FORESTRY MITIGATION PROJECTS & SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

1. FORESTRY MITIGATION PROJECTS & SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Prof. N. H. Ravindranath Indian Institute of Science

2. Global Climate Change • It is an important global environmental problem • CO2 concentration has increased from 280 ppmv (pre-ind rev-1750) to 368 ppmv in 2000 • Projected to reach 540-970 ppmv by 2100 • Global mean temp is projected to increase by 1.4 to 5.8 deg C by 2100 • Projected climate change is likely to have adverse impacts on natural ecosystems such as forests and human systems such as food production • Thus, climate change issue has attracted global attention

3. Forests & Climate Change • Forests play a critical role in global carbon cycle • Forests contribute about 20% of global CO2 emissions • Forest ecosystems are vulnerable to projected climate change • Likely to have adverse impacts on forest biodiversity and biomass production • Thus need to assess impacts and develop adaptation strategies • Forests provide a large mitigation opportunity to stabilize GHG concentration in the atmosphere along with significant co-benefits • Mitigation through forest sector has been a contentious issue in climate negotiations

4. Mitigation Options Mitigation: Includes all activities aimed at reducing GHG emissions and/or removal of CO2 from atmosphere, to stabilize CO2 concentration in the atmosphere • Mitigation in the forest sector; includes carbon sink conservation, C sink expansion & fossil fuel substitution by bioenergy I. Forest Carbon Conservation Management Measures • Banning deforestation or forest conversion to non-forest uses • Formation of protected areas, conversion of forests to national parks and sanctuaries • Adoption of sustainable logging practices • Adoption of forest fire control techniques • Implementation of fuelwood conservation and substitution • Fuelwood efficient stoves, efficient charcoal kilns and biogas • Recycling of forest products

5. Mitigation Options… II. Carbon Storage Management • Natural regeneration • Reforestation in degraded forest lands • Afforestation in non-forest lands • Carbon pools in durable wood products III. Substitution Management • Bioenergy substituting fossil fuel electricity • Sustainable wood products substituting fossil fuel based building materials (cement, steel etc.)

6. Global Mitigation Potential of Forest Sector Activities

7. Area under forests: Forest Conversion/loss: Afforestation Area brought under JFM (largely regeneration): Wasteland estimates: Potential for agroforestry: (Cultivable waste to long fallow) 63.7 Mha About 200,000 ha 1.4 Mha annually 1.4 Mha annually 66 to > 100 Mha 20 Mha Indian Situation

8. Indian Situation… • Effective Forest Conservation Act and other legislations • Biomass demands growing leading to; • Shortages of fuelwood, pulp, timber • Large imports • Increased livestock grazing pressure on forestlands • Large external funding to afforestation activities • State support to afforestation is declining in many states

9. Why Explore Mitigation Opportunity in Forest Sector? • Need to conserve forests and reduce pressure on forests • For non-GHG related reasons such as • biodiversity, watershed, livelihoods • Need to afforest/reforest degraded lands to prevent land degradation • Need to grow biomass to meet growing demand • Need to develop community institutions and enhance capacity to protect and manage forests • Need to work towards stabilization of GHG concentration in the atmosphere • CURRENT EFFORTS INADEQUATE • TECHNICAL, INSTITUTIONAL, FINANCIAL BARRIERS

10. Advantages of Implementing Forest Mitigation Projects; Afforestation and Reforestation • Introduce innovative technical interventions into A&R programs to • Increase biomass productivity • Conserve biodiversity • Enhance the rate of spread of A&R • Reclaim degraded lands • Build institutions at village to forest division to state level • Adopt innovative institutional interventions to strengthen community institutions • Enhance financial flows to communities

11. Potential Contentious Issues • Losing low-cost mitigation opportunities? • Global demands for forest carbon credits (CERs/RMUs) limited • Insignificant loss of carbon credit potential • Communities may lose access to land & biomass • Project should be fully compatible with JFM/other regulations • Community needs can be built in to project • Non-permanence, leakage and uncertainty in measurements of carbon stock changes • Techniques, accounting rules and models available • SBSTA & IPCC are developing guidelines

12. Mitigation Potential • Estimate technical, economic and market potential • Demonstrate environmental additionality • Estimating the carbon stock changes in baseline and mitigation scenario • Estimating incremental or additional C seq. • Need for policies, programs and measures to overcome barriers to A&R and enhance stakeholder involvement • Need for additional investment to overcome the barriers • Need for methods, techniques and models to address issues of non-permanence, leakage, uncertainty etc.

13. Mitigation Potential Through a Sustainable Forest Management Approach for India • Potential Scenarios • Technical potential scenario • Sustainable forestry scenario • Commercial forestry scenario • Potential Mitigation Activities • Afforestation – short rotation • Afforestation – long rotation • Forest regeneration (reforestation) • Forest Protection • Bioenergy

14. Baseline Scenario • Current rate of forest loss projected to continue • Rates of afforestation projected to decline • Area under crops stabilized (at ~ 150 Mha) • Current (10th plan) rate of investment projected to continue • Biomass demands are not systematically addressed in afforestation programs

15. Sustainable Forestry Scenario • Estimate fuelwood, industrial wood and sawn wood demands for 2015 • Assess land use pattern and surplus land available for forestry activities • Identify forestry activities for meeting biomass demands eg. Short-rotation plantation for ind.wood • Allocate forestry activities to compatible land categories; SR-plantations for private lands • Meet current biomass demands (for 2000) from baseline activities; existing forests, plantations, farms • Meet incremental (2015 minus 2000) biomass demands from proposed forestry activities

16. Method of Estimation of Carbon Benefits & Costs • COMAP model developed by F-7 (Tropical Forest -7) Network • Inputs; Baseline & project scenario • Area afforested-yearly, Soil C, Biomass growth rate, Rotation period, Life of product, investment cost, annual cost, monitoring cost, value of products (timber, fuelwood, NTFPs) • Outputs; Baseline and Mitigation scenario • Annual and cumulative carbon stock changes (tC/ha) • Incremental carbon stock • Total C stock per ha • Cost-Effectiveness; • Investment cost; Rs/tC or Rs/ha • Life cycle cost; Rs/tC or Rs/ha • Net present value of returns; Rs/tC

17. Mitigation Potential and Cost of Forestry Sector Activities

18. Mitigation Potential

19. Incremental Mitigation Potential(106 tC)

20. Investment Required (Rs. Million)

21. Data, Methods, Models are critical- Baseline & Project Activities • Monitoring & estimating • AGB stock, annual AGB growth rate • Soil carbon stock, annual / periodic changes • Developing ratio of AGB to BGB • Monitoring extraction rates and effects on carbon stock • Monitoring area changes, crown cover changes and linking to biomass stock changes • Estimating production of wood and NTFPs & values • Models for projecting biomass and soil carbon stock • Models & methods for incorporating barriers for estimating mitigation potential • Models for estimating costs and benefits

22. Addressing Contentious IssuesGuidelines, Methods, Models • NON-PERMANENCE/REVERSIBILITY OF CARBON SEQUESTERED;Temporary nature of CO2 removal by sinks from LUCF activities • Estimating C stocks annually • LEAKAGE;Net change of anthropogenic emissions by sources of GHGs and removal by sinks, which occurs outside the project boundary, and which is measurable and attributable to the CDM project activity • Estimating C stock changes within & outside project boundary • ADDITIONALITY; A project activity is additional if anthropogenic GHG emissions are reduced below those that would have occurred in the absence of the project activity [OR ] CO2 removal by sinks that are higher than that would have occurred in the absence of a project activity • - Estimate C-stock changes under baseline and mitigation Sce

23. UNCERTAINTY IN ESTIMATESGuidelines and Methods to Reduce • Measuring, estimating and monitoring carbon stock changes • Estimating non-GHG environmental impacts • Biodiversity, Ground water, soil conser. • Estimating socio-economic impacts • Access to grass, fuelwood & NTFPs • Changes in employment & income

24. Issues… • BASELINE DEVELOPMENT • Reliable estimates of C stock changes in the proposed project area in the absence of project activity • METHODS TO ADDRESS CONTENTIOUS ISSUES ARE AVAILABLE • Simplification • Reduce costs & increase accuracy • Create access to potential users • ACCOUNTING RULES FOR ADDRESSING CONTENTIOUS ISSUES • SBSTA & IPCC are developing guidelines & methods • TRANSACTION COSTS; for baseline dev. Monitoring and project administration - Minimum • BUILDING INSTITUTIONS & CAPACITY TO ENHANCE PARTICIPATION OF LOCAL INSTITUTIONS • critical