series (NBS) consisting of historical data and General Circulation Model forecasts. A plan will be developed to meet established criteria, applied to the NBS time series, producing a comprehensive 100-year series of water levels and flows. Alternative criteria will be proposed, and the performance of various measures will be evaluated to assess benefits, trade-offs, and significance.

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Evaluating Environmental Response in Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Regulation Using IERM/SVM

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  1. Role of IERM in Evaluation of Environmental Response to Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Regulation

  2. EWTG Assessment Using IERM/SVM Starting Point - Existing Criteria 100-year NBS series (historical and GCM forecast) Develop Plan to meet Criteria (PFEG) Apply plan to NBS time series to produce 100-year series of water levels/flows (HHTWG) Propose Alternative Criteria (ETWG) Compute response of all measures/metrics of Performance Indicators (IERM/SVM) Judge benefits/trade-offs and their significance (ETWG) Evaluate relativeresponse of each PI measure compare to 58DD (baseline) and No Regulation scenarios (IERM/SVM)

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