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Disruptive Demographics: Im plications F or K-12 Education in Michigan

August 2012. Disruptive Demographics: Im plications F or K-12 Education in Michigan. James H. Johnson, Jr. Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise Kenan-Flagler Business School University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. OVERVIEW. • Demographic Trends.

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Disruptive Demographics: Im plications F or K-12 Education in Michigan

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  1. August 2012 Disruptive Demographics: Implications For K-12 Education in Michigan James H. Johnson, Jr. Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise Kenan-Flagler Business School University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

  2. OVERVIEW • Demographic Trends • Challenges & Opportunities • Discussion

  3. what CENSUS 2010 will REVEAL August 2012

  4. 6 DISRUPTIVE TRENDS • The South Rises – Again • The Browning of America • Marrying Out is “In” • The Silver Tsunami is About to Hit • The End of Men? • Cooling Water from Grandma’s Well… and Grandpa’s Too!

  5. The South Continues To Rise ...Again!

  6. SOUTH’S SHARE OF U.S. NET POPULATION GROWTH, SELECTED YEARS, 1910-2010

  7. SHARES OF NET POPULATION GROWTH BY REGION, 2000-2010

  8. NET MIGRATION TRENDS, 2000-2008 = Net Import = Net Export

  9. GROSS AND NET MIGRATION FOR THE SOUTH, 2004-2010

  10. STATE SHARES OF SOUTH’S NET GROWTH, 2000-2010

  11. STATE SHARE OF MIDWEST’S NET GROWTH, 2000-2010 Region/State Absolute Change State’s Share The Midwest 2,534,225 100.0% Illinois 411,339 16.2% Indiana 403,317 15.9% Missouri 384,446 15.2% Wisconsin 323,311 10.4% Michigan -54,804 -2.2%

  12. Gross and Net Migration, Michigan, 2004-2010 Year Arriving Departing Net Migrants Migrants Migration 2009-2010 50,947 79,699 - 28,752 2008-2009 58,832 89,694 -30,862 2007-2008 60,408 97,778 -37,370 2006-2007 52,408 89,342 -36,934 2005-2006 54,531 83,489 -28,958 2004-2005 54,980 77,518 -22,538 Total 332,106 517,520 -185,414

  13. Major Redistributors of Population to Michigan, 2009-2010 State Origin Number of State Origin Number of Arriving Migrants Arriving Migrants Florida 5,091 Arizona 1,726 Ohio 4,278 Georgia 1,682 Illinois 3,930 North Carolina 1,678 Indiana 3,283 Tennessee 1,665 California 3,243 Virginia 1,331 Texas 2,760 Colorado 1,101 Wisconsin 1,827 Foreign 1,194 New York 1,801

  14. Major Destinations of Out Migrants From Michigan, 2009-2010 State Destination Departing State Destination Departing Migrants Migrants Florida 8,512 Arizona 2,946 Ohio 6,137 Georgia 2,813 Illinois 5,514 North Carolina 2,453 Indiana 4,814 Tennessee 2,343 California 4,722 Virginia 2,225 Texas 3,997 Colorado 2,119 Wisconsin 3,236 Foreign 2,297 New York 3,067

  15. Adjusted Gross Incomes of Arriving and Departing Migrants, Michigan, 2004-2010 Year Arriving AGI Departing AGI Difference 2009-2010 $41,136 $44,721 -$3,585 2008-2009 $41,256 $47,068 -$5,812 2007-2008 $42,735 $50,870 -$8,135 2006-2007 $45,872 $49,932 -$4,060 2005-2006 $46,129 $46,924 -$795 2004-2005 $45,249 $46,820 -$1,571 Total $43,730 $47,723 -$3,993

  16. THE “BROWNING” OF AMERICA

  17. THE NUMBERS Legal Immigrants: • 1920-1961: 206,000 annually • 1961-1992: 561,000 annually • 1993-1998: 800,654 annually • 1999-2004: 879,400 annually • 2005-2008: 1,137,000 annually Refugees, Parolees, Asylees • 1961-1993: 2.1 million (65,000 annually) • 1994-1998: 428,361 (85,672 annually) • 1999-2004: 487,386 (81,231 annually) • 2005-2008: 203,642 (75,661 annually) Illegal Immigrants: • 300,000 to 400,000 annually over the past two decades • Three million granted amnesty in 1986 • 2.7 million illegal immigrants remained in U.S. after 1986 reforms • October 1996: INS estimated that there were 5 million illegal immigrants in the U.S. • August 2005: Illegal population range from 7 to 15 million.

  18. NON-IMMIGRANTS ADMITTED TO UNITED STATES, SELECTED YEARS, 1981-2008

  19. IMMIGRATION POPULATION, 1900-2007 Source: Center for Immigration Studies; U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey

  20. U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY RACE & ETHNICITY, 2000-2009

  21. SHARES OF NET POPULATION GROWTH, 2000-2009

  22. MEDIAN AGE OF U.S. POPULATION BY RACE, HISPANIC ORIGIN & GENDER, 2009

  23. TOTAL FERTILITY RATES OF U.S. WOMEN BY RACE/ETHNICITY, 2007 Source: Johnson and Lichter (2010)

  24. RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF U.S. BIRTHS BY RACE / ETHNICITY Source: Johnson and Lichter (2010); Tavernise (2011).

  25. RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF U.S. POPULATION BY RACE / ETHNICITY Source: Pew Research Center, 2008 *projected.

  26. MICHIGAN POPULATION CHANGE BY RACE & ETHNICITY, 2000-2010

  27. Median Age and Fertility Rates for Females in Michigan, 2006-2010 Fertility/1000 Demographic Group Median Age women* All Females 39.3 53 White, Not Hispanic 42.0 49 Black 34.4 62 American Indian & Alaskan Native 34.1 55 Asian 31.9 61 Native Hawaiian & Pacific Islander 26.6 81 Some other race 25.0 92 Two or more races 17.5 57 Hispanic 24.1 87 Native Born 39.1 52 Foreign Born 41.4 77 Source: www.census.gov *Women 15 to 50 with births in past 12 months.

  28. Conceptual Framework for Assessing the Economic Impact of Hispanics in North Carolina

  29. SUMMARY OF HISPANIC ECONOMIC IMPACT, NC, 2006

  30. Marrying Out is “In”

  31. INTERMARRIAGE TREND, 1980-2008 % Married Someone of a Different Race/Ethnicity

  32. EDUCATION & INTERMARRIAGE % of Newlyweds Who Married Someone of a Different Race/Ethnicity, 2008

  33. INTERMARRIAGE TYPES Newly Married Couples in 2008

  34. INTERMARRIAGE RATES BY RACE & ETHNICITY% of Newlyweds Who Married Someone of a Different Race/Ethnicity, 2008

  35. THE SILVER TSUNAMI

  36. U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY AGE, 2000-2009

  37. U.S. POPULATION TURNING 50, 55, 62, AND 65 YEARS OF AGE, (2007-2015)

  38. THE GREYING OF AMERICA U.S. Census Projections

  39. ABSOLUTE AND PERCENT CHANGE IN U.S. POPULATION BY AGE

  40. OLDER WORKERS IN U.S. WORKFORCE

  41. Absolute and Percent Population Change by Age, 2000-2010 Age United States Michigan All Ages 27,323,632 -54,804 (9.7%) (-0.6%) <25 5,416,292 -209,947 (5.4%) (-6.0%) 25-44 -2,905,697 -518,421 (-3.4%) (-17.5%) 45-64 19,536,809 531,052 (31.5%) (23.8%) 65+ 5,276,231 142,512 (15.1%) (11.7%)

  42. The End of Men?

  43. FEMALE WORKFORCE REPRESENTATION

  44. THE PLIGHT OF MEN • Today, three times as many men of working age do not work at all compared to 1969. • Selective male withdrawal from labor market—rising non-employment due largely to skills mismatches, disabilities & incarceration. • The percentage of prime-aged men receiving disability insurance doubled between 1970 (2.4%) and 2009 (4.8%). • Since 1969 median wage of the American male has declined by almost $13,000 after accounting for inflation. • After peaking in 1977, male college completion rates have barely changed over the past 35 years.

  45. COLLEGE CLASS OF 2010

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