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FY06 GIMPAP Annual Review

FY06 GIMPAP Annual Review. TAC Mark DeMaria, Don Gray co-chairs Jeff Key, NESDIS/ASPB Dave Benner, NESDIS/OSDPD Jim Gurka, NESDIS/OSD Kevin Schrab, NWS Tony Mostek, NWS Jim Purdom, CIRA. GIMPAP and GOES PSDI. ~1995 to 2001 Single GIMPAP program $3 million per year

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FY06 GIMPAP Annual Review

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  1. FY06 GIMPAP Annual Review • TAC • Mark DeMaria, Don Gray co-chairs • Jeff Key, NESDIS/ASPB • Dave Benner, NESDIS/OSDPD • Jim Gurka, NESDIS/OSD • Kevin Schrab, NWS • Tony Mostek, NWS • Jim Purdom, CIRA

  2. GIMPAP and GOES PSDI • ~1995 to 2001 • Single GIMPAP program $3 million per year • Paul Menzel chaired the TAC • 2002-present • Funds split • GIMPAP (2/5) and GOES-PSDI (3/5) • M. DeMaria, Don Gray co-chair the TAC • GIMPAP supports applied research to develop new products for • PSDI, JSCDA, Joint Hurricane Testbed, Direct transfer to obs, training programs, outreach • Somewhat analogous to GOES-R3 and AWG

  3. FY06 GIMPAP Annual Review Agenda Friday, August 11, 2006 Room 707 NOAA Science Center 0830-0845 Introduction and Overview DeMaria/Gray FY06 Funded Projects 0845-0900 Air Quality Kondragunta 0900-0915 Aviation Weather Pryor 0915-0930 Global automated mapping Romanov Of snow and ice 0930-0945 Precipitation Applications Kuligowski 0945-1000 Ocean Studies Maturi 1000-1015 AOML Report Dunion 1015-1030 MDL Report Daniels 1030-1045 Break 1045-1100 NSSL Report Rabin 1100-1115 GRD Report Birkenheuer 1115-1135 CIRA Report DeMaria (for VonderHaar) 1135-1155 CIMSS Report Ackerman/Li FY07 Potential New Start Projects 1200-1210 GOES Cal/Val Changyong Cao 1210-1230 Break 1230-1400 TAC Meeting (TAC members only)

  4. RAMMT/CIRA FY06 CIRA/RAMMB Activities and Participation in GIMPAP PI: Dr. Thomas VonderHaar, CIRA/CSU NOAA/NESDIS/RAMMB Participants: Mark DeMaria Debra Molenar John Weaver* Don Hillger Ray Zehr Dan Lindsey CIRA/CSU Participants: Research Scientists Research Associates Students John Knaff Hiro Gosden Kate Maclay (MS) Bernadette Connell Dave Watson Daniel Coleman (BS) Jack Dostalek Cindy Combs Rachel Danner (HS) Louis Grasso Kathy Fryer Kashia Jekel (HS) Kevin Micke *Retired

  5. 2. Main Project Goals • Tropical Cyclone Research • Emphasis on genesis and intensity analysis and change • GOES data in operational analysis/forecast algorithms • Severe Weather/Mesoscale Research • Mesoscale convective system analysis • Cloud top structure analysis and severe weather • Other GOES product development • Fire/smoke/ash detection • Applications of new GOES-12 sensors • Cloud climatologies • Training • International Virtual Laboratory • Contributions to VISIT/SHyMet training

  6. 3. TAC Guidance for FY06 1. Continue tropical cyclone and severe weather application development 2. Coordinate with CIMSS and AOML on tropical cyclone work 3. Coordinate with ASPB and CIMSS on now-casting applications 4. Support VISIT, SHyMet and International Virtual lab when possible 5. Emphasize WFO applications of cloud climatology studies 6. Lead GOES-N Science test if launch occurs during FY06

  7. 4. Major Accomplishments • NHC SHIPS intensity model being improved with GOES input • GOES annular hurricane index being added to NHC operations • IR GOES database development continues with CIMSS • Continued interaction with AOML/HRD on rapid intensity change • New study on tropical cyclone size changes • TC formation product successfully transitioned to NESDIS operations • Experimental real-time mesoscale convective system forecast tool • Algorithm for “effective radius” developed for cloud top severe weather forecast tool • New collaborations with Eureka, CA NWS Office on GOES cloud climatologies • Preliminary work for GOES-N Cal/Val and science test • Expanded participation in International satellite weather briefings • Planning for International “High Profile Training Event” Oct 2006 • 1 new GOES-related VISIT training modules • 4 new modules for SHyMet training course

  8. 5. Operational Transitions • GOES PSDI Projects • TC formation product successfully transitioned to OSDPD/IPB • New TC formation product under development for West Pacific • Possible “new start” for Mesoscale Convective System index product • Joint Hurricane Testbed Projects • GOES radial profiles being used in operational SHIPS and RII models • GOES-based annular hurricane index to be transitioned to NHC • Contributions to new VISIT training sessions • GOES 3.9 µm Channel • Contributions to SHyMet training • Tropical cyclone analysis and forecasting • GOES imaging and sounding coverage • Cyclogenesis analysis with satellite data • Introduction with satellite-based severe weather analysis • GOES-12 principal component volcanic ash product routinely used by SAB • AWIPS/WES being set up at CIRA to improve interaction • Experimental products on RAMSDIS On-Line

  9. 6. Mesoscale Convective System Index • Predicts likelihood of MCS organization • Uses GOES Sounder Lifted Index as one of its inputs • In this example, MCS in central Kansas likely to persist as it moves into Oklahoma • Blue line is location of -52 ˚C contour from IR satellite

  10. 7. Cloud Top Effective Radius Product • Uses 3.9 and 10.7 channels along with model-computed lookup tables to estimate cloud-top ice crystal size • Recent research shows correlation between small ice and updraft strength • In this example, storms over Texas/Oklahoma have smaller crystals than those further north • Work continues to better quantify the relationship with severe weather

  11. 8. New VISIT Training • “The GOES 3.9 µm Channel” • Basic session explaining the science behind 3.9 channel, and showing a number of applications • In this example, 3.9 – 10.7 difference product highlights dense fog in California • There’ve been requests for training on fog detection and snow/fog differentiation, so this comprehensive session covers both

  12. 9. Tropical Cyclone Structure Change • Storms size highly variable • GOES data being used to identify storm growth • Three mechanisms identified • Eyewall cycles • Interaction with shear • Baroclinic enhancement • New operational forecast product under development Charley Aug 2004 Wilma Oct 2005

  13. 10. Annular Hurricane Index • Highly symmetric storms • Intensity stays high longer than average • Characteristic IR signature • Occur in specific environments • Objective index developed using discriminant analysis and CIRA IR archive • Product being transitioned to NHC operations this month Hurricane Daniel 22 July 2006 East Pacific

  14. 11. International Weather Briefings • Live monthly international weather briefings • RAMDIS On-Line, VISITView server, yahoo messenger for voice • U.S. Participants • CIRA, CIMSS, COMET, NCEP International Desk • Caribbean, Central and South American Participants • Antigua, Argentina, Barbados, Barbuda, Chile, Columbia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Honduras, Jamaica, Peru, Trinidad, and Venezuela http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/vview/vmrmtcrso.html

  15. 12a. RAMM Branch Travel Sponsored by GIMPAP 2006

  16. 12b. GIMPAP-Related Publications Refereed Journal Articles • Bikos, D.E., J.F. Weaver, and J. Braun, 2006:  The Role of GOES Satellite Imagery in Tracking Low-Level Moisture. Wea. Forecasting, 21, 232-241. • DeMaria, M., M. Mainelli, L.K. Shay, J.A. Knaff , J. Kaplan, 2005:  Further Improvement to the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS).  Wea. and Forecasting, 20:4, 531–543. • Ferraro, R.R., Pellegrino, M.Turk, Chen, Qui, R.J., R.J. Kuligowski, S.J. Kusselson, Irving, S.Q. Kidder, J.A. Knaff, 2005:  The Tropical Rainfall Potential (TRaP) Technique. Part 2: Validation.  Wea. and Forecasting,20:4, 465-475. • Hillger, D., S.Q. Kidder, 2005:  A simple GOES skin temperature product. National Weather Digest,29:4, (December), 25-31. • Kidder, S.Q., S.J. Kusselson, J.A. Knaff, R.R. Ferraro, R.J. Kuligowski, M. Turk, 2005:  The Tropical Rainfall Potential (TRaP) Technique. Part 1: Description and Examples.  Wea. and Forecasting, 20:4, 456-464. Conference Attendance • AMS 14th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography – 6 • AMS 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology - 4 • AMS Symposium on the Challenges of Severe Convective Storms - 1

  17. 12c. GIMPAP-Related Presentations • D. Lindsey, January, 2006: 3.9 µm reflectivity work described in the Monthly Weather Review. StAR Seminar, Washington, DC. • M. DeMaria, October 16, 2005: Satellite wind algorithms developed by RAMMB. GOES-R Algorithm Working Group Meeting, VA. • M. DeMaria, October, 2005: Theory of equatorial waves. AT601 class (Atmospheric Dynamics) in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO. • D. Lindsey, August, 2005: Using satellite imagery to improve forecasts and nowcasts. 34th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology, Washington, DC. • D. Hillger, July, 2005: An overview/summary of CIRA calibration/validation activities. CoRP Second Annual Science Symposium on Satellite Calibration and Validation, Madison, WI.

  18. 13. CIRA Plans for FY07 • Tropical cyclone genesis/intensity studies • Continued improvements in genesis/intensity forecasts • Improved rapid intensity index product with HRD • Real time tests of multi-platform TC wind analyses with CIMSS • Develop tropical cyclone size analysis and forecast algorithm • Severe weather/mesoscale studies • Prototype severe weather now-cast product based on GOES effective radius • Continue real-time tests of mesoscale convective system index • Gain support from NCEP/SPC for operational transition • GOES Product Development • GOES cloud climatology study with Eureka WFO • Improved applications of GOES-12 for ash/fog/smoke detection • Lead GOES-N Science Test • Training • Continue interaction with VISIT/SHyMet • Continue International Virtual Laboratory support and HPTE • Continue International virtual satellite briefings • RAMSDIS On-Line

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