MET 112 Global Climate Change:

1. MET 112 Global Climate Change: Controls on Climate Change (IPCC Report) Professor Menglin Jin Outline: • IPCC • CA Efforts on Energy • Kyoto Treat

2. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change ‘stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic human induced interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner’

3. Figure: Courtesy of IPCC

4. http://www.ipcc.ch/

5. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific BasisWGI contribution to IPCC Third Assessment Report Summary for Policymakers (SPM) Drafted by a team of 59 Approved ‘sentence by sentence’ by WGI plenary (99 Governments and 45 scientists) 14 chapters 881 pages 120 Lead Authors 515 Contributing Authors 4621 References quoted

6. IPCC Assessment Report • IPCC-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change • Greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise (warming). • Anthropogenic aerosols tend to produce negative radiative forcing (cooling) “The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate” (IPCC) 1997 "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.“ (IPCC),2001 The IPCC finds that it is “very likely” that emissions of heat-trapping gases from human activities have caused “most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century. (IPCC) 2007

7. Human Responsibility for Climate Change The IPCC finds that it is “very likely” that emissions of heat-trapping gases from human activities have caused “most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century.” Source: IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis—Summary for Policymakers.

8. Emission Scenarios SRES (special report on emission scenarios)

9. Scenarios

10. CO2 concentrations (amount)

11. Model Sensitivity Models (like the atmosphere) are sensitive systems. They can respond differently to the same radiative forcing, e.g., a doubling of CO2 This means that different models give different answers to the same problem Thus, we use a range of models to determine the range of possible future scenarios. 13

12. Future Predictions: Temperature

13. Notes on Temperature Projections • Projected Warming: 2000 – 2100 ranges from ~1.4°C to ~5.8°C. • Curves represent warming produced for seven scenarios by a model with average sensitivity. • Each bar on right represent range of warming produced • by models of differing sensitivities for a specific scenario.

14. Land areas are projected to warm more than the oceans with the greatest warming at high latitudes Annual mean temperature change, 2071 to 2100 relative to 1990: Global Average in 2085 = 3.1oC

15. Some areas are projected to become wetter, others drier with an overall increase projected Annual mean precipitation change: 2071 to 2100 Relative to 1990

16. Sea Level

17. Sea Level Rise Annual mean precipitation change: 2071 to 2100 Relative to 1990

20. Tons of CO2 emitted per person

21. US CO2 Emissions • Total emissions ~ 5,788.5 million metric tons • ~ 22 metric tons per person • Industry: 35% • Transportation: 33% • Residences: 18% • Commercial: 14% • 1,600 million metric tons due to personal use (~33%)

22. Average US Personal Energy Use (Per Person) • Automobile fuel: 38 gallons per month Natural Gas: 15 therms per month • Electricity: 190 Kilowatt-hours per month • Airline Miles flown  147 miles per monthTotal: • Latest estimate ~ 17,600 lbs of CO2 • Kyoto allowance (for US): • ~11,000 pounds • To stabilize climate (550ppm) • 4,700 pounds

23. Mitigation of climate change • Mitigation: • Steps taken to avoid or minimize negative environmental impacts. • Mitigation can include: • avoiding the impact by not taking a certain action; • minimizing impacts by limiting the degree or • magnitude of the action; • rectifying the impact by repairing or • restoring the affected environment

24. The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto, Japan, on 11 December 1997 and entered into force on 16 February 2005 The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement linked to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The major feature of the Kyoto Protocol is that it sets binding targets for 37 industrialized countries and the European community for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. These amount to an average of five per cent against 1990 levels over the five-year period 2008-2012.

25. The Kyoto Protocol • A United Nations sponsored effort: • Calls for reductions of greenhouse gas emissions by industrialized countries of 5.2 per cent below 1990 levels. • The Protocol will go into force after • The protocol has been ratified by a minimum of 55 countries. • The ratifying nations comprise 55% of global greenhouse gas emissions. • Current status: • 191 countries have signed accounting for 61% of global CO2. • US not planning on signing protocol (US accounts for 36% of CO2 emitted) • Kyoto protocol went into force in Feb 2005

26. Kyoto Protocol • Aim: • Ways to reduce increasing GHG • Goals: • Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy

28. Kyoto Protocol • Aim: • Ways to reduce increasing GHG • Goals: • Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy • Protection and enhancement of sinks

30. Kyoto Protocol • Aim: • Ways to reduce increasing GHG • Goals: • Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy • Protection and enhancement of sinks • Promote sustainable agriculture

32. Kyoto Protocol • Aim: • Ways to reduce increasing GHG • Goals: • Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy • Protection and enhancement of sinks • Promote sustainable agriculture • Research and promote new and renewable energy

39. Kyoto Protocol • Aim: • Ways to reduce increasing GHG • Goals: • Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy • Protection and enhancement of sinks • Promote sustainable agriculture • Research and promote new and renewable energy • Phase out any incentives for ‘bad practice’

41. Kyoto Protocol • Aim: • Ways to reduce increasing GHG • Goals: • Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy • Protection and enhancement of sinks • Promote sustainable agriculture • Research and promote new and renewable energy • Phase out any incentives for ‘bad practice’ • Encourage ‘good practices’

44. Kyoto Protocol Aim: Ways to reduce increasing GHG Goals: Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy Protection and enhancement of sinks Promote sustainable agriculture Research and promote new and renewable energy Phase out any incentives for ‘bad practice’ Encourage ‘good practices’ Cut GHG from aviation 48

45. Kyoto Targets • Industrialized countries will reduce their collective emissions by 5.2% compared to the year 1990 • Note that compared to the emissions levels by 2010 without the Protocol, this target represents ~30% cut). • Calculated as an average • over the five-year period of 2008-12. • Target includes six greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulfur hexafluoride, HFCs, and PFCs

46. HFC - Hydrofluorocarbons • PFC- perfluorocarbon, a powerful greenhouse gas emitted during the production of aluminumPFC

47. Kyoto Targets • National targets • European Union - 8% below 1990 levels • USA - 7% below 1990 • Japan - 6% below 1990 • Russia 0% (stay at 1990 levels) • Australia 8% over 1990 levels) • Developing countries (no target) • China, India etc.

48. Kyoto Targets: Developing countries • The UN Framework on Climate has agreed: • The largest share of historical and current global emissions of greenhouse gases • has originated in developed countries; • Per capita emissions in developing countries • are still relatively low; • The share of global emissions originating in developing countries • will grow to meet their social and development needs.

49. The Kyoto Mechanisms • Under the Treaty, countries must meet their targets primarily through national measures. However, the Kyoto Protocol offers them an additional means of meeting their targets by way ofthree market-basedmechanisms. • The Kyoto mechanisms are: • Emissions trading – known as “the carbon market"  • Clean development mechanism (CDM) • Joint implementation (JI).

50. Kyoto Protocol Mechanisms • Keep to assigned amounts of GHG with overall worldwide reduction by at least 5% below 1990 levels by 2008-2012 • Countries can meet their commitments together • Joint implementation -Countries can work together to meet their emission reduction targets. • Richer (annex 1) countries can help developing countries to achieve sustainable development and limit GHG increases and then claim some emission reductions for their own targets • Emissions trading - countries can trade in ‘emission units’