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Session 1. Assessing Vulnerability of Resources to Rapid Climate Change

Session 1. Assessing Vulnerability of Resources to Rapid Climate Change Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments for Parks – John Gross Comparison of Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Methods for Species - Nancy Green

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Session 1. Assessing Vulnerability of Resources to Rapid Climate Change

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  1. Session 1. Assessing Vulnerability of Resources to Rapid Climate Change • Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments for Parks – John Gross • Comparison of Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Methods for Species - Nancy Green • Vulnerability of Coastal Parks to Sea Level Change, Lake Level Change, and Storms - Rebecca Beavers • A Rapid Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability for Biodiversity Conservation and Management in New Mexico - Carolyn Enquist • Vulnerability Assessment of Habitats and Landscapes - Patrick Comer Session 106: Wednesday 10-12, Evergreen Room, 4th floor Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments for Park Natural and Cultural Resources. Affinity session organized by John Gross & Jay Flaming

  2. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments for Parks John Gross NPS I&M Program Ft Collins, Colorado George Wright Society March 2011

  3. (IPCC 2007)

  4. How will we respond to climate change? • Mitigation • Focus on cause: reduce drivers of climate change, principally greenhouse gases. • Adaptation • Focus on preparing for and coping with impacts.

  5. Adaptation Framework From Glick et al. 2011. Scanning the Conservation Horizon.

  6. Vulnerability Assessments Climate Change Vulnerability is the likelihood that climate induced variation will have an adverse impact on a given system. System = species, habitat, ecosystem, structure, or other value. Glick, Stein, and Edelson 2011

  7. Climate change vulnerability assessments identify • What things are most likely to be affected by projected climate variations. • Inform decisions on management and research priorities. • Why they are vulnerable to climate change • What actions might be taken? • VAs inform • Planning • Efficient allocation of resources • Education and interpretation

  8. Vulnerability assessments are not an endpoint – they are an important step to adaptation. • Road map … • General framework for VAs • Elements common to VAs • Types of VA • Relevant activities Photo by Craig Allen

  9. What is Vulnerability? Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity (IPCC 2007). Hazard risk vs NR vulnerability: Romieu et al. 2010. Sustainability Science 5: 159-170.

  10. Components of Vulnerability Assessments Exposure Sensitivity Potential Impact Adaptive Capacity Vulnerability

  11. Exposure The nature and degree to which a system is exposed to significant climate variations (IPCC 2001). • Mobility, habitat use, life history • Interactions with other stressors • Assessing Exposure – focus on extrinsic factors • Climate – temp & precip • Drought & hydrology • pH, salinity, storms Climate & response models used extensively to estimate exposure

  12. Sensitivity Degree to which something is or is likely to be affected by or responsive to climate changes. • Physiology, behavior, habitat specificity • Affected by other stressors • Assessing Sensitivity – focus on intrinsic factors • Phenology and environmental cues • Interactions and community structure • Temperature-sensitive species or ecosystem processes

  13. Adaptive capacity refers to the ability of a system to accommodate or cope with climate change impacts with minimal disruption. • Ability to move • Adapt evolutionary • Modify behavior • Assessing adaptive capacity – can be intrinsic or extrinsic • Behavioral or phenotypic plasticity • Genetic diversity • Ecosystem processes • Redundancy Photo: Chrístoslílu

  14. Vulnerability = Exposure + Sensitivity– Adaptive Capacity Exposure Sensitivity Potential Impact Adaptive Capacity Vulnerability

  15. Designing a vulnerability assessments • Identify needs and decision process • Determine objectives and scope • Conservation targets and spatial scope • Species, ecosystems, processes • Available data and expertise • Required level of confidence • Cost and time Most parks will likely need and use multiple assessments.

  16. Qualitative Quantitative • Expert opinion • Use conceptual models • Can use general climate scenarios • Faster and less inexpensive • Tightly or loosely structured • Categorical results • Computer-based models • Specific climate projections • Tend to be data and resource intensive • Spatially explicit • May include problematic assumptions

  17. Qualitative Vulnerability Assessments • TNC spreadsheet (Young and collaborators) • State of Mass. (Galbraith) (Young et al. 2011)

  18. Quantitative Assessments • Climate space modeling: • Pika, wolverine • Plants and vegetation • Land facets, ecoregions • Dynamic response models • Forests, marshes, ecosystems • Sea level rise, hydrology, fire Scanning the Conservation Horizon • Integrated assessment – PNW • Dynamic downscale climate • Species attribute database • Dynamic vegetation models • Population models

  19. NPS Vulnerability Assessments Projects Selection of new NPS Projects • Coastal • Acadia - salt marshes and sea level rise • Vulnerability to sea level rise - tidal reaches of Potomac & Anacostia Rivers • Species of concern • Pikas in Peril: multi-regional vulnerability assessment • Climate refugia and connectivity for desert bighorn sheep • Effects of climate change on the Karner blue butterfly • Shenandoah salamanders – effects of climate change • Beach mouse and sea level rise • Species and habitats in Congaree • Badlands site assessment

  20. Vulnerability Assessment Activities • US FWS site and species based assessments • BLM - eco-regional assessment factor • NOAA coastal assessment program • USFS regional assessments • SE Pilot project (USGS with many collaborators) • USGS has many projects • NGOs – many ahead of Gov’t agencies

  21. For More Information: Scanning the Conservation Horizon • VA Training • Pilot – May • Course – August 2011 • GWS Sessions: • VA Affinity - #106 – Wed 10-12 • Adaptation #14 – here! www.nwf.org/vulnerabilityguide Email John_Gross@nps.gov for hard copy

  22. Badlands Vulnerability Assessment • Badlands CC VA • Working with park staff, Northern Great Plains Network, WASO. Barry Drazkowski, St Mary’s University is PI. • South unit of park on reservation (significant ethnographic issues) • Natural and cultural resources • Melanie Wood is lead on cultural resources • Commitment to document process and use as prototype

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