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Michael Prather Kavli Chair & Professor Earth System Science UC Irvine

Global Climate Change A tutorial on climate change causes, trends & regulations. Michael Prather Kavli Chair & Professor Earth System Science UC Irvine. Q: What drives Global Climate Change ?. Changes in Atmospheric Composition

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Michael Prather Kavli Chair & Professor Earth System Science UC Irvine

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  1. Global Climate ChangeA tutorial on climate change causes, trends & regulations Michael Prather Kavli Chair & Professor Earth System Science UC Irvine

  2. Q: What drives Global Climate Change ? Changes in Atmospheric Composition greenhouse gases, aerosols, clouds, water vapor + Changes in Land Use deforestation, desertification, ... + Changes in Solar Output = Perturbation to Radiative Balance of the “Climate System” troposphere, land, and ocean

  3. Q: What is Radiative Forcing ? Solar Heating of the climate system  200 W m-2 is balanced by  Terrestrial InfraRed Cooling 200 W m-2 Greenhouse Gases trap Terrestrial IR

  4. Q: What is Radiative Forcing ? A perturbation to the climate system – either natural or anthropogenic – Is evaluated by the radiative imbalance that it causes – before the system adjusts – Is calculated as the global mean Radiative Forcing – RF in units of W m-2 – Current anthropogenic RF from greenhouse gases  +3 W m-2

  5. Q: What is today’s anthropogenic Radiative Forcing ?

  6. Q: What is the History of Anthropogenic RF ? COOLINGWARMING

  7. Q: What about natural solar forcing ?

  8. Q: Is the Observed Temperature Change Consistent with Greenhouse Gases ? Climate Model Simulations  (a) with only natural forcing (solar, volcanoes)  (b) with also anthropogenic gases and aerosols

  9. Q: Why worry about climate change ?

  10. Q: Why worry about climate change ?

  11. Q: Why worry about climate change ?

  12. Q: Why worry about climate change ?

  13. Q: What Conventions/Protocols govern Climate Change? 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change adopted in 1992 and entered into force in 1994 (188 ratification – 28 Jan 2003) 1997 Kyoto Protocol needs 55 parties with 55% of 1990 CO2 emissions (104 ratification, 43.9% of Annex I – 28 Jan 2003)

  14. Q: What Conventions/Protocols govern Climate Change? UN FCCC ARTICLE 2 OBJECTIVE The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.

  15. Q: What Conventions/Protocols govern Climate Change? UN FCCC ARTICLE 4 COMMITMENTS 4.1....All Parties, …, shall: (b)....Formulate, implement, publish and regularly update national and, where appropriate, regional programmes containing measures to mitigate climate change by addressing anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of all greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol, and measures to facilitate adequate adaptation to climate change; 4.2...The developed country Parties (Annex I) commit themselves …: (a)....Each of these Parties shall adopt national policies and take corresponding measures on the mitigation of climate change, by limiting its anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and protecting and enhancing its greenhouse gas sinks and reservoirs.

  16. Q: What Conventions/Protocols govern Climate Change? Kyoto Protocol Article 3.1The Parties included in Annex I shall, individually or jointly, ensure that their aggregate anthropogenic carbon dioxide equivalent emissions of the greenhouse gases listed in Annex A do not exceed their assigned amounts, calculated pursuant to their quantified emission limitation and reduction commitments inscribed in Annex B and in accordance with the provisions of this Article, with a view to reducing their overall emissions of such gases by at least 5 per cent below 1990 levels in the commitment period 2008 to 2012.

  17. Q: What Conventions/Protocols govern Climate Change? Kyoto Protocol Annex A Greenhouse gasesCarbon dioxide (CO2) Methane (CH4) Nitrous oxide (N2O) Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6)Sectors/source categoriesEnergy, Fuel combustion, Energy industries, Manufacturing industries and construction, Transport, Other sectors, Fugitive emissions from fuels, Solid fuels, Oil and natural gas, Mineral products, Chemical industry, Metal production, Production of halocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride Consumption of halocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride Agriculture, Enteric fermentation, Manure management Rice cultivation, Agricultural soils, Prescribed burning of savannas Field burning of agricultural residues, Waste, Wastewater handling, Other

  18. Q: What Conventions/Protocols govern Climate Change? Kyoto Protocol Annex B Commitment 2008-2012 to 1990 (%) Australia 108 Austria 92 Belgium 92 Bulgaria* 92 Canada 94 Croatia* 95 Czech Republic* 92 Denmark 92 Estonia* 92 European Community 92 Finland 92 France 92 Germany 92 Greece 92 Hungary* 94 Iceland 110 Ireland 92 Italy 92 Japan 94 Latvia* 92 Liechtenstein 92 Lithuania* 92 Luxembourg 92 Monaco 92 Netherlands 92 New Zealand 100 Norway 101 Poland* 94 Portugal 92 Romania* 92 Romania* 92 Russian Federation* 100 Slovakia* 92 Slovenia* 92 Spain 92 Sweden 92 Switzerland 92 Ukraine* 100 United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland 92 United States of America 93

  19. Q: What are other Conventions and Protocols ? 1985 Vienna Convention on the Protection of the Ozone Layer secure a general treaty to tackle ozone depletion 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (175 ratification – Dec 2000) 1990 London (144 ratification – Dec 2000) 1992 Copenhagen 1995 Vienna . . .

  20. Q: What are other Conventions and Protocols ? • 1979 Geneva Convention on Long-range • Transboundary Air Pollution • interrelationship between sulfur emissions in continental Europe and the acidification of Scandinavian lakes. • (48 ratification [all Europe] – Dec 2001) • 1985 Helsinki Protocol on the Reduction of Sulfur Emissions or their Transboundary Fluxes by at least 30 %(19 signatories / 22 ratification [+Canada] – Dec 2001) • 1988 Sofia Protocol concerning the Control of Emissions of Nitrogen Oxides or their Transboundary Fluxes (25 signatories / 28 ratification [+U.S.+Canada] – Dec 2001) • 1999 Gothenburg Protocol to Abate Acidification, Eutrophication and Ground-level Ozone (31 signatories / 1 ratification – Dec 2001)

  21. Q: What are other Conventions and Protocols ? • United Nations Convention on • Biological Diversity • (182 Parties / 168 signatories [-U.S.] – Sep 2001) The objectives of this Convention, to be pursued in accordance with its relevant provisions, are the conservation of biological diversity, the sustainable use of its components and the fair and equitable sharing of the benefits arising out of the utilization of genetic resources, including by appropriate access to genetic resources and by appropriate transfer of relevant technologies, taking into account all rights over those resources and to technologies, and by appropriate funding.

  22. Q: What do we mean by Climate Change ? Climate changein IPCC usage refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. Climate change in the UN FCCCrefers to a change of climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and that is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.

  23. Q: What is the IPCC? The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988. The role of the IPCC is to assess the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant for the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change. It does not carry out new research nor does it monitor climate related data. It bases its assessment mainly on published and peer reviewed scientific technical literature.

  24. Q: What is the IPCC? The IPCC has three Working Groups + Task Force: Working Group I assesses the scientific aspects of the climate system and climate change. Working Group II assesses the vulnerability of socio-economic and natural systems to climate change, consequences of and options for adapting to it. Working Group III assesses options for limiting greenhouse gas emissions and otherwise mitigating climate change. Task Force on Greenhouse Gas Inventories oversees the national reporting programs and requirements.

  25. Q: What are the IPCC Assessments ? Delegations of 99 IPCC member countries participated in the Eighth Session of Working Group I in Shanghai on 17 to 20 January 2001 and approved the WGI SPM word-for-word.

  26. Q: What are the IPCC Assessments ? Robert Watson, IPCC Chair, John Houghton & Ding Yihui, WGI Co-chairs, 122 Coordinating Lead Authors & Lead Authors, 515 Contributing Authors, 21 Review Editors, and 420 Expert Reviewers (incl. gov’ts). prepared the WG I scientific assessment: http://www.ipcc.ch/ IPCC Madrid Nov 95

  27. Q: What Biogeochemical Cycles control Atmospheric CO2 ? The Natural Carbon Cycle (Pg-C = Gton-C, Pg-C/yr)

  28. Q: How have we perturbed CO2 ? The Human Perturbation to the Carbon Cycle: 1980s

  29. Q: Where have CO2 emissions come from?

  30. Q: Where will energy-CO2 emissions come from?

  31. Q: What about alternative energy sources or conservation ? OECD / IEA 2002

  32. Q: What is the big uncertainty in future CO2 ? Model Projections / Simulations of uptake of Anthropogenic CO2 show possible “saturation” effects.

  33. Q: What is Projected for Atmospheric CO2 ? IPCC 2001 Projections

  34. Q: What about the other Greenhouse Gases & Aerosols?

  35. Q: What Greenhouse Agents are Listed under Kyoto ? listed in Annex A Carbon dioxide (CO2) Methane (CH4) Nitrous oxide (N2O) Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) What are not ? CFCs & HCFCs (Montreal - OK) Sulfate Aerosols Black & Organic Carbon Aerosols Tropospheric Ozone (O3) Carbon monoxide (CO) Nitrogen Oxides (NOX)

  36. Q: How does Energy Use control the old GHGases ? CH4emissions (600 Tg-CH4/yr) energy use 18% biomass burning 6% pollution impact on lifetime ??% N2O emissions (16 Tg-N/yr) industrial 8% biomass burning 3% agriculture 35% CFC & HCFC emissions (<< 1 Tg/yr) refrigeration, foam, propellant, cleaning phased out under Montreal Protocol

  37. Q: How does Energy Use control the new GHGases ? PFCs = CF4 + ... (13 Gg/yr ++) anthropogenic 100% aluminum, industrial SF6 emissions (6 Gg/yr ++) anthropogenic 100% insulation, electrical switches HFC emissions (100 Gg/yr ++) anthropogenic 100% CFC partial replacements

  38. Q: How does Energy Use control the Aerosols ? sulfate = SO2 emissions(110 Tg-S/yr) energy use 67% biomass burning 2% Black Carbon emissions (12 Tg/yr) energy use 55% biomass burning 45% Carbonaceous emissions (140 Tg/yr) energy use 20% biomass burning 39%

  39. Q: How does Energy Use control the pollution gases ? CO emissions (2800 Tg-CO/yr) energy use 32% biomass burning 25% NOX emissions (52 Tg-N/yr) energy use 65% biomass burning 14% VOC emissions (600 Tg-C/yr) energy use 28% biomass burning 6%

  40. Q: How do non-greenhouse Pollutants impact Climate ? CH4 CH4 CO VOC HFC OH HO2 NO O3 CO, VOC, NOX(=NO+NO2), & CH4 control Tropospheric Chemistry is the sink for CH4 & HFCs; the source for O3

  41. Q: How does CO become an indirect greenhouse gas ? CO OH CH4 O3 CO emissions are effectively equivalent toCH4 emissions: 100 Tg-CO = 5 Tg-CH4 (IPCC, 2001)

  42. CO OH CH4 O3

  43. Q: How does short-lived NOx impact Climate ? O3 NOX OH CH4 O3

  44. Anthropogenic GHGas Impact through Reactive Pollutants to date CH4320 Tg(CH4)/y = direct emission NOx 40 Tg(N)/y - 80 Tg(CH4)/y CO 1000 Tg/y + 50 Tg(CH4)/y VOC 250 Tg/y + 30 Tg(CH4)/y

  45. Q: What are the range of projections ?

  46. Q: What is the inertia of the climate system ?

  47. Q: To Whom does all this get reported ? Marrakech Nov 2001

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