1 / 23

Bay Area Suburban Office/R&D Market Overview

Bay Area Suburban Office/R&D Market Overview. C. Michael Kamm, CEO Cassidy Turley | Northern California. Bay Area Market. Recovery vs. Stagnation ? Where Are We?. Recovery? Yes…for some a boom… Stagnation? Yes…for some…but probably not for long…

hollis
Télécharger la présentation

Bay Area Suburban Office/R&D Market Overview

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Bay Area Suburban Office/R&D Market Overview C. Michael Kamm, CEOCassidy Turley | Northern California

  2. Bay Area Market Recovery vs. Stagnation? Where Are We? • Recovery? Yes…for some a boom… • Stagnation? Yes…for some…but probably not for long… • Commercial real estate demand stillcomes down to job growth

  3. Change in employment From 2010 to 2011 (Thousands) Source; BLS Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  4. Market Momentum in 2012 Job Growth, 3 month moving average, % change 1.0% Denver Oakland Houston Dallas Phoenix San Jose Columbus NY City Baltimore Strong Momentum Indianapolis Raleigh Boston Atlanta Northern NJ 0.5% Central NJ San Francisco DC Metro San Diego Cincinnati Moderate Chicago Sacramento Nashville Minneapolis Kansas City 0.0% St. Louis, Charlotte, Milwaukee Tampa Dayton Weak/Declining -1.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  5. Marin East Bay North I-680 San Francisco Tri-Valley San Mateo Silicon Valley

  6. Bay Area Office/R&D Vacancy Rate Trend Source: Cassidy Turley Research

  7. Bay Area Office/R&D Net Absorption Trend Combined (MM Sq. Ft.) +34.0MM -59.6MM +33.9MM -16.1MM +15.6MM Source: Cassidy Turley Research

  8. Bay Area Office/R&D Annual Change in Avg. Asking Rate OFFC: -71%R&D: -119% OFFC: +41%R&D: +51% OFFC: +80%R&D: +244% OFFC: -18%R&D: -23% OFFC: +8%R&D: +10% Source: Cassidy Turley Research

  9. Office Rent Snapshot Q1 2012 vs. Q1 2011, Y/Y % Change San Francisco Phoenix Sacramento San Mateo New York Northern NJ San Jose San Diego Cincinnati Nashville Strong Growth Greater than 4% Large DeclinesWorse than -2% Houston St. Louis Suburban VA Baltimore Chicago Kansas City Moderate1 to 4% Denver Small declines0.5% to -2% Louisville Tampa Oakland-East Bay Dallas Flat Suburban MD Columbus Charlotte Atlanta Long Island Raleigh Boston Dayton Indianapolis Milwaukee Central NJ Minneapolis DC Source: Cassidy Turley Research Source: Cassidy Turley Research

  10. Novato18.4% | $2.18 San Rafael12.8% | $2.44 Green./Larkspur7.3% | $3.79 Corte Madera9.9% | $3.00 Mill Valley22.5% | $3.60 Saus./Tiburon10.9% | $2.76 Source: Cassidy Turley Research

  11. Daly City19.3% | $2.22 Brisbane38.5% | $2.88 S. San Francisco30.6% | $3.53 San Bruno/ Millbrae4.7% | $2.23 Burlingame12.6% | $2.15 Foster City9.3% | $3.07 San Mateo14.2% | $2.65 Redwood Shores7.4% | $3.25 Belmont/San Carlos26.4% | $2.56 Redwood City10.7% | $3.32 Menlo Park10.3% | $7.24 Source: Cassidy Turley Research

  12. San Mateo County Office Historical & Forecast Vacancy & Rents (Class A) F O R E C A S TAnnual Growth Net 640K Rent 10% Net 850K Rent 20% Net 700K Rent 10% Source: Cassidy Turley Research

  13. Fremont13.3% | $2.02 Palo Alto4.5% | $5.50 Milpitas13.7% | $1.69 Mt. View5.7% | $3.71 SJ-Airport22.6% | $2.21 N. San Jose18.8% | $2.31 Sunnyvale13.8% | $3.32 Civic Center11.1% | $1.62 Santa Clara19.9% | $2.04 San Jose-DT23.0% | $2.31 Cupertino3.3% | $3.05 W. San Jose9.2% | $1.94 S. San Jose13.9% | $1.71 Campbell 13.1% | $2.48 Los Gatos-Saratoga10.9% | $2.95 Source: Cassidy Turley Research

  14. Silicon Valley Office/R&D Historical & Forecast Vacancy & Rents F O R E C A S TAnnual Growth Net 6.0M Rent 10% Net 7.5M Rent 20% Net 6.0M Rent 15% Source: Cassidy Turley Research

  15. Silicon Valley Office/R&D Silicon Valley Requirements – Historical Volume Tracking Requirements Volume SF Square Feet (Millions) Requirements • Demand near a 10-year high • Average size of requirements has grown significantly Source: Cassidy Turley Research

  16. Silicon Valley Market Drivers • Apple… • controls close to 7MMSF in Cupertino, over 80% of that market, pushing tenants east • has leased 1.15MSF in Sunnyvale over the last year. • Is negotiating an another ±1M square feet in Sunnyvale. • Sunnyvale’s vacancy is declining fast and rents are rising forcing tenants to move east Source: Cassidy Turley Research Office/R&D Vacancy as of March 16, 2012Average Rates Q4 2010 & 2011

  17. Richmond25.2% | $2.17 West Berkeley 10.5% | $2.37 Berkeley CBD10.5% | $2.42 Emeryville 18.1% | $2.49 City Center13.8% | $2.27 Lake Merritt15.1% | $2.38 Coliseum-Airport28.0% | $1.74 Jack London Sq.12.5% | $1.50 N. Alameda36.3% | $2.10 S. Alameda26.8% | $1.74 Source: Cassidy Turley Research

  18. Pleasant Hill 7.2% | $2.19 Concord15.7% | $1.78 WC-Shadelands23.5% | $1.63 WC-PH BART20.9% | $2.40 WC-BART Area16.5% | $2.54 Lamorinda9.4% | $2.98 WC-Downtown11.5% | $2.36 Source: Cassidy Turley Research

  19. San Ramon14.3%% | $1.80 Dublin15.9% | $1.73 Livermore27.7% | $1.41 Pleasanton19.8% | $1.77 Source: Cassidy Turley Research

  20. Greater East Bay Office Historical & Forecast Vacancy & Rents F O R E C A S TAnnual Growth Net 1.6M Rent 5% Net 300K Rent 10% Net 700K Rent 10% Source: Cassidy Turley Research Includes Alameda & Contra Costa Counties

  21. Bay Area Industrial Market Vacancy Rate Trend Source: Cassidy Turley Research

  22. Bay Area Market Changes Ahead

  23. Bay Area Market Changes Ahead • Recovery? Absolutely… • Tech growth remains aggressive with office and R&D the beneficiariesGeography remains limited to 101 Corridor, but is expanding in South Bay • Stagnation? Yes, for some, but probably not for long… • Both warehouse and manufacturing remain in flat to near-flat growth mode- East Bay industrial still struggling to compete with Stockton price points • Office and R&D product away from tech influence remains mostly flat- Outlying markets generally weakest for job growth and office demand

More Related