Download
1 / 31
310 likes | 318 Vues
Inconvenient Truths and Uncertain Futures. Summary of HC 434: Physics and Politics of Global Climate Change. Our basic Expectation. Long wavelength absorption properties of our atmosphere increase the surface temperature- Water vapor is the dominant effect, followed by CO2. Ice Core data.
E N D
Inconvenient Truths and Uncertain Futures Summary of HC 434: Physics and Politics of Global Climate Change
Our basic Expectation Long wavelength absorption properties of our atmosphere increase the surface temperature- Water vapor is the dominant effect, followed by CO2
Ice Core data • Provides compelling qualitative evidence of the relation between temperature and CO2 • But time resolution is insufficient to truly show if CO2 is a driver or follower of temperature change
Hockey Stick Problems • Role of urbanization may not be adequately account for • Average temperature of the Earth may not be a physically meaningful quantity. • Reliability of multi-century record is questionable • Two D representation is most convincing
Methane • Potential role of methane is larger than CO2 • GWP = 21 • Scales with population growth • Released from permafrost • Released from hydrate deposits • Emissions now rising again due to global wetlands returning from prolonged drought
Solubility of CO2 is decreasing; Ocean sink now less than before
Really, Three Choices • BAU because we can’t learn or don’t know how to do anything differently react to disasters as they come • A1T: Alternative energy technology and fuels will come in time • B1: We do what Cronon suggests understand that wilderness is everywhere and behave accordingly
Carbon Trading • Emission space is fixed bid or contract on emissions • Effective trading requires many sources of generation • What process determines size of emission space? • What is the penalty for exceeding your emissions cap?
Carbon Market • In principle is very large, but how oversees it, accounts for it, verifies it? Note that the CDM is supposed to encourage China to switch from Coal to Natural Gas to lower its share of the carbon market. This is not happening to date
Carbon, Capture and Storage • Without a real market, what’s the incentive for CCS? • CCS technologies are not mature and need to be tested. • Porosity of sequestration needs to be tested: only sure reserve is deep ocean • CCS the most politically sensible pathway to stablization
Stabilization and Wedges • 1 Wedge = 1 Gigaton of Carbon per year • This is a global effort • Again, real carbon market could help provide various incentives • And remember, global carbon emissions are now increasing annually
Gaining a Wedge • Increase fuel economy for 2 billion cars from 30 to 60 mpg • or, decrease annual miles for 2 billion 30 mpg cars from 10,000 to 5000 • Efficient buildings: cut carbon emissions in buildings by 25% • Increase coal fired electricity efficiency from 40% to 60% using advanced high temperature materials
IPCC Scenarios • Once again, three real choices • Remain Market Driven • Hope that technological leaps occur • Adopt the kind of global morality/consciousness that is needed to reduce personal consumption. • Electricity use scale as (pop. Growth)3.5 • Increasing global inequity should no longer be tolerated. Aren’t all men created equal? • Your generation is inheriting the legacy of greed
Resource Depletion • Global resource use took a sudden uptick starting around 2000 • The world is currently in the most unsustainable epoch in history !
And we Policy Wank our way along • "The United States is committed to reducing the greenhouse gas intensity of the American economy by 18 percent over the 10-year period from 2002 to 2012. “ Whoops
What to Do? • Subversive videos on You Tube don’t hurt • Drive less; Period. Period. Period. • Act according to Cronon’s imperative: Wilderness is Everywhere • Properly factor in avoidance costs in economic modeling of climate change
20 Million College Students • Have inherited this world
