Monitoring and managing technology trends and discontinuities

1. Monitoring and managing technology trends and discontinuities November 15, 2006 Ed Granger-Happ, CTO

2. So what are we going to talk about? • Being a CTO • Save the Children • Crystal Balling – trends and discontinuities • The Case of the Legacy Dilemma • Q&A

3. Ed Granger-HappWho?

4. An introduction • As the title slide says, I’m Ed Granger-Happ • ehapp@savechildren.org • Some things on my resume: • I’m a graduate of Drew University in NJ • I spent 13 years on Wall Street & 10 running my own management consulting business --both in IT • I’ve been at Save the Children 6+ years • Save the Children is my third career

5. An introduction • Some things not on my resume: • I was born on Mother’s Day • I have two step-sons, David (15) and Scott (12); • My wife, Janet, and I founded CT’s first on-line literary magazine in 1997 • www.fairfieldreview.org

6. An introduction • I’ve been a member of the CIO Executive Council since 2005 • I’m also a member of SIM, • The NGO-CIO group, and • An advisor to the IWG/ECB project • I chair an organization called NetHope, which I helped found in 2001 • Details at www.nethope.org

7. What about being a CTO for an international nonprofit? • The pictures say it all…

8. Banda Aceh – Ground Zero

9. What is this large object? a very large ship 5 miles inland in the middle of the road

10. Nepal Server Room

11. Network Director’s Quarters

12. All that’s left of home

13. Save the Childrenwww.savethechildren.org

14. Save the ChildrenSome facts and figures • An international nonprofit relief and development agency • 75 years-old (next year) • In 40 countries, including the U.S. • One of 28 members in the Save the Children Alliance • $397M in operating revenue in 2005 • 44% from Contributions and Private Grants • 32% from Government Grants & Contracts • 8% from Child Sponsorship • 64 million people reached in 2005, half of which were children.

15. However… This says nothing about our mission: Creating real and lasting change for children in need in the United States and around the world.

16. Or our brand Save the Children

17. yet this does not say half as much as meeting a child in a Manila shantytown face-to-face…

19. There comes a time in your life when your agenda shifts from success to significance When will that be? A Question

20. Monitoring Trends and Discontinuities Or Windexing the Crystal Ball

21. Some Takeaways • Cultivate peripheral vision • Pilot your way to knowing • Have the humility to let it go

22. Some strategic questions • What type of “futures” organization will you be? • Where do you look for future trends? • Will future innovation come from strategic intent or natural selection? • What are the fail-fast experiments you will run? • What side will you take on divergent choices? • How do you embrace surprises and revolutions?

23. "The art of prophecy is very difficult-- especially with respect to the future." --Mark Twain

24. Trends Main Entry: trendFunction: noun 1:a line of general direction or movement <the trend of the coast turned toward the west>2 a: a prevailing tendency or inclination : DRIFT <current trends in education> b: a general movement : SWING <the trend toward suburban living> c: a current style or preference : VOGUE <new fashion trends> d: a line of development : APPROACH <new trends in cancer research>

25. Divergences • Main Entry: di·ver·genceFunction: noun1 a: a drawing apart (as of lines extending from a common center) b: DIFFERENCE, DISAGREEMENTc: the acquisition of dissimilar characters by related organisms in unlike environments2: a deviation from a course or standard3: the condition of being mathematically divergent

26. Trends, Divergences, OK—But Discontinuities?? Main Entry: dis·con·ti·nu·ityFunction: noun1:lack of continuity or cohesion2: GAP

27. A Picture A Discontinuity A Divergence A Trend

28. 1. What type of “futures” organization will you be? • First-movers – the pioneers, trail-blazers, fast & agile leaders • but with higher costs and higher risks—requires serious focus • Second-movers – the fast followers; capitalize on the mistakes/learning of pioneers; • follow the successes, but need to overcome the leaders • Frugal-movers – the pragmatic followers; more cautiously follows industry leaders, picking what works well, waiting for lower costs of entry; • may constantly be in catch-up mode • Late-movers – the laggards, miss most opportunities, resist change; • sometimes get lucky

29. 2. Where do you look for future trends? • Books, Journals, Conferences • Futurists –Paul Saffo • “Let the trends lead” ..looking for the “weak signals.” • Economists –Martin Wolf • “China is becoming a global trading state—the biggest change in our life-time." • Demographers –David DeLong • “More than 50% of IT workers in US government are eligible to retire by 2013” • Other Industries • Hitachi auto example –Damian Smith

30. Auto Industry 20 Years Ago • Software Today Business growth slowing Industry consolidation Technology innovation slowing Move to offshore manufacturing Globalization of competition Business growth slowing Industry consolidation Technology innovation slowing Move to offshore development Globalization of competition • Auto Industry Today • Software in 10 Years Common application platforms Niche applications, products & brands Global competitors Offshore service development Onshore application assembly Common product platforms Niche products & brands Global competitors Offshore component manufacturing Onshore product assembly • Inspiring Your Next Success!® • © Copyright 2006 Hitachi Consulting All Rights Reserved, Proprietary and Confidential, For Discussion Purposes Only

31. The history of computing… “It feels like the early 80's in terms of the number of disruptive innovations (like when PCs started)” –Chuck Williams, CIO Pfizer

32. Lest we forget… “Progress, far from consisting in change, depends on retentiveness. Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” –George Santayana

33. Future trends... Where else? • From the field • The case of IM in Manila • The need for headquarters humility • From children • May be more about to whom do you look for future trends? • I watch my boys who are the un-email generation

34. The trend of communications

35. Cultivate a healthy sense of peripheral vision: looking elsewhere, off the trending paths for the signals coming in from left field Discontinuities The bottom line?

36. 3. From where will future innovation come? • Strategic intention? • Natural selection? • Disruptive innovation?

37. The Rise and Fall of Strategic Planning “A good deal of corporate planning ... is like a ritual rain dance. It has no effect on the weather that follows, but those who engage in it think it does. ... Moreover, much of the advice related to corporate planning is directed at improving the dancing, not the weather.”—Brian Quinn, Dartmouth Univ.

38. Natural SelectionDarwinian or Strategic? “If you add enough branches to a tree (variation) and intelligently prune the deadwood (selection), then you’ll likely evolve into a collection of healthy branches well positioned to prosper in a ever-changing environment.” –Jim Collins

39. Disruptive Innovation:Threats and Opportunities “If you look back in history, the disruptees always viewed new technology as a threat. In reality, they were all poised on the brink of a big growth opportunity. But because the way they reacted was first to discount this innovation as meaningful and second to frame it as a threat, they ended up getting killed.” –Clayton Christensen

40. 4. What are the fail-fast experiments you will run? • The logic goes like this: If you need a lot of at-bat-swings to hit a home run, then it’s better to swing at more pitches to hit one out of the park sooner.

41. So… • We funded one guy to visit our field offices and build PDA forms for data collection before making PDAs mainstream • Appointed an engineer to install single VOIP phones on Country Director’s desktops before adopting a VOIP strategy • Ran a find-the-expert knowledge management directory pilot as a throw-away

42. A Bias for Action

43. …and be ready to fail fast Committedby Michael Fry November 21, 2003

44. The bottom line? • Pilot your way to knowing: increase the number of small, fast experiments

45. 5. What side will you take on divergent choices? • Divergent choices are about either-or bets, for example: • Best of breed vs. enterprise database • Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems vs. Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) • Build technology and operations incrementally or leapfrog competitors by buying the best operations.

46. 6. How do you embrace surprises and revolutions? • The case of SKYPE • Most every IT innovation came from outside the established IT department… take the PC • Lyndon Johnson’s observation about the tent

47. The bottom line? • When a surprise comes your way, have the humility to let go of the established technology and embrace the new one • If you don’t, your employees (or competitors) will

48. In conclusion…for the future file • Strategy is about making either-or bets • Risk management is about hedging those bets • Leadership is about having the early humility to admit you were wrong and the courage to act quickly

50. Questions? Truth comes from the dialog