ESS 501 Introduction to Near Earth Space

1. ESS 501IntroductiontoNearEarthSpace , Yurdanur Tulunay Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi Havacılık ve Uzay Mühendisliği, 06531 Ankara (e-mail: ytulunay@ae.metu.edu.tr) ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU

2. Earth System ScienceSpace WeatherandTechnology Yurdanur Tulunay Middle East Technical University , Department of Aerospace Engineering, 06531 Ankara (e-mail: ytulunay@metu.edu.tr) ESS 501 ODTÜ/METUAnkara

3. Content • Introduction • What is ESS • What is Space Weather • L. Lanzerrotti’s Presentation • Examples • What do we do • Results conclusion ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara

4. Introduction • Since 1980 a paradigm emerged in geosciences, analogous to • plate tectonics revolution of 1950s and 1960s. ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara

5. (Paradigm : It typically defines what a given individual is willing to accept of her or his field, or how they perform their own work within it, Oxford Dictionary) ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara

6. This paradigm called "Earth System Science"(ESS) or "Earth System" ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara http://serc.carleton.edu/introgeo/earthsystem/index.html

7. EARTH onlyplanet weknow of that sustains LIFE ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara http://serc.carleton.edu/introgeo/earthsystem/index.html

8. Acknowledges • changes in the solid earth • changes result from interactions among • NES,Atmosphere, Hydrosphere, Biosphere and Lithosphere ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara http://serc.carleton.edu/introgeo/earthsystem/index.html

9. Changes in the solid E+ result from interactions among the atmosphere - hydrosphere-biosphere and the lithosphere ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara http://serc.carleton.edu/introgeo/earthsystem/index.html

10. Example Increasing awareness of the role of microbes in generating ore deposits. ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara http://serc.carleton.edu/introgeo/earthsystem/index.html

11. Example The way tectonics influences weathering rates, which in turn affect global climate. ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara http://serc.carleton.edu/introgeo/earthsystem/index.html

12. ESS systematically introduces concepts and resources centered on space – air – water – land – life and human dimensions. ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara http://serc.carleton.edu/introgeo/earthsystem/index.html

13. In the following slide the concept of a pyramidal structure illustrates the relation of the ESS and global change education in the larger interest of society. At the lower level of the pyramid information and knowledge from the basic sciences , disciplines are important. ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara

14. The next level is information and knowledge show how to integrate the discipline of interest with the other relevant disciplines. Within the pyramidal structure one can find out who will advise, manage, direct and lead humankind activities. ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara

15. Within the pyramidal structure one can find out who will advise, manage, direct and lead humankind activities D. Johnson. M. Ruzek, M. Kalb, Computer and Geosciences, vol.26, pp.660-676, 2000) ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara

16. Future of our planet and destiny of humankind are dependent upon this interdisciplinary pyramid of ES forms the scientific integrating basis for any discussion of the system as a whole. ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara http://serc.carleton.edu/introgeo/earthsystem/index.html

17. There is no process or phenomenon within the ES which occurs in complete isolation from the other elements of the system from the other elements of the system , in particular the Sun, therefore, the Near Earth Space (NES) ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara

18. Future of our planet and destiny of humankind are dependent upon this interdisciplinary pyramid of ES forms the scientific integrating basis for any discussion of the system as a whole. ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara http://serc.carleton.edu/introgeo/earthsystem/index.html

19. In the mid-1980’s NASA began a systems approach to cataloging the elements of the Earth System, their linkages, dependences and fluxes. This simplified version focuses on the physical elements of the system, but relegates human processes to a simple box. i.e. Physical Elements of the system and human processes forming a simple box. http://serc.carleton.edu/introgeo/earthssystem/index.html ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara

20. CHALLENGE is : How to quantify various elements, states, and processes within the system ? As an illustration, next slide shows the relevant interactions of physical and dynamical properties. The scales involved vary (i)in spatial scales: from mm to the circumference of the Earth (ii) in temporal scales: from seconds to billion of years 20 7.9.2014 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara

21. Physical Elements of the system and human processes forming a simple box System approach: Elements of the E+ system, their linkages, dependenciesand fluxes ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara http://serc.carleton.edu/introgeo/earthsystem/index.html

22. From space can view the Earth as a whole system, observe the net results of complex interactions, ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara http://serc.carleton.edu/introgeo/earthsystem/index.html

23. begin to understand how the planet is changing in response to natural and human influences ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara http://serc.carleton.edu/introgeo/earthsystem/index.html

24. ESS has begun to understand and quantify the effects of “forcings” on the climate system ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara http://serc.carleton.edu/introgeo/earthsystem/index.html

25. The next slide estimates of the globally and annually averaged radiative forcings (in watt/sq.m) due to a number of anthropogenic and natural factors from pre-industrial times (1750) to 2000. The height of the rectangular bars indicates mid-range estimates of the FORCINGS: ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara

26. (Houghton, J., 2002) ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara

27. The error bars show estimates of the uncertainty ranges. Note that only the range of values, not a central estimate, is shown for the indirect aeorosol forcing, because of its large uncertainty. The contribution of individiual gases to the direct greenhouse forcing are indicated in the first bar; the forcings associated with changes in Ozone are shown in the second and third bars. ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara

28. Estimates of the forcings (globally averaged values) due to changes in aerosols are shown in the following bars. The last two bars are estimates of the forcings associated with changes in land use because of the changes in albedo and with possible variations in the input of solar radiation. Also included is an index of scientific understanding for each forcing representing a subjective judgement about the degree of knowledge and understanding regarding the mechanisms involved. (“Summary of Policymakers”, IPCC,2001) ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara

29. In the ESS , the various processes act in concert to define both a backgound state (CLIMATOLOGY) and a disturbed state (WEATHER) (R.W.Schunk, Space Weather, Geophysical Monograph 125,AGU, WDC, 2001). In other words, slow variations of long term averages are the subject of climatology ; and the short term variations are the subject of weather. The influence of fluctuations of the solar source can be the atmost importance for the terrestrial climate (besides, continential drift, ocean currents, vulcanism; position of the Earth in space, the fall of the bodies into the NES etc.) ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara

30. This influence can be direct: (i) if solar irradiance is tied with solar magnetic activity , it is reasonable to expect that irradiance and sunspot numbers are correlated with each other. In order to determine whether a climatic effect is visible , we must have irradiance information available on climatic scales of many decades to centuries. Unfortunately, irradiance data goes back to only 1980’s . (SWARM-Internet Space Weather and Radio Propagation Forecasting Course, 1996-2001) . In other words, Solar radiation varies according to the nature of the emission site-a sunspot does not radiate in the same way as a facula or a coronal hole. A variation of 0.3 % of the solar constant(!) (i.e. 4 Watts per Sq.m) results in average variation of 0.4 deg.of celsius of the average temperature on the Earth . Certain studies show an influence of the 11 – year solar cycle on some meteorological phenomena. (J. Lilensten and J. Bornarel, Space Weather, Enviroment and Societies ,Springer , 2006) ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara

31. (ii) The written records of the sunspots dates back to 1600 AD. Chinese sunspot observations are sporadic and dates back to 3000-4000 years ago. Indirectly the C 14 content in trees will be anticorrelated with solar activity. That is, C 14 is produced by the cosmic rays . Due to the Forbusch decrease if cosmic ray concentration is low, then this period is a high sunspot or active solar activity period. There exist very early observations of auroral observations from Chine, Japan and Korea. ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara

32. The little ice age was the name given to the period between 1550 to 1750 when winters were so called that the big rivers of mid-latitude Europe froze over. Between 1650 and 1750 there was a heavy draught in the South-West of North America. The whole period correspondance to the Maunder minimum during which there were no sunspots on the Sun. The Sun was unusually active between 1100 and 1250 AD – called “ Grand Maximum”. During this period , even in the northern countries the climate was so mild that wine could be grown at latitudes beyond 50 deg.N ! (F. Jansen, Space Weather Consortium , Space Weather CD-ROM,ESTW, 2002) ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara

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34. climate system produced by solarvariability increasing concentrations of [CO2], aerosols. trends detected also ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara http://serc.carleton.edu/introgeo/earthsystem/index.html

35. What is Space Weather? ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara

36. Our Sun is one of the ordinary stars of the Milky Way Galaxy which consists of about 100 billion stars. The Milky Way (MW) is only one of about 100 billion galaxies that exist in our Universe. • The Sun orbits the center of the MW every 225 million years. Therefore, our solar system rotates around the center of the MW at a speed of 830 000 km per hour. • The sun radiates at all wavelengths from gamma rays to radio waves as depicten ın the next slide. (F. Jansen,2002) ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara

37. The Sun radiates at all wavelengths from gamma rays to radio waves as shown in the next slide. ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara

38. The yellow line shows the Sun’s spectrum form X-rays to radio waves. ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara

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41. Departments of Space Sciences and Technology (ESF-SSC, 1990) ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara

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44. (Courtesy of L.Lanzerotti, ESSW4, 5-9 Nov. 2007, Brussels)STRUCTURE • What is space weather Issues for • Upper atmosphere effects • Charged particle environments • Humans in Space • Upstream drivers of space weather Extreme events Long-term change Summary ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara

45. What is space weather? • Space weather is the physical and phenomenological state of natural space environments. The associated discipline aims, through observation, monitoring, analysis and modelling, at understanding and predicting the state of the sun, the interplanetary and planetary environments, and the solar and non-solar driven perturbations that affect them; and also at forecasting and nowcasting the possible impacts on biological and technological systems. Text: courtesy COST Action 724 Image: courtesy L. Lanzerotti ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara

46. SAR – along-track coherence of ionospheric path E/F region – reflection/refraction – magnetic storms/aurora Comms/GNSS Scintillation – loss of phase lock D region – absorption X-ray flares, protons Upper atmosphere • Dominates (~90%) economic impact of Space Weather • Potentially large Euro market for SpW services • Effects include drag, radio propagation, induction sources ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara

47. Energetic particles in space • Strategic issue for spacecraft design & operations • Potential Euro market for SpW services • Diverse space-based effects • charging – by keV-MeV electrons (rad belt, aurora, plasmasheet, SEP) • radiation damage (e.g. solar cells, DNA) – by > MeV ions (rad belt, SAA, solar events, cosmic rays) • single event effects (state changes in microelectronics) – by >> MeV ions (rad belt, solar events, cosmic rays) Cluster array power 2001-2007 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara Image: courtesy ESA

48. Energetic particles in the atmosphere • Very energetic particles (> GeV) penetrate the atmosphere • Cosmic rays, solar energetic particles • Influx controlled by geomagnetic field (highest at poles) • Collisions generate secondary neutrons (peak flux ~ 20 km, significant at 10 km, some flux at surface) • Cause significant single event effects in avionics • SEE now growing issue for ground-based electronics • dominant factor limiting reliability of digital electronics • major issue for safety-critical systems, e.g. in cars • also issue for range of high-voltage power systems • Cosmic rays also influence atmosphere • Clear link with cloud cover in maritime regions (Harrison, 2006) • Can ~100 keV electrons from cosmic rays seed lightning strokes? • … semiconductor memory failures induced by cosmic radiation are no longer an “aerospace problem”. Such failure mechanisms must be accounted for in automotive electronics systems design. • www.automotivedesignline.com, June 2006 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara

49. Humans in space • Radiation is direct hazard to astronauts • DNA damage, increased cancer risk, • Space station protected by Earth’s magnetic field • Moon and Mars are NOT protected Danger on Mars radiation hits on rover camera The luck of Apollo ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara

50. Upstream drivers • Space Weather is a natural hazard – a consequence of living near a star • Analogous to living next to volcanoes, rivers, etc • Need to understand science that controls this environment • Behaviour of that star • How energy and momentum propagate to our planet • Propagation includes • Solar wind + embedded magnetic field • Plasma transport across magnetopause (confinement boundary) • Magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling – magnetically guided Courtesy NASA Common physics with magnetically confined plasmas for fusion ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara