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Starting Points (fall 2010)

Climate Change, Sea Ice, and Tourism Exploratory Research A. Lovecraft, A. Mahoney, H. Eicken , S. Colt steve.colt@uaa.alaska.edu EPSCoR all-hands meeting, May 25, 2011, Fairbanks. Starting Points (fall 2010). Arctic sea ice system is changing rapidly: overall retreat unpredictable

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Starting Points (fall 2010)

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  1. Climate Change, Sea Ice, and Tourism Exploratory ResearchA. Lovecraft, A. Mahoney, H. Eicken, S. Coltsteve.colt@uaa.alaska.eduEPSCoR all-hands meeting, May 25, 2011, Fairbanks

  2. Starting Points (fall 2010) • Arctic sea ice system is changing rapidly: • overall retreat • unpredictable • Overarching research question: How can Arctic communities best plan for increased tourism as coastal sea ice diminishes? • How can pan-Arctic social and sea ice trends and knowledge be “downscaled” to regional and community scales?

  3. Diminishing sea ice: a “wicked problem”?* • Persistent directional change of exogenous parameters • temperature, ice extent, ice volatility, length of “summer season” • Local effects driven by national/international policies • GHG mitigation (or lack) • Rush for resources • Conflicting goals *Chapin et al. 2008

  4. Tourism: one important component of changing social-ecological system • Much tourism is ice-dependent • Ice and ice-related species may be the draw (demand side) • Access may depend on navigable water (supply side) • Tourism is one activity (among several) expected to increase • Tourism offers both opportunities and challenges • Potential local livelihoods • Economic and fiscal benefits

  5. Opportunities and challenges within tourism • ? Tradeoff between volume and “quality” • ? Tradeoff between local ownership and proven global business capabilities and deep pockets • ? Tradeoff between local tourism jobs with lower wages and leaving to find high-wage jobs in global cash economy • ? Tradeoff between tourism volume and subsistence • Who owns the brand? • eg for authentic cultural tourism

  6. Primarily attracted by Ice-dependent tourism in the Arctic • wildlife • landscape Can be either http://www.vantagetravel.com http://www.tundratoursinc.com • ship-based • land-based sea ice in navigable concentrations sea ice and open water accessible from shore Requires:

  7. Ship-based sea ice tourism • Sea ice must be be present to see ice-dependent species • e.g. polar bear, walrus • Too much sea ice will prevent safe access to Arctic waters • Cruise success dependent on prevailing ice conditions Min/max August sea ice concentration for period 2000-2010 Minimum Maximum Data from nsidc.org

  8. Land-based sea ice tourism • Landfast sea ice provides habitat for many species • Accessible/viewable from beach • Narrow landfast ice provides • Closer proximity to offshore leads • More dynamic / aesthetic ice conditions

  9. Landfast ice* and open water** data Monthly mean lead positions Monthly mean landfast ice extent Barrow & Kaktovik • Narrow landfast ice • Open water nearby *Mahoney et al. 2007, J. Geophys. Res. **Eicken et al., 2006, MMS Final report

  10. Ice retreating from coasts during tourist season Chance of sea ice within 100km of coast on given day of year • estimates derived from passive microwave data (nsidc.org) • probably over-estimating ice concentration near coast

  11. Our proposed research • Consider important differences in “sensitivity” of communities to changes in sea ice • Sensitivity is “the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate related or other stimuli” (Trainor et al. 2009, 102) • Example: Wales, on the Bering Strait, could become stopping point for northbound cruise ships • Examine: • vulnerability of communities to sea ice loss, • sensitivity to change • potential adaptations to capture economic benefits from tourism

  12. Five questions to organize inquiry • What are sensitivities of communities to sea ice loss? • Which ice-related attributes drive tourism demand? • How will global ice trends shift tourism demand? • Loss of ice in Japan = boon to North Alaska? • Can we predict ice extent and location at local and regional scales useful for tourism planning? • What institutions do/can/should exist to best manage tourism for benefit of Arctic people?

  13. Multiple scales – an important part of the problem and inquiry • Single communities face [mostly] exogenous parameters • Regions – can plan and share risk • State/federal – set policies, make most rules • International – ecosystem scale, international markets and sources of demand for resources

  14. Addressing the multiple scales • Use GIS to compare (overlay) shifting patterns of ice, ecosystem attributes, socioeconomic status and activity • Look for alignments and conflicts • Geography PhD project (!)

  15. Next steps • Expand team • Full proposal development • Submission(s) to NSF

  16. Literature Cited Chapin, F. S., III, S. F. Trainor, O. Huntington, A. L. Lovecraft, E. Zavaleta, D. C. Natcher, A. D. McGuire, J. L. Nelson, L. Ray, M. Calef, N. L. Fresco, H. Huntington, T. S. Rupp, L. DeWilde, and R. L. Naylor. 2008. Increasing wildfire in the boreal forest: Causes, consequences, and pathways to potential solutions of a wicked problem. BioScience, 58 (6), 531-540.

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