1 / 49

Historical climate and future scenarios

Historical climate and future scenarios. Canadian Columbia River Forum 27 October 2008. Trevor Murdock Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) University of Victoria. Outline. Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium Variability and historical trends Future projections.

hogan
Télécharger la présentation

Historical climate and future scenarios

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Historical climate and future scenarios Canadian Columbia River Forum 27 October 2008 Trevor Murdock Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) University of Victoria

  2. Outline • Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium • Variability and historical trends • Future projections

  3. Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium www.PacificClimate.org • Launched 2005 • Focus on regional climate impacts • Application of research to management, planning, and decision-making • Partner with research labs, impacts researchers and regional stakeholders

  4. PCIC Resources • BC Ministry of Environment • PICS Endowment www.pics.uvic.ca • BC Hydro • BC Ministry of Forests and Range • Communities and others – small projects • 10 15 full time staff + post-docs

  5. Climate Overview Project www.PacificClimate.org/publications Support from BC Hydro & BC MOE

  6. Outline • Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium • Variability and historical trends • Future projections

  7. Trend • Decadal • Annual Annual and decadal variability superimposed on climate trends

  8. El Nino – less precipitation La Nina – more precipitation

  9. El Nino – warmer La Nina – cooler

  10. Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) superimposed on ENSO

  11. Cranbrook historical trends: warmer, wetter, more rain, less snow, earlier streamflow, lower peak flow

  12. Cranbrook warming faster than nearby stations (1913-2002)

  13. 50-yr Temperature Trends

  14. 30-yr Temperature Trends

  15. Precipitation (1913-2002)

  16. Outline • Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium • Variability and historical trends • Future projections

  17. Projections of future climate change • Global Climate Models – range of uncertainty • Regional Climate Models – inter-regional differences from larger scale changes • Empirical Downscaling – high resolution elevation correction on temperature

  18. Amount of climate change depends on greenhouse gas emissions IPCC AR4 Figure SPM.5

  19. BC projected to warm considerably compared to historical variability • BC Temperature Anomalies from (1961-1990) • 15 GCMs • solid A2 • dash B1

  20. 2050s range = uncertainty 2080s more emissions  warmer BC 2050s (2041-2070) annual temperature anomalies (°C) from (1961-1990) model baseline. Range from all available AR4 scenarios. Temperature (°C) and Precipitation (% of 1961-1990 model baseline) uncertainty estimates from GCMs and emissions scenarios

  21. Projected warming depends on GCM and emissions scenario Columbia Basin winter and summer from GCMs (boxes) + RCM (red)

  22. RCM adds regional detail unavailable from its driving GCM CGCM3 A2 run 4 CRCM 4.1.1 run acs & act forced by CGCM3 A2 run 4

  23. Winter temperature increase larger in northern portion of Basin CRCM 4.1.1 run acs& act forced by CGCM3 A2 run 4

  24. 0-Degree C isotherm almost gone by 2050s (CGCM3 A2 run4)

  25. Increased Growing Degree Days (CGCM3 A2 run4)

  26. Increased suitability for Douglas Fir, decreased suitability for Spruce (average of 5 projections) Summary of results:

  27. Less summer rainfall projected in eastern portion of the Basin CRCM 4.1.1 run acs& act forced by CGCM3 A2 run 4

  28. Precipitation: likely winter increase,summer decrease Columbia Basin winter and summer from GCMs (boxes) + RCM (red)

  29. Summary • Climate variability • Year-to-year variability superimposed on long term • effects of El Nino/La Nina large in Columbia Basin • Historical trends • vary spatially, seasonally, and by length of record • winter minimum temperatures particularly milder • ∆ T and P components of hydrologic cycle – snowpack, glaciers, streamflow & lake ice • Projections (2050s) •  T (1.6°C to 2.3°C) •  winter P (+1% to +13%) •  summer P (-10% to -4%) • GDD, tree species suitability  implications for H20 mgmt

  30. Forest Science Program Project Forest Investment Account - Forest Science Program Richard Hebda, Royal BC Museum Dave Spittlehouse, BC Ministry of Forests Steve Taylor , Pacific Forestry Centre Vince Nealis , Pacific Forestry Centre Rene Alfaro, Pacific Forestry Centre Tongli Wang, University of British Columbia Kees van Kooten , University of Victoria Andreas Hamman, University of Alberta PCIC Research Associates Kirstin Campbell, Alvaro Montenegro, Alan Mehlenbacher, Clint Abbott, Kyle Ford, Hamish Aubrey PCIC Staff Dilumie Abeysirigunawardena, Katrina Bennett, Dave Bronaugh, Aquila Flower, Dave Rodenhuis, and Arelia Werner AcknowledgementsFinancial support, collaboration, review Trends for Biodiversity Matt Austin, BC Ministry of Environment Jenny Fraser, BC Ministry of Environment Richard Hebda, Royal BC Museum Bob Peart, Biodiversity BC Nancy Turner, University of Victoria Climate Overview Doug Smith, BC Hydro Ben Kangasniemi, BC Ministry of Environment Dave Spittlehouse, BC Ministry of Forests Dan Moore, University of British Columbia Stewart Cohen, UBC and Environment Canada Dan Smith, University of Victoria Elaine Barrow, Consultant Sarah Boon, University of Lethbridge Allan Chapman, River Forecast Centre Xuebin Zhang, Environment Canada Doug McCollor, BC Hydro Phil Mote, University of Washington Paul Whitfield, Environment Canada Robin Pike, FORREX(now Ministry of Forests)

  31. Thank youFor more informationwww.PacificClimate.orgTrevor Murdock250.472.4681tmurdock@uvic.ca

  32. PCIC Partners

  33. Recent CO2 change comparable to difference between ice age and now Ice Core TemperatureandCO2levels past 20,000 yrs

  34. Columbia Basin to warm considerably compared to historical variability • BC Temperature Anomalies from (1961-1990) • 15 GCMs • solid A2 • dash B1

  35. RCM shows regional differences in projected relative precipitation change CGCM3 A2 run 4 CRCM 4.1.1 run acs & act forced by CGCM3 A2 run 4

  36. Complementary mitigation and adaptation (not trade-offs) Source Jennifer Penney Clean Air Partnership

  37. From Impacts to Adaptation http://adaptation.rncan.gc.ca/assess/2007/index_e.php

  38. From impacts to adaptation • The following hydrology-related changes may be expected in British Columbia: • Increased atmospheric evaporative demand • Altered vegetation composition affecting evaporation and interception • Increased stream and lake temperatures • Increased frequency and magnitude of storm events and disturbances • Accelerated melting of permafrost, lake ice, and river ice • Decreased snow accumulation and accelerated snowmelt • Glacier mass balance adjustments • Altered timing and magnitude of streamflow

  39. From impacts to adaptation

  40. Municipalities can adapt to climate change by mainstreaming climate considerations • T & P changes  impacts on drought, landslide, storms, water supply, power generation,infrastructure, health etc. • Integrate adaptation into individual official community plans, departmental & agency plans & programs • Online “planners interface” to climate change information in development. Contact jhill@cityspaces.ca

  41. PCIC online interface was developed for impacts researchers

  42. Assessment of vulnerabilities, risks, impacts, opportunities • Comprehensive assessments involved: • Analysis of current conditions & stressors • Review of historical climate trends • Regional climate change projections • Case studies of recent extreme weather events • Analysis of likely impacts by sector • Some used formal risk assessment to prioritize risks Source Jennifer Penney Clean Air Partnership

  43. Potential for spruce bark beetle outbreaks in colder areas of range

  44. Future Streamflow

  45. Comparison of Historical Variability and Projected Change Trevor Murdock Source: PacificClimate.org

  46. Projecting streamflow using diagnostic hydrological model (VIC) • Columbia Basin UW/DOE • BC Environment RFC Mountain Pine Beetle Study • BCH Peace River Basin Climate Change Study VIC Driving Data, Time Series Average 1961 – 1990 Climatology, Precipitation (mm) 3 2 1

  47. summer cooling  winter heating • Winter heating • baseline • high change scenario • Summer cooling • baseline • high change scenario • heating & cooling energy cost scenarios for 2080 (Royal BC Museum 2005)

  48. Adaptation & Green Buildings Greener Buildings • Green Buildings rarely consider local climate, and do not consider future climate • “increasing the attic space insulation from RSI 7.7 to RSI 9.0 in colder areas of the province (4500 and greater degree days)” • Highest energy efficiency over lifespan of buildings can only be achieved by considering reduced winter heating demand, increased summer cooling demand, and changes to precipitation

More Related