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Climate Change Overview Samoa Climate Change Summit 2009

Climate Change Overview Samoa Climate Change Summit 2009. Willy Morrell UNDP Samoa Multi Country Office – serving Samoa, Cook Islands, Tokelau and Niue. The Nobel Peace Prize 2007. The Nobel Peace Prize 2007. Science reaches out to public. The Nobel Peace Prize 2007.

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Climate Change Overview Samoa Climate Change Summit 2009

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  1. Climate Change OverviewSamoa Climate Change Summit 2009 Willy Morrell UNDP Samoa Multi Country Office – serving Samoa, Cook Islands, Tokelau and Niue

  2. The Nobel Peace Prize 2007 The Nobel Peace Prize 2007 Science reaches out to public The Nobel Peace Prize 2007 Al Gore and R. K. Pachauri, Chairman of the IPCC

  3. Note: Without natural greenhouse effect mean temperature would be around -18ºC

  4. 27,246,000,000,005 kg • Carbon Dioxide per year • (7,500,000 Cruise Liners) • 1000w Air-Conditioner 10 hours per day •  • 5 kg carbon dioxide

  5. Source: IPCC (2007)

  6. 6º Rising Temperatures Changes in: - Rainfall - Soil evaporation - Physical geography, landscapes - Sea level - Extreme weather - Ecosystem distribution/composition 1.5º

  7. “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising of the global mean sea level.” (IPCC, 2007) The concern is that the climate is changing too rapidly for natural ecosystem and human adaptation.

  8. Climatic variations Time

  9. Predicted regional changes by 2100 • Air temps  1.0 - 4.17ºC in the N. Pacific • Air temps up 0.99 - 3.11ºC in the S. Pacific • Sea temps up 1.0 - 3.0ºC • Ocean pH by 0.3 - 0.4 units • Sea-level rise of 0.19 - 0.58 m • Rainfall -2.7% to +25.8% in the N. Pacific • Rainfall -14% to +14.6% in the S. Pacific • Possible increased frequency and/or intensity of extreme weather events including cyclones

  10. Latest 2009 findings • The Earth is presently tracking towards worst-case impact scenarios outlined in the 2007 IPCC 4AR • The is growing evidence to suggest that these scenarios may be overly conservative • If present greenhouse gas emission trends continue the Pacific region could experience mean sea-level increases of 1m or more • We are locked into some degree of climate change regardless what the industrialized nations do now! - Copenhagen Climate Change Council, April 2009 -

  11. Climate Change MitigationandClimate Change Adaptation are • complementary risk management strategies • The UN Framework Convention for Climate Change (UNFCCC) frames • obligations for each country to implement both strategies Global Climate Change MITIGATION ADAPTATION Greenhouse gas emissions Climate change impacts • Reduce magnitude of global warming • Reduce greenhouse gas emissions • Reduce vulnerability to CC impacts • Reduce human and material losses

  12. Variability in water supply, quality and distribution. More competition and cross-border conflicts over water resources Erosion, inundation, salinisation, stress on mangroves, marshes, wetlands Changes in forest composition, extent, health & productivity COASTAL SYSTEMS WATER RESOURCES ECOSYSTEM SERVICES PUBLIC HEALTH FORESTRY AGRICULTURE Less predictability in crop yield, changing irrigation demand, growing risk of pest infestations Increasing incidents of infectious, water-borne and vector-borne diseases, heat stress & mortality, additional public health costs Loss of habitat, species and protective ecosystems, migratory shifts Climate Change impacts

  13. SCOPING STUDY • Given PIC vulnerability we must primarily focus on adaptation • Strong call from PICs for less consultation and more delivery of ‘concrete’ adaptation measures at the community level to provide case-studies and lessons learnt • A call to focus on adaptation measures that provide short-term development outcomes and build long term resilience (e.g. food security and DRM)

  14. CONTINUED… Also need to continue focus on mitigation measures that provide ‘win-win’ outcomes • Short term poverty reduction • Longer term resilience to climate change • Reduced GHG emissions e.g. renewable energy, sustainable transport, mangrove planting etc

  15. Fa’afetai lava

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