From Bali to Copenhagen : Climate Change Challenges

1. From Bali to Copenhagen : Climate Change Challenges Ainun Nishat Ph.D. Country Representative IUCN-Bangladesh Country Office, and Focal Person on Climate Change, IUCN-Asia Regional Directorate

2. Is Climate Change real …..? • Climate change has risen to the top of international policy agenda. • IPCC TAR 2001: The Earth’s Climate system has demonstrably changed on both global and regional scales since the pre-industrial era. The IPCC-FAR(2007), concludes that global warming is unequivocally the result of human activities. Scientific consensus is clear; now we need to urgently focus on what to do about it. • CO2 emission has increased from 280 ppm before industrial revolution to about 380 ppm. May reach 800+ ppm by end of this century. Global average temperature is already up by 0.8C. • Stern Review ( 2007) : ‘poorest countries and people will suffer earliest and most’. • Climate change and climate variability are now real and a stable situation is not likely to be achieved soon.

3. Some Definitions…… • Climate Change: any change in climate over time. • Climate variability: variations in the mean state and other statistics (such as occurrence of extremes, etc.) of the climate on all temporal and spatial scales. • Adaptation is adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. • Mitigation is interventions to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases.

4. Introduction • UNFCCC was signed in 1992; Kyoto protocol focuses on Mitigation and will come to end in 2012. • IPCC-IV Report puts urgency in combined global efforts in addressing various aspects of global warming. • Intense negotiations will be held from now, up to December 2009, developing countries must participate in the process effectively • This presentation has five sections • Major Climate Change concerns • Progress up to Bali • Outcome of Bali COP ( COP13/MOP3) • Bali Action Plan and Road to Copenhagen • Concluding Remarks

5. I. Major Climate Change concerns

7. Global WarmingSea Level RiseSnow CoverSPM (IPCC, 2007)

8. Comparison of Yearly Mean Temperature Global Northern Hemisphere Bangladesh Dhaka

9. Projected impacts of climate change Global temperature change (relative to pre-industrial) 0°C 1°C 2°C 3°C 4°C 5°C Food Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly developing regions Fallingyields in many developed regions Possible risingyields in some high latitude regions Water Significant fall in water availability e.g. Mediterranean and Southern Africa Small mountain glaciers disappear – melt-water supplies threatened in several areas Sea level rise threatens major cities Ecosystems Extensive Damage to Coral Reefs Rising number of species face extinction Extreme Weather Events Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding,heat waves Risk of Abrupt and Major Irreversible Changes Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system Source: stern review

10. Vulnerabilities

11. Trade Food security Nutrition Regional distribution of Vulnerabilities: Livelihood global output Agriculture Trend and sudden shocks Poor and non poor Health Livelihood impact through Adjustment mechanism Infrastructure Employment, income, consumption Climate change such as migration changes impact Industry Regional dimensions coastal and inland Gender differentiated Disasters impacts

12. Vulnerabilities

13. North: Compromise with life style Snow melting and dry ski-slopes Floods Impact on ecosystem Hurricanes and typhoons Sea level rise Health issues Malaria Heat waves Capacity to cope with disasters Reduction of green house gas emission level South: Food and livelihood security Urban drainage problems Floods and cyclone : forecasting and warning dissemination Improvements in IWRM including resolution of trans-boundary waters. Salinity increase & sea level rise River and coastal erosion Disaster management Understanding impact on ecosystem Question of future survival Where are our concerns

14. II. Progress up to Bali

15. Global Responses • The international political response to climate change began with adoption of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) in 1992. • Calls for all signatories including developing countries: • to develop their inventories of GHG emission; • formulate and implement national and regional programs related to mitigation and adaptation; • Promote and cooperate in development, application, diffusion, including transfer of technologies aimed at GHG emission reduction; • Promote sinks of Green House Gases; • Cooperate in adaptation to impacts of climate change; • Promote and cooperate in increasing the scientific understanding and in education training and awareness raising. • These initiatives should be reflected in National Communications. Annex-1 countries have prepared 4th Communication, developing countries have submitted 1st Communication and preparing 2nd Communication.

16. Goals set out in 1992 through UNFCCC • Stabilization of the GHG concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climatic system. • Such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient: • To allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change. • To ensure that food production is not threatened, and • To enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.

17. Global Response(cont...) • Parties to the UNFCCC adopted the Kyoto Protocol (KP) with the unprecedented, legally enforced ambition of limiting and reducing the greenhouse gas emissions. • Annex-I countries have a target to bring down the GHG emission, individually or jointly, by at least by 5%below 1990 levels in the first commitment period of 2008 to 2012. • Countries are to make demonstrable progress in achieving their commitments by 2005. Is it happening? --- No. • Negotiation for post 2012 period has been initiated through Bali Action Plan. • Heads of Govt. met in New York on 24th September 2007; Ministers and senior officials met on 11-12th February 2008.

18. III. Outcome of Bali COP ( COP13/MOP3)

19. Bali action Plan • 13th COP held in Bali launched a comprehensive process to enable the full, effective and sustained implementation of the UNFCCC through long-term action, now, up to and beyond 2012, in order to reach an agreed outcome and adopt a decision at COP-15. • The process will produce: • A shared vision for long-term cooperative action, • Set long term global goal for emission reductions, • To achieve ultimate objective of the UNFCCC, and • Uphold the principles of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, and • Take into account social and economic conditions and other relevant factors. • The process will address: • Enhanced national/international action on Mitigation • Enhanced action on Adaptation, • Enhanced action on Technology development and transfer to support action on Mitigation and Adaptation, • Enhanced action on provision of Financial Resources and investment to support action on Mitigation and adaptation and technology cooperation.

20. Enhanced action on Mitigation • By all developed countries • Quantified emission limitation and reduction objectives • Nationally appropriate mitigation commitments or actions: Measurable, Reportable, and Verifiable. • By all developing countries • Nationally appropriate mitigation actions, • Supported and enabled by technology, finance and capacity-building, in the context of sustainable development : Measurable, Reportable, and Verifiable. • Positive incentives on REDD

21. Enhanced action on Adaptation • International cooperation to support urgent implementation of Adaptation actions through: • Assessment of Vulnerability • Prioritization of actions • Financial needs assessment • Development of risk reduction and disaster management strategies • Integration of climate considerations into sectoral and national planning • Support programme for capacity building in formulating programmes and projects to address the adaptation needs. • Financial mechanism to support the implementation of activities. • Development of new and innovative support mechanisms such as insurance etc.

22. Enhanced action on Technology transfer • Technology development and transfer to support action on Mitigation and Adaptation by: • Scaling up of the development and transfer of technology to developing countries through effective mechanisms and enhanced means for removal of obstacles to, and provision of financial and other incentives. • Accelerated deployment, diffusion and transfer of affordable environmentally sound technologies, • Cooperation in research and development of current, new and innovative technology.

23. Enhanced action on Finance • Positive incentives for emission reduction activities of developing country’s. • Financing for implementation of adaptation actions. • Mobilization of public- and Private-sector funding and investment, including facilitation of carbon-friendly investment choices • Improved access to adequate, predictable and sustainable financial resources including concessional funding.

24. IV. Bali Action Plan and Road to Copenhagen

25. Bali Action Plan and Road to Copenhagen • Road Map for post-2012 international response to Climate Change has been agreed upon • Mitigation is no longer a task for only Annex-1 or developed countries. • Developing as well as LDCs are also obligated to push for GHG reduction. China, India, Indonesia etc. are also major polluters. • Ad Hoc Working Group (AWG) on long term Cooperative Action has been set up. AWG wil complete its work in 2009 and present their outcome in COP 15 in Copenhagen. • First session of the AWG will be held no later than April 2008. There will be 4 sessions in 2008. ( March/April, June, September, and December). • Parties are to submit their views by 22nd February 2008 on the Bali Work Programme.

26. Concluding remarks

27. Some negotiation issues at global level • A strong compliance regime is required. Efforts should be made to ensure that global mean temperature will not increase beyond 2 ºc. • A deep emission cut is needed. IPCC suggested that developed counties need to reduce their emission, below 1990 level, by 25-40% by 2020, for stabilization at 450-550 ppm. • Larger alliance among developing countries on post Kyoto situation. • Additional funds commitment for adaptation needs and it’s disbursement mechanism. • Binding adaptation funds • Technology transfer at an affordable price

28. Where to work • Mainstreaming of climate change concerns into country’s programs/projectsbe done urgently. • Synergy between Adaptation and Mitigation be considered • Coastal afforestation and Wetland afforestation • Selection of species for enhanced sequestration • Monitoring of impacts of Climate change • Climate change and impact on ecosystem • Indicator species • Movement of habitat • Climate change and health issues • Sea level rise • Impact of weather on crop yield • Compilation of traditional knowledge and folk wisdom on disaster risk reduction

29. Where to work • Reducing greenhouse gas Emission from Deforestation and ecosystem Degradation (REDD). • Climate change and gender issues • Capacity development in • science, impacts and adaptation assessment • prediction of climate risks • Preparation and implementation of CDM projects. • Agriculture sector to raise adaptive capacity, • international negotiation & climate diplomacy • Implications of Bio-fuel / Bio Diesel be evaluated. • GO/NGO collaboration on collaborative research & community based adaptation activities. • Establishment of Climate change Network to coordinate national level activities and join global networks

30. Thank You