Regional Methodology Workshop Birchwood Hotel 21 June, 2012 Pretoria

1. Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) Monitoring and Evaluation Framework and links to the Survey Questionnaire Regional Methodology Workshop Birchwood Hotel 21 June, 2012 Pretoria

2. Goal and targets of CAADP • Goal of CAADP • Help African countries reach and maintain a higher path of economic growth through agriculturally-led development that reduces mass poverty, food insecurity and hunger. • Targets of CAADP • 6% average annual growth in the agriculture • MDG 1 - reduce poverty and hunger by half by 2015, • Allocating 10% of national budgets to agriculture

3. Four Pillars of CAADP CAADP is a strategic framework to guide investments across four specific pillars, as well as investments in strengthening institutional capacity across the pillars: Extending area under sustainable land management and reliable water control systems Improving rural infrastructure and trade-related capacity for market access Increasing food supplies and reducing hunger Agricultural research and technology dissemination and adoption

4. CAADP Implementation • The CAADP country roundtable process is the main process to monitor and evaluate at the country level. • inclusive participation of stakeholders to ensure that credible and relevant evidence is used in the design of a CAADP investment program that is aligned with the CAADP principles and targets across the four CAADP pillars • Significant stages in the process lead up to signing of a country CAADP compact and then design, technical review, implementation and monitoring and evaluation of the investment program.

5. Purpose of CAAD M&E Framework • The M&E framework was developed by ReSAKSS , endorsed in 2009 and validated 2010 • To monitor progress towards the successful implementation of CAADP • Supports mutual, peer and progress reviews at the continental, regional and national levels respectively. • Provides a basis for impact assessment of CAADP. • To do this it has identified a set of indicators, data required, laid out a data collection, and analysis plan

6. What to monitor? • What to monitor is based on the underlying logic of CAADP to show how the investments (Inputs) and outputs associated with any one pillar of CAADP interact with the other pillars through complementarity or substitutability of investments to affect achievement of the overall CAADP goals and objectives. • Also the framework shows how the investment decisions and realization of the various outputs and outcomes are influenced by the conditioning factors e.g. governance and trade and macroeconomic policies.

7. What to monitor (2) Generally agreed that the indicators must be SMART Specific, Measurable, Achievable, RealisticandTimely Thus the best indicators are those that best reflect the range of inputs (processes, policies and investments), outputs and outcomes associated with the activities being implemented across the different pillars of CAADP.

8. Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Realistic and Timely (SMART) Indicators • SMART indicators must be the ones that best reflect the range of: • 1. Inputs, • 2. Outputs • 3. Outcomes • associated with the activities being implemented across the different pillars/subsectors of the agriculture sector

9. Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Realistic and Timely (SMART) Indicators • SMART indicators must also capture critical landmarks along the pathway (s) of impact e.g. • Investments made and how these affect agricultural productivity growth, poverty and hunger • Investments made in capacity strengthening and how these contribute to achieving the goals and objectives of the sector • Investments made and associated outputs in each individual pillar and how these are affected by investments and outputs associated with other pillars • Conditioning factors/exogenous factors – and how these are likely to influence realization of the goals and objectives of the sector

10. Input Level Conditioning/Exogenous Factors Political economy Governance Institutions Total Government Revenue Private Sector Investments FDI/OD Rural Land Agricultural Infrastructure Food Security Management & Research and Trade Related and Safety Nets Water Control Technology Market Access Systems Development Institutional Capacity Strengthening Inputs Investments in the 4 CAADP Pillars and Capacity Strengthening Public Investments

11. Outputs

12. Outcomes

14. Source: Benin.S., Johnson M. et al, 2008 • Goal level • Household Assets and • Endowments, Natural disasters • Conflict Goals Intermediate Goals • Intermediate Goal level • Non-agricultural production • Employment, Rural wages, • Inflation • Outcome level • Resources, Rainfall, Natural • Disasters, Trade policies, • Exchange Rates, Prices Outcomes Outputs (Capital) • Output level • Initial conditions of capital • Social services (Educ, Health. SS) • Input level • Political economy, • Governance • Institutions • Total Government Revenue • Private Sector Investments • FDI/ODA Inputs (Investments) Overall Performance Indicator Framework Conditioning factors

15. Figure 1 and Figure 2 • The two figures: • Help identify a critical set of indicators that in addition to being consistent with the impact pathways, possess sufficient information to address the fundamental question of whether the programme is on track to achieving the desired goal of agricultural growth rate and poverty, hunger reduction targets.

16. CAADP and SADC RISDP Indicators • Achieving a GDP growth of at least 7% a year. • MDG1 by 2015 . • Doubling cropland under irrigation from 3.5% to 7% • Increasing fertilizer use to 65 kg/ha of arable land by 2015. • Increasing cereal yield to 2,000 kg/ha by 2015. • Doubling the adoption rate of proven technologies such as improved seed varieties, and management of water and land by 2015. • Increasing livestock production by at least 4% annually

17. Questionnaire overview • The survey is divided into six broad sections: • CAADP implementation process • Expenditure and investment indicators • Output indicators (Agricultural technology, diffusion, and human capital indicators) • Agricultural sector performance indicators (Agricultural production and trade indicators) • Macro- and socio-economic indicators (Welfare indicators) • Agricultural development strategies, policies and/or plans

18. CAADP implementation process The purpose of this indicator is to provide an overview of the progress, if any, the country has made in adapting and implementing the CAADP framework

19. B: Expenditure and investment indicators The purpose of this indicator is to collect information on government revenues, budget allocation and expenditures. This information will specifically be used to monitor the country’s progress towards the 2003 Maputo Declaration target of allocating at least 10% of total government budgetary resources to agriculture.

20. C: Output indicators (Agricultural technology, diffusion, and human capital indicators) This indicator covers information on the rate of modern input use which specifically includes adoption of improved technologies, sustainable land management practices and stock as well as quality (in terms of qualifications) of agricultural human capital.

21. D: Agricultural sector performance indicators (Agricultural production and trade indicators) • The purpose of this indicator is to monitor agricultural output and production performance in the country. • This information will be used to assess whether and how the country is progressing towards achieving its agricultural growth and performance targets.

22. E: Macro- and socio-economic indicators (Welfare indicators) • To assess the extent to which the country is progressing towards achieving the MDGs, specifically MDG1 (on halving poverty and hunger by 2015) and MDG6 (particularly as it relates to combating HIV/AIDS).

23. F: Agricultural development strategies, policies and/or plans The purpose of these indicators is to collect information that will be used to review the country’s most recent agricultural development strategies, policies and/or plans (e.g. National Development Plans, Poverty Reduction Strategies (PRSs), Agriculture and/or Food Security Strategies, etc

24. Potential Indicators for CAADP M&E • The indicators are grouped into seven intervention areas • (1) enabling environment; • (2) implementation process • (3) commitments and investments; • (4) agricultural growth performance; • (5) agricultural trade performance; • (6) poverty, hunger, and food and nutrition security; and • (7) investment-growth poverty linkages.

25. Key indicators on enabling environment • Governance and economic management • % of population satisfied with political governance by: (i) gender; (ii) rural/urban; (iii) age group; (iv) sector • Macroeconomic management: (i) deficit to GDP; (ii),revenue to GDP; (iii) inflation rate; (iv) debt to GDP • Private sector development • Proportion of population with access to financial services for agricultural and rural development • Proportion of commercial loans for agricultural and rural development (and as % of Agricultural GDP • §Donor harmonization • Share of ODA for total budget support

26. 2. Key indicators on implementation process • Development of investment program • Number of countries at major stages of the roundtable process (see Figure 2) • Composition of stakeholders involved at each major stage of the process • Resources and mechanisms for implementation of investment program • Whether resources have been committed by governments, private sector and development partners • Whether mechanisms are in place for implementation and M&E

27. 3. Key indicators on commitments and investments • Total ODA commitments as % of Agricultural GDP (AgGDP • Total ODA for agricultural R&D and value chains • Government spending on the agricultural sector as: • (i) % agricultural budget; • (ii) % of total expenditures; and • (iii) % of AgGDP • Share of government agricultural expenditures by: • Function (research, extension, irrigation, etc) • Sub-sector (crops, livestock, forestry, fisheries) • Total private sector investments in the agricultural sector % of AgGDP

28. 4. Key indicators on provision, coverage and utilization of services • Percent of agricultural land area under irrigation • Percent of population within 15 minutes, 30 minutes or more than 30 minutes of infrastructure or service • % of agricultural production that is lost post-harvest • %Technology adoption • %agricultural land area under improved technologies (crops and forestry) • %of total livestock units of improved breeds • % of fish farming under sustainable management • Institutional capacity - Level of training (PhD, MS, BS, Dip Number of professionals per 1000 persons by: Gender

29. 5. Key indicators on agricultural trade performance • Value and volume of agricultural exports and imports • as % of AgGDP (and contribution by different sub-sectors and major commodities) • Food trade balance • Share of intra-regional trade • Share of value-added content of trade • Domestic and export-import parity prices by major commodities • Demand outlook and long-term price projections for major commodities

30. 6. Key indicators on poverty, hunger and food and nutrition security • Poverty incidence ratio • Poverty gap ratio • Share of poorest quintile in national income • Proportion of the population below minimum dietary energy consumption • Prevalence of underweight children under five years of age • Global Hunger Index • Share of food expenditure

31. 7. Key indicators on linkages between interventions and CAADP goals • Percentage change in poverty rate per unit change in AgGDP growth rate • Value of AgGDP per unit cost of intervention • Number of people lifted out of poverty or hunger per unit cost of intervention

32. Thank You