EMERGING TRENDS in INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

1. EMERGING TRENDSinINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY By Maj Gen (Dr)R K Bagga AVSM

2. INFORMATION EXPLOSION REMARKS YEAR PERIOD 0AD 1500 1500 250 PRINTING PRESS 1750 150 1900 50 1950 17 COMPUTER 1967 6 1973 3 *128 TIMES AD1 1976 - (THE ELECTRONIC BAZAR by ROBIN BLOOR) . 1991 . INTERNET 2000 . EVERY MONTH ? . 2003 . EVERY MINUTE ? INFORMATION DOUBLING PERIODS(GEORGE ANDRELA, FRANCE 1973)

3. Managing Today’s Enterprise • Global Competition • Operations Geographically Dispersed • Customer Expectations Changing • Mergers, Acquisitions & Dependencies

4. Computer + Communication (Process/Store) (Transfer) IS INFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY

5. Intel Microprocessor Evolution Intel microprocessors have approximately doubled in transistor count every 18 months. At this rate, Intel processors should contain between 50 to 100 million transistors by the turn of the century and execute 2 billion instructions per second.

6. Moore’s Law for Semiconductor Technology 1.00E + 08 • Actual Predicted 1.00E + 07 • • • 1.00E + 06 Number of transistors • • 1.00E + 05 • 1.00E + 04 • • 1.00E + 03 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 Year

7. Moore’s Law for Bandwidth (suggested IEEE Comsoc Oct99) 10,000 • Actual modem speeds “Moore’s Law” prediction 1000 100 • Transmission rate (kb/s) • • • • • 10 • • • • • • 1 • 0.1 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 Year

8. INTERNET EXPLOSION Internet host computers grew from 300,000 in 1990 to 2.2 million in 1993 INCREASE 50Million--- 1% Per Day Source: SRI International / Communication

9. INTERNET / INTRANET / ENTRANET INTERNET INTRANET EXTRANET      WEB Information can only be accessed internally Information is primarily for external access but can be used internally External access is limited to main trading partners

10. Global Internet Users 327M 151M 18M 1994 1998 2000 THE SPEED OF CHANGE OF THE INTERNET IS DRIVING INFRASTRUCTURE GROWTH • 12 million e-mail messages in next minute, in addition to 0.5 million voice mail messages • 37 million people will log on to the net todayand choose from 830 million web pages! • In the next 100 days, Internet traffic will double • More than 100 million additional Internet usersand 25 million websites will come on-line in 2000 • More than 25 million new Web sites will come on-line in the next year • E-commerce projected to reach $7 trillion by 2004 • More than 600 million devices connected to cellular networks by 2002

11. METCALF MAGIC LAW “ VALUE OF A NETWORK IS PROPORTIONAL TO SQUARE OF THE NUMBER OF USERS ” TOTAL NETWORK BENEFIT = KU2 K = CONSTANT U = USERS

12. GARTNER GROUP FORECAST  By 2001 140 million Internet users Worldwide  By 2001 Gap between developed and developing countries decrease by 40%  By 2003 Internet adoption Worldwide as function of economic growth  Decreased local Internet access costs in developing countries

13. Contd… GARTNER GROUP FORECAST  By 2003 ISP market will go from explosion to restructuring through consolidation  By 2003 Super Carriers will give multi- national gateways for Worldwide Internet access.  Acceleration for encryption and Worldwide Government restriction on use of Internet.

14. COMPANY % RETURN (MAY 1998 - APR, 1999) HEALTHEON 3339 e-BAY 3269 ABOVENET 1853 AMERI TRADE 1105 MESSAGE MEDIA 886 GO2NET 872 CMG 792 INFO*TRADE 952 BOTTOMLINE TECHNOLOGIES 611 INTERNET BUBBLE - IPO’S(PERKINS - RED HERING)

15. THE INDIANS IN IT HOTMAIL … SABEER BHATIA JUNGLEE … RAKESH MATHUR ET AL SYCAMORE … GURURAJ DESHPANDE TIBCO … VIVEK RANADIVE i2 TECHNOLOGIES… SANJIV SIDHU ART TECH GP … JEET SINGH JUNIPER … PRADEEP SINDHU INFOSPACE … NAVIN JAIN REDBACK … VIVEK RAGHAVAN E-SPEAK … RAJIV GUPTA

16. DOT.COM GRAVE YARD (www.upside.com/graveyard) 4 JULY 2001 NameBornDiedBush Rate (Millions) Bazillon.com 1999 15 Jan 2001 Nil Carclub.com - 1 May, 2001 $45 M Cyber Rebate.com May, 1998 16 May, 2001 Nil Dasti’s*new* Jan, 2000 June, 2001 $100 M Foodline.com Late 1998 2 Jan 2001 - Honebytes.com 1998 1 May 2001 $12 M imotors.com Sept, 1999 25 Apr, 2001 $39 M Kozmo.com 1997 12 Apr 2001 $80 M MarchFirst.com 1999 May, 2001 $20 M Rx.com June, 1989 10 May 2001 $350 M Spacework.com 1993 1 May 2001 $6 M Voter.com Mar, 1999 6 Feb 2001 $2 M

17. ICE Market in INDIA & theWORLD-2000 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 DOW JONE NASDAQ 500 400 300 200 100 0 449 INDIA 2000 BS ICE INDEX 245 148 159 154 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

18. 10 INTERNET PREDICTIONS BY MR MODEM 1. Web shakeout to continue for one more year 2. Web to stabilize in 2 years (by 2003) 3. Info. Availability (anywhere, any time) will not replace Human Decision Process 4. Internet based education programme to increase 5. Private online communication will proliferate 6. Pager, PDA & Cellphone to converge

19. Contd… 10 INTERNET PREDICTIONSBY MR MODEM 7. Immediate access to Info will be norm 8. Internet Telephone will reduce call charges 9. Internet users will be all pervasive 10. E-Commerce – will depend on 3A’s. - Authenticator - Authorization - Assurance ( Internet Guide for Seniors ) - RICHARD SHERMAN

20. De-mystify I T Concept? 1970s 1980s 1990s Y2K Beyond (Y2K) Information Age! • Optimize • JIT, KANBAN, ... • Quality • TQM, ISO, CMM, ... • Strategy • SBP, Benchmarking, ... • Process • BPR, ABC, ABM, ... • Knowledge • KM Mass --------> Lean --------> Flexible -----> Agile --->>> MainFrames PCs Client/Server Wearable Networks

21. LEADERSHIP FOR E-BUSINESS “Five years from now, all companies will be Internet companies, or no companies at all.” -Andy Grove, Chairman of Intel, 1999 Who is going to lead the transformation in your company? How will they transform the company?

22. IT VALUE CREATION IN NEW e-CONOMY INFO FREEDOM & GLOBALISATION MORE EFFICIENT MARKET CUSTOMISATION LOWER TRANSACTION COST NEW ENTRANT TO ESTABLISH MARKET e/m-COMMERCE EXPLOITION OF IT & INTERNET MERGERS & ACQUISITION

24. GANG OF FOUR 1. E-MAIL 2. WEBSITE 3. SEARCH ENGINES 4. MUD (MULTI USER DOMAIN) OR COMMUNITY

25. Framework of Global IT(Govt. Hands Off) • Private Sector to lead via market-driven self regulation • Govt. not to impose New/Unnecessary regulation, bureaucratic procedures, taxes/tariffs • Internet is unique & does not fall under jurisdiction of existing laws & regulations

26. Framework of Global IT(Govt. Hands Off) • Cyber Laws - Consistent/Predictable legal environment for IPR, fraud prevention & privacy - Min involvement of Govt. • Facilitate E-Commerce on Global Basis !

27. EMERGING TRENDS-COMPUTERS  GUI - USER FRIENDLY  STORAGE CAPACITY - INCREASE DRAMATICALLY  DATA WAREHOUSE - TERABYTE INFO  MULTIMEDIA - INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY  INTELLIGENT SYSTEM - INCREASE / IMPORTANCE  OBJECT - ORIENTED TECHNIQUE - WIDE ACCEPTABILITY  COMPUTERS SIZE - INCREASINGLY COMPACT

28. EMERGING TRENDS -NETWORKING • CLIENT - SERVER ARCHITECTURE - PRE-DOMINANT • PORTABLE / MOBILE - INCREASINGLY • HOME COMPUTING - ON DEMAND SERVICES • INTERNET NG - SUPER HIGHWAY • INTRANET - ENTERPRISE KNOWLEDGE REPOSITORY • ELECTRONIC COMMERCE - CHANGE BUSINESS WAYS • INTELLIGENT SEARCH AGENTS - AT YOUR SERVICE COST EFFECTIVE SOLUTION ! EVEN IN INDIAN ENVIRONMENT

29. JDI- DIRECTIVE(Robin Bloor) Make sure every one in the company has a PC, Internet access. Order all executives to surf Web on daily basis (Even CEO) Encourage use of email Insist that Marketing Department monitors the WEB for competition Insist Procurement Department use the WEB to check prices If not on WEB – Do it now or Die

30. Any Questions ?

31. THANKS