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Voter Behavior and Demographics in U.S. Elections

hedwig-bryant avatar
hedwig-bryant
23 diapositives · 388 Views · Nov 19, 2014

This overview examines the demographics and behaviors influencing voter turnout in U.S. elections. It discusses factors affecting support for presidential candidates like Mitt Romney and Barack Obama, including race, income, and religion. It highlights historical changes in voting qualifications, current voter registration requirements set by states, and comparisons of turnout rates between presidential and midterm elections. Additionally, it explores reasons for low voter participation, including institutional barriers and political disenchantment, as well as the importance of educational achievement as a predictor of voting behavior.

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  1. Quick Check 1: • Who is more likely to vote for Mitt Romney? Why? • White, evangelical minister • African-American Baptist minister • Cuban immigrant living in Florida working minimum wage • Middle-class Hispanic-American housewife

  2. Quick Check 2: • Who is most likely to vote for Barack Obama? • Upper income Jewish male rabbi • Lower income African-American mother • Middle income Asian American protestant high school student • White male who did not graduate from high school

  3. Public Opinion Policy

  4. Voter Turn Out How to get to the polls

  5. Elections Every 2 Years • House – 2 years • Senate – 6 years (2 years, 1/3 elected) • President – 4 years

  6. Historical qualifications • Religion (eliminated by states) • Property (eliminated by states) • Race (eliminated by 15th Amendment) • Sex (eliminated by 19th Amendment)

  7. Historical qualifications • Income (eliminated by 24th Amendment) • Literacy (eliminated by Voting Rights Act of 1965) • Minimum Age of 21 (eliminated by 26th Amendment)

  8. Current Qualifications • ALL SET BY STATES!! • Citizenship, residency, age, registration

  9. Comparison • US • ~60% in presidential elections • ~40% in midterm elections • Even lower in state elections • Declining since 1960 • Western European • ~90% turn out rate

  10. Comparison • We have no compulsory voting • No fines, no same day registration, dual party system allows for fewer choice

  11. Reasons for Low Turn Out • Institutional Barriers • How many can you name?

  12. Answers. . . • Registration • Ballot Fatigue • Excessive # of Elections • Type of election • Difficulty of Attaining absentee ballot • Age—youth are the worst

  13. Reasons for Low Turn Out • Political Reasons: • Lack of political efficacy • Dissatisfaction with candidates, parties, etc. • Lack of strong 2 party competition • Weaknesses of parties in mobilizing voters

  14. Voter Behavior Factors Affecting

  15. Democrat Republican Democrat + Swing Republican Democratic Republican Democratic Republican

  16. Geography, Time • Solid South—traditionally Democratic, trending Republican • Coattail effect • Critical Elections “realigning” • Long term change in political alignment

  17. Party ID • Probably second strongest predictor of voting behavior • Split ticket voting • Independents • Rising quickly • Tend to be young, college educated, above average incomes Retrospective/Prospective Voting

  18. Who votes, Who doesn’t, Who cares? • Characteristics of those likely to vote • Level of educational achievement greatest predictor of voting • Cuts across all other factors • Income—rich vs. poor • Age—older vote more than young • Race—whites more likely than African Americans more likely than Hispanics

  19. Who votes, Who doesn’t, Who cares? • Does it matter? • Yes—class bias—older, richer, white people dominate • No—nonvoters are demographically different, not politically different

  20. Demographics • Sex • Female / male = Dem, GOP • Race • More likely to vote Dem, African Americans—most loyal Dem voters • Social Class • Upper = GOP; Lower = Dem • Religion • Protestant = GOP; Catholic = Dem; Jewish = Dem.