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WHAT IS CLIMATE CHANGE? Anthony R.E. Sinclair Biology 302, Section 201

WHAT IS CLIMATE CHANGE? Anthony R.E. Sinclair Biology 302, Section 201. Climate change refers to the increase in global temperature due to the release of gases from Human population increase and its activities. THE INTERCONNECTED EFFECTS OF HUMANS ON THE WORLD. The first evidence.

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WHAT IS CLIMATE CHANGE? Anthony R.E. Sinclair Biology 302, Section 201

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  1. WHAT IS CLIMATE CHANGE?Anthony R.E. SinclairBiology 302, Section 201 Climate change refers to the increase in global temperature due to the release of gases from Human population increase and its activities

  2. THE INTERCONNECTED EFFECTS OF HUMANS ON THE WORLD

  3. The first evidence Concentration of CO2 emissions in Hawaii Krebs Fig. 28.9; p592

  4. Next Fig.

  5. HEAT RETENTION The gases help to trap heat from the sun instead of reflecting it away from Earth Results in an increase of air temperature at a rate that is not seen historically This reflects the effects of humans

  6. GLOBAL TEMPERATURE – put it into perspective Historically global temperature has varied considerably 1. Over the past 1 billion years there is a 300 M year hot-cold cycle 2. Over past 400,000 years there are clear fluctuations that are also seen in shorter time sales of 10,000 years

  7. GREENHOUSE – ICEHOUSE EPISODES Covering 1 billion years

  8. 100 200 300 400 TEMPERATURE CHANGE OVER 400,000 YEARS –from ocean cores 100 100 100 100 100 100 200 200 200 200 200 300 300 300 300 400 400 400 An estimate of temperature variations over last 400,000 years, obtained by comparing O2 isotope ratios in fossils taken from ocean cores in the Caribbean. Dashed line is the ratio from 100,000 years ago.

  9. Average temperature 1902-1980 Next Fig. Note the sudden increase at present time

  10. Average temperature 1902-1980 Next Fig.

  11. Estimated mean global surface temperatures, 1860 – 1990, relative to 1940 1940

  12. -AFFECTS THE ARCTIC ESPECIALLY

  13. TEMPERATURE will lead to • +3C at equator, and +5-8C at poles • 0.6C increase in world temperatures since 1900 • 2nd warmest year historically was 1997; warmest was 1998

  14. CLIMATE CHANGE: CAUSES

  15. TEMPERATURE CHANGE AND CO2 ARE RELATED

  16. Coal burning power plants put 1. particles into the air 2. Carbon dioxide into air

  17. INNER MONGOLIA – smog from coal fired plants

  18. GERMANY

  19. BURNING UNWANTED GAS AT OIL RIGS

  20. Vehicle exhaust fumes

  21. CARBON CYCLING • (Krebs p590-600) • CO2 is in the atmosphere at 0.03% • 99% locked up in coal, oil, limestone, chalk etc. Human activity produces about 5-10% of natural emissions • some 93% due to fossil fuels, 7% from deforestation • before industrial revolution280ppm • currently about 355ppm • projected to be 700ppm by 2100 (unless rather profound change to human activities)

  22. DEFORESTATION REDUCES GLOBAL ABILITY TO ABSORB CO2

  23. WHO IS PRODUCING CO2? • US Energy Information Admin forecast that world emissions will increase by 54% above 1990 levels by 2015, or x2 CO2 in about 40 years (2030) • Canada produces only 2% of global greenhouse emissions (but with 0.5% of world’s population) • From 1960–1990, Canadian emissions increased by 250% • GCM (General Circulation Models) predict x2 CO2 = increase 1.3 to 4.5C

  24. TOP 10 COUNTRIES CO2 EMISSIONS TOTAL OUTPUT (M tonnes/yr) IN 2000 CO2 EMISSIONS % change 1990-2000 Source World Res Inst 2008)

  25. CLIMATE CHANGE: CAUSES 1. Power stations – coal, gas 2. Vehicles 3. Fires – homes & forest 4. Decomposition – garbage 5. Plant respiration

  26. CLIMATE CHANGE: CONSEQUENCES 1. PHYSICAL 2. BIOLOGICAL 3. ECONOMIC - SOCIAL

  27. CLIMATE CHANGE: CONSEQUENCES 1. PHYSICAL EFFECTS

  28. GLOBAL ICE MELT • Ice cap is melting faster than predicted in Antarctica • retreat of glaciers worldwide • N-ward movement of permafrost in the Mackenzie River Basin

  29. Antarctic ice shelves melting

  30. SEA LEVEL RISE We already see a +25cm sea level rise in past 100 years

  31. New study says sea levels rising due to a warming ocean – not melting ice

  32. Alaska island becoming submerged by rising sea level

  33. VANCOUVER -Richmond will be flooded

  34. Glacial ice melt over 76 years of the Upsala glacier in Patagonia, Argentina

  35. WORLD GLACIERS LOSING ICE THICKNESS

  36. HUBBARD GLACIER, ALASKA – warmer climate has caused surges –

  37. Which blocked the bay, created a lake and threatened a town, • as in 1993

  38. Alaska melting permafrost is causing soil erosion

  39. HURRICANE KATRINA OVER NEW ORLEANS - Warmer climate puts more energy into storms

  40. PHYSICAL EFFECTS 1. Melting of ice caps, 2. Rise in sea level – more water + warmer water 3. Retreat of glaciers 4. Melting of permafrost in Arctic 5. More violent stroms

  41. CLIMATE CHANGE: CONSEQUENCES 2. BIOLOGICAL EFFECTS

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