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Monetary Policy Report 2007:1

Monetary Policy Report 2007:1

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Monetary Policy Report 2007:1

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  1. Monetary Policy Report2007:1

  2. 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bandsPer cent Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  3. 2. GDP with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  4. 3. CPI with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  5. 4. UND1X with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  6. 5. Actual and trend labour productivityAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data Note. Trend calculated using a Hodrick-Prescott filter. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  7. 6. GDPQuarterly changes in per cent, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  8. 7. Number of hours workedIndex 2002 Q 1 = 100 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  9. 8. Number of employed and number of people in the labour forceThousands, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  10. 9. Proportion of open unemployed and total unemployedPercentage of the labour force, seasonally adjusted data Sources: The National Labour Market Board, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  11. 10. Household consumption, disposable income and saving ratioAnnual percentage change and percentage of disposable income Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines and striped bars represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  12. 11. InvestmentsPer cent of GDP Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Dots represent the Riksbank’s forecast for the full year.

  13. 12. GDP in the United States and the euro areaQuarterly change in per cent Sources: Eurostat, the US Department of Commerce and the Riksbank

  14. 13. Real house prices and private consumption in the United StatesAnnual percentage change Sources: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight and the US Department of Commerce

  15. 14. Swedish exports and export market index for goodsAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  16. 15. TCW exchange rateIndex, 18 November 1992 = 100 Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  17. 16. Nominal hourly wagesAnnual percentage change Sources: National Mediation Office and the Riksbank Note. Dots represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  18. 17. Unit labour costs for the economy as a wholeAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data Note. Broken lines and striped bars represent the Riksbank’s forecast. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  19. 18. UND1X and CPIAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  20. 19. UND1X excluding energyAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  21. 20. Rep rate forecast and implied forward rates based ongovernment securities on different occasionsPer cent Source: The Riksbank

  22. Table 1. InflationAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and The Riksbank Note. The assessment in the October Inflation Report is stated in parentheses.

  23. Table 2. Key figuresAnnual percentage change unless otherwise specified Note. The assessment in the October Inflation Report is stated in parentheses. Sources: IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and The Riksbank

  24. 21. Repo rate assumptionsPer cent Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  25. 22. UND1XAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  26. 23. GDPAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  27. 24. Number of hours workedAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  28. 25. Open unemploymentPercentage of labour force, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  29. 26. Average number of hours worked per yearHours per inhabitant, aged 16-64 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  30. 27. Employment ratePer cent Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  31. 28. Estimated labour market gapsPercentage deviation from HP trend Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  32. 29. Estimated output gapsPercentage deviation from HP trend Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  33. 30. Nominal wages, scenario with higher wagesAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  34. 31. GDP, scenario with higher wagesAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  35. 32. Repo rate, scenario with higher wagesPer cent Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  36. 33. UND1X, scenario with higher wagesAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  37. 34. GDP, scenario with lower international growthAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  38. 35. UND1X, scenario with lower international growthAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  39. 36. Repo rate, scenario with lower international growthAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  40. 37. GDPAnnual percentage change Sources: Eurostat, OECD and the US Department of Commerce

  41. 38. Employment and private consumption in the United StatesAnnual percentage change Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and US Department of Commerce

  42. 39. Purchasing managers index in the United StatesIndex, unchanged activity = 50 Source: Institute for Supply Management

  43. 40. Economic indicators for the euro areaIndex, 2000 = 100, and annual percentage change Sources: European Commission and OECD

  44. 41. Confidence indicators for the manufacturing industry in the euro area, France and GermanyBalance Source: European Commission

  45. 42. Oil price, Brent crudeUSD per barrel Note. Forward rates are calculated as a 15-day average. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast. Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbank

  46. 43. CPIAnnual percentage change Source: OECD

  47. 44. Rep rate forecast and implied forward rates based on government securitiesPer cent Source: The Riksbank

  48. 45. Repo rate forecast and implied forward rates based on government securities, bank securities and expectations regarding the repo ratePer cent Sources: DG ECFIN - Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs

  49. 46. Monetary policy expectations in the euro area and the United StatesPer cent Source: The Riksbank

  50. 47. Long-term interest ratesPer cent Source: The Riksbank Note. Government bonds with approximately 10 years left to maturity.