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ASCENT AFTER DECLINE Regrowing Global Economies After the Great Recession

ASCENT AFTER DECLINE Regrowing Global Economies After the Great Recession. Otaviano Canuto Vice President and Head of Network Poverty Reduction and Economic Management (PREM) The World Bank. T he XIII HSE International Academic Conference on Economic and Social Development

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ASCENT AFTER DECLINE Regrowing Global Economies After the Great Recession

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  1. ASCENT AFTER DECLINERegrowing Global Economies After the Great Recession Otaviano Canuto Vice President and Head of Network Poverty Reduction and Economic Management (PREM) The World Bank The XIII HSE International Academic Conference on Economic and Social Development Higher School of Economics, Moscow, April 3-5, 2012

  2. Available for download at: http://www.worldbank.org/ascent-after-decline

  3. The great recession of 2007-09 has left permanent scars and the global recovery has lost steam (Eurozone’s debt crisis, damaged households balance sheets, depressed consumption and unemployment in the US). • Growth in several major developing countries like Brazil, China and India is significantly slower than earlier in the recovery (tightening monetary policy and low-growth path in advanced economies). • What can we do about it? What kind of policies can put the world economy back on track?  Why this book and why now?

  4. Government’s role remains paramount as “investor” in the knowledge economy, and as a “guarantor” of the social contract. • Policies must be coordinated on a multilateral basis as single-country interventions are insufficient (reducing China-U.S. imbalances, promoting domestic growth-led strategy, shifting industrial policy, reactivating job creation). • Growth in emerging and developing economies has exhibited strong resilience. But for its full potential, advanced economies must also find how to ascend after declining.  Three take-away messages

  5. The Challenges of Growth Ch. 1 - by OtavianoCanuto, Danny M. Leipziger, and Brian Pinto

  6. Are many: financial markets uncertainty, sovereign indebtedness, solvency concerns (Euro area periphery), maturing bank debt, households and bank exposure to real estate stagnation, damaged balance sheets in advanced economies.And in the medium-term: Rising debt levels; Reduced trade prospects; Global imbalances. Obstacles to Global Recovery

  7. Internal rebalancing: fiscal consolidation vs. private demand • External rebalancing: reduce CA deficits (US) and CA surplus (China, emerging Asia) But limited room for fiscal and monetary policy maneuvering (QE2). Interaction between fiscal consolidation, growth and debt dynamics. Likely impact on emerging economies? Rebalancing Global Demand

  8. Can domestic resource mobilization offset capital shortage and volatility? • Are returns from export-oriented, outward-looking strategies declining? • Can China relinquish its dominance of low end manufactures? • Will importers push back trade openness, at the expense of developing countries? The Changing Landscape for Growth

  9. Scarcer risk capital, more self-financing for development • ICT and technological innovation as new opportunities? • Emerging markets and China: global growth drivers? • More-rapid convergence in the interest of both new and old economic powers? One goal: avoid suboptimal trajectory, below potential output, political economy strains, and disorderly convergence. Forging the Link between Medium- and Long-Term Growth

  10. Insulate growth from the pernicious effects of slowly declining current account imbalances, combined with capital flows searching for yield: • Financial regulation—regulatory reform, particularly cross-boundary coordination. • Central bank policy—consider imbalances and asset prices in formulating monetary policy and minimizing threats to growth. • Fiscal policy—tighten fiscal policy proactively. • Cross-border coordination—countries must coordinate actions, and countries with large deficits urged to consolidate. • International financial architecture—access to emergency financing through pooled reserve arrangements, bilateral lines, or from a special facility at the IMF. Policy Responses (1/7)Rebalancing Global Growth Ch. 2 - by Menzie Chinn, Barry Eichengreen, and Hiro Ito

  11. Figure 2.1 Current Account Balances, 1996-2016

  12. Figure 2.2 U.S. Saving, Investment, and Current Account, 1968-2011

  13. Figure 2.3 Current Account Balance as a Percentage of Euro Area GDP, 1995-2010

  14. How to adjust fiscal policy while maximizing the positive benefits for growth? High public indebtedness in advanced economies -> merely stabilizing it may have highly negative consequences for potential growth; lowering it to “safe” thresholds, would take a Herculean effort. To reduce public debt in advanced and emerging economies to 60 percent and 40 percent of GDP, respectively, by 2030: cyclically adjusted primary fiscal surpluses should increase by 8.25 percentage points of GDP for advanced economies and by 3 percentage points for emerging economies during 2011–20, and kept at this level until 2030. Will an adjustment of this magnitude have adverse consequences for growth because of the aggregate demand effects? Policy Responses (2/7)Fiscal Policy and Growth Ch. 3 - by Carlo Cottarelli and Michael Keen

  15. Figure 3.3 Predicted Old-Age Dependency Ratio, 2009-50

  16. Figure 3.4 Projected Pension Spending with and without Reforms, 2010-30

  17. Figure 3.5 General Government Debt in Emerging Economies, 1998-2007

  18. Figure 3.6 General Government Balances and Debt in Advanced vs. Emerging Economies, 2007-2015

  19. Figure 3.7 General Government Net Debt Projections for Advanced Economies, Projected to 2030

  20. Figure 3.8 Precrisis and Postcrisis Output in Advanced Economies, Projected to 2014

  21. Figure 3.9 Actual and Debt-Stabilizing General Government Primary Balances, by Debt Ratio, 2010

  22. Infrastructure as a quick fix during the global crisis? Public infrastructure projects seen as silver bullet to create jobs and keep up demand. Accounted for 20–30% of fiscal stimulus package in G20 countries. But infrastructure (which accounts for 12–18% of GDP) warrants as much scrutiny as the financial sector. Policy makers need pay more attention to the rents extracted by construction firms, bankers, and operators. Regulation must restore balance among key stakeholders (operators, users, and taxpayers). Policy Responses (3/7)Infrastructure Policy for Shared Growth Post-2008 Ch. 4 - by Antonio Estache

  23. Figure 4.1 PPI Commitments to Infrastructure Projects in Developing Countries, by Implementation Status, 1990-2009

  24. Not so much how large, but how smart should government be? Knowledge investment is fundamental for the State: • Increased education funding—particularly in research. • Worker retraining—subsidies likely needed to retrain workers as part of a liberalization of trade or entry strategy. • R&D spending—critical to firms’ long-run growth, and could be useful for macroeconomic stabilization. • Climate-related innovation—carbon pricing to discourage dirty technology, combined with subsidies to simultaneously encourage clean innovation. • Industrial policy—target subsidies to several firms in a given sector, spurring innovation as firms compete against each other, leading to higher productivity and stimulating new product creation. Policy Responses (4/7)Rethinking Growth and the State Ch. 5 - by Philippe Aghion and Julia Cagé

  25. Figure 5.1 Relation between University Output and Autonomy in Selected European Countries

  26. Figure 5.2 Relation between Changes in Inherited Trust and Per Capita Income, 1935-2000

  27. Figure 5.3 Relation between Distrust and Extent of Entry Regulation

  28. Figure 5.6 Relation between Taxation and Growth in High-Corruption OECD Countries

  29. Figure 5.7 Relation between Taxation and Growth in Low-Corruption OECD Countries

  30. Save first financial institutions or jobs? Despite vast sums spent to bail out and shore up the financial sector, unemployment remains high. Yet, financial institutions have systemic significance, State cannot easily decide which sectors to pick for saving jobs, and firms might build up leverage in anticipation of being helped (moral hazard). Going forward, a strong focus needed on job-creating competition policies and easing barriers to entry because the lion’s share of net job creation is in start-up firms. Policy Responses (5/7)Financial Shocks and the Labor Market Ch. 6 - by Tito Boeri and Pietro Garibaldi

  31. Figure 6.1 U.S. and Euro Area Unemployment Rates, 2000-10

  32. Figure 6.2 Stock Market Capitalization and Unemployment, Euro Area and U.S., 2000-10

  33. Figure 6.3 Unemployment-to-Output Response in G-7 Countries

  34. Can IT boost growth prospects? Positive impact on total factor productivity growth as a result of innovation. Economic welfare and growth influenced by terms of trade, economies of scale, and variety. Secular fall in quality-adjusted prices of IT products (potential decline in the terms of trade) would favor consumers and importers. Economies of scale combined with the ability to import inputs could benefit exporting countries. Incentive for businesses to do existing things better is where the real IT benefits lie. A good strategy for a developing country might be to join a global supply chain and eventually create better conditions for using IT at home, which is where the growth potential of IT lies. Policy Responses (6/7)Information Technology, Globalization, and Growth Ch. 7 - by Catherine L. Mann

  35. Figure 7.1 Transformative Technology and Social Surplus

  36. Figure 7.2 Growth and International IT Trade: The Hypotheses

  37. Figure 7.3 Growth and International IT Trade: The Calculations

  38. Figure 7.4 Social Surplus and IT Trade in Selected Economies, 2000-07

  39. Figure 7.5 Variety vs. Concentration in Product Trade, Selected Countriesaverage of 1999 and 2006 Herfindahl indexes

  40. Radical change undergoing: open innovation process, global innovation chains, and facilitating role of new technology platforms such as the Internet. A new growth strategy should seek: • Increase in human capital operating through technology, which has a bigger impact on GDP than deregulation. • Harmonization has a bigger impact on services than deregulation, while technology benefits more from deregulation. • Technology accumulation, the ultimate growth driver, which is strongly supported by human capital accumulation. Delay in implementing policy change will be costly for productivity and growth. Policy Responses (7/7)Innovation-Driven Growth Ch. 8 - by Paolo Guerrieri and Pier Carlo Padoan

  41. Figure 8.1 Real Income Sources in Europe and Japan Compared with the U.S., 2007

  42. Figure 8.2 Effects of Deregulation and Harmonization

  43. Figure 8.3 Effect of a 5 Percent Increase in Human Capital

  44. Figure 8.4 Comparative Effects of Policy Scenarios on Output

  45. To continue with issues related to the global economic crisis and growth:http://blogs.worldbank.org/growth/blogs/otaviano-canutoThanks! Otaviano Canuto Vice President and Head of Network Poverty Reduction and Economic Management (PREM) The World Bank The XIII HSE International Academic Conference on Economic and Social Development Higher School of Economics, Moscow, April 3-5, 2012

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