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CLIMATE CHANGE – THE FUTURE OF FARMING AND FORESTRY IN THE COTSWOLDS

CLIMATE CHANGE – THE FUTURE OF FARMING AND FORESTRY IN THE COTSWOLDS. Richard Lloyd Board Member. THE COTSWOLDS AONB. THE LARGEST AONB AT ALMOST 800 SQ MILES. LAND USE IN THE COTSWOLDS. THREE FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS by 2030. A worst case scenario A best case scenario

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CLIMATE CHANGE – THE FUTURE OF FARMING AND FORESTRY IN THE COTSWOLDS

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  1. CLIMATE CHANGE – THE FUTURE OF FARMING AND FORESTRY IN THE COTSWOLDS Richard Lloyd Board Member

  2. THE COTSWOLDS AONB THE LARGEST AONB AT ALMOST 800 SQ MILES

  3. LAND USE IN THE COTSWOLDS

  4. THREE FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS by 2030 A worst case scenario A best case scenario A most likely scenario Two parameters Climate Change Responses to climate change

  5. CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS

  6. BEST CASE SCENARIO High degree of response Low degree of climate change

  7. WORST CASE SCENARIO High degree of climate change Low degree of response

  8. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO Mid range degree of climate change by 2030 Summer temperatures + 1.6ºC Summer rainfall – 7% Winter temperatures + 1.3ºC Winter rainfall + 7% Moderately positive degree of response

  9. CROPS AND GRASS Increased yields, but with greater variability Little change in area of winter wheat and oil seed rape, but crop varieties and management methods likely to change More forage maize and bioenergy crops, and also novel crops Perhaps some small vineyards Little change in area of grassland, although its management may become more extensive

  10. LIVESTOCK Continuing reduction in livestock numbers Main reductions expected in dairy cattle and pigs, with numbers of beef cattle and sheep reducing more gradually Heat stress in summer could impact on livestock fertility, lactation and growth rates New types and breeds of livestock likely to be introduced

  11. OTHER FARMING TRENDS Greater incidence of pests and diseases Greater importance attached to soil and nutrient management, water conservation and energy efficiency More on-farm renewable energy production More mixed farming and diversified enterprises More cooperation between farms

  12. SUMMARY OF FARMING IMPACTS (1) 2007trend to 2030 Wheat 31,421 ha  Oil seed rape 12,902 ha  Spring barley 8,640 ha  Maize 1,489 ha  Set-aside/bare/fallow 11,509 ha  Temp. & perm. grassland 80,964 ha  Rough grazing 3,726 ha  Area of biofuel/biomass crops  Area of novel crops  Area of forage crops  Crop and grass yields  Variability in yield & quality  Crop failure  Pests and diseases in crops  Types of crop rotation  Baling/sale/export of straw 

  13. SUMMARY OF FARMING IMPACTS (2) 2007trend to 2030 Dairy cows 11,516  Beef cows 10,779  Total cattle 69,872  Pigs 23,060  Sheep 258,477  Livestock fertility  Livestock lactation  Livestock growth rates  New types and breeds of stock  Traditional and hill breeds  Pests and diseases in livestock  Retention of manure and slurry  Mixed farming  Diversified enterprises  Soil and nutrient management  Energy efficiency measures  Energy production on-farm  Water conservation measures  Long term planning  Risk management 

  14. FORESTRY IMPACTS Increased timber and biomass yields Timber quality affected by summer droughts Oak and sweet chestnut will fare well Beech could be affected by drought More damage from fungal diseases and insect and other pests More wind damage and increased risks of fire Planting regimes made more resilient to climate change The trend towards broadleaves continues Market opportunities

  15. SUMMARY OF FORESTRY IMPACTS 2007trend to 2030 Broadleaved woodland 13,445 ha  Coniferous woodland 3,161ha  Total Woodland 20,657 ha  Timber and biomass yields  Timber quality  Variability in species success  Damage from wind, pests, disease and fire  Woodland gaps and patchiness  Changes in rotation length/ thinning  Mixed species/provenance planting  Higher stocking rates  Planting to buffer/connect  Woodfuel/bio-energy sector  Diversified enterprises 

  16. FARMING, FORESTRY AND ECOSYSTEM SERVICES Improving carbon storage Contributing to water management Reducing greenhouse gas emissions

  17. POLICY AND PLANNING Climate change-proof all AONB policies Develop a Climate Change Action Plan

  18. RESEARCH AND MONITORING Develop a set farming and forestry change indicators Support appropriate research activity to inform management

  19. LANDSCAPE Refine and adapt Environmental Stewardship and England Woodland Grant Scheme prescriptions to suit changing landscape and biodiversity needs Promote the protection, expansion and linking of key habitats Climate change-proof and refine the Board’s landscape strategy and guidelines

  20. DIVERSIFICATION AND BUSINESS SUPPORT Project officer to promote diversification activities which contribute to climate change adaptation and mitigation

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