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Week 12: Evaluating Emerging Technology Trends. MIS 2101. Emerging Technologies. Science-based innovations that have the potential to create a new industry or transform an existing one. They include Discontinuous innovations Evolutionary technologies
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Emerging Technologies • Science-based innovations that have the potential to create a new industry or transform an existing one. • They include • Discontinuous innovations • Evolutionary technologies Definition and issues extracted from George Day and Paul Schoemaker – Avoiding the Pitfalls of Emerging Technologies, California Management Review, v42-2, Winter 2000)
Emerging Technologies - Examples. .. • Discontinuous Technologies • Micro Robots • Holograms • Evolutionary Technologies • Wireless networking • The Internet • Virtual reality
The need to evaluate emerging technologies, infrastructures, and trends • Defense of business • Significant potential return But --- Opportunities for new entrants may equate to risks for existing companies
Gartner Group’s Hype Cycle for New Technologies (2002) Source – Gartner Group 2002 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle Alexander Linder, Jackie Fenn 23 May 2002
Gartner Group Hype Cycle Acronyms • 4G – 4th Generation • ASP - Application Service Provider • BPM – Business Process Management • p2P – Peer to Peer • RFID – Radio Frequency Identification • SOA – Service Oriented Architecture • WiMax - Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access • XBRL – Extensible Business Reporting Language
Bluetooth – Wifi – WiMax – Cellular Services • Bluetooth -- A low power, low range technology which connects devices. • Wifi – Local high speed wireless technology replaces wired local area networks • WiMax – Point to multi-point wireless networking – A wireless replacement to high speed wired connections to service providers. Can be cellular. • 3G – A cellular capability which can provide medium speed voice and data connections Sources: http://www.wirelessis.com/WirelessIs...WiMAX.pdf http://www.rh.edu/~rhb/cs_seminar_2005/SessionB3/ribeiro.pdf http://www.wimaxforum.org/technology/downloads/WiMAX-The_Business_Case-Rev3.pdf
Bluetooth • Ad-hoc networking. (No hub or switch required.) Automatic configuration. • Can be used to connect cell phones to PDAs, computers to printers, cell phones to headsets, etc.
Wifi • Wired local area network replacement • Optimized for indoor or short range solutions • Uses a wireless switch • Designed for 1- 10 users/ base station • Normally does not have cellular capabilities
WiMax (Worldwide Interoperability of Microwave Access) • Fundamentally the same technology as Wifi but with much larger coverage area • Optimized for outdoor use • Base stations support more users than Wifi (up to 500) • Can be cellular
3G cellular • Outdoor or indoor • High mobility • Slower than Wifi and Wimax
Technologies compared NLOS --- Line of sight not required LOS --- Line of sight requires MBS --- million bits/second * Has cellular capabilities
Bluetooth in East Japan Railway Company Green (First Class) Cars • The attendant uses a PDA-like device when collecting green car tickets. • The device uses Bluetooth to send the passenger’s seat and destination to a receiver in the car. • The car displays a green signal above the seat. • When the train leaves the paid zone, the signal automatically changes to red. • The passenger can also pay by touching their SUICA (Super Urban Intelligent) RFID card to a panel in the car. This also turns the signal to green in the paid zone.
Convergence Telephone Cable TV Telephone Internet Service Television Distribution
Convergence • Video, computing, and telephony • Paper and computer displays • High definition television (HDTV) is really a computer • Computers can receive and process TV Example: Windows XP Media Center edition can operate as a TiVo. TiVo homepage http://www.tivo.com Windows XP Media Center homepage http://www.microsoft.com/windowsxp/mediacenter/
Nanotechnology • A field of science whose goal is to control individual atoms and molecules to create computer chips and other devices that are thousands of times smaller than current technologies permit. • . . . new technologies that juggle individual atoms . . . Source: http://www.webopedia.com/TERM/n/nanotechnology.html
Nanotechnology and Computers • Current computer chips created by lithography. • Result of nanotechnology: Very small devices, much faster computers • Molecules acting as switches • Current status: Storage density 10 times that of current silicon memory chips • Applications also include medical devices. Why is it necessary to reduce the size of computer chips to make them faster? Nanotechnology reference (including a good introduction): http://www.zyvex.com/nano/ Good article on current status: http://www.industryweek.com/CurrentArticles/Asp/articles.asp?ArticleId=1425
Nanotechnology example: Electronic paper • Microscopic display particles imbedded in plastic. • Has the look and feel of paper. • Can be used to create a newspaper which constantly changes based on a feed from your PDA or other device. Source: TOMORROW'S PAPER-THIN SCREEN GEMS, By: Kharif, Olga, Business Week Online, 6/20/2002
The world’s smallest abacus Formed by carbon molecules comprised of 60 atoms each. Find out how it was built at: http://www.chem.ucla.edu/dept/Faculty/gimzewski/id4.htm
A molecular gear using similar technology Source: NASA Nanotechnology Gallery http://www.ipt.arc.nasa.gov/gallery.html Contributors: Jie Han, Al Globus, Richard Jaffe, and Glenn Deardorff
Appliances: Mobile Computing • Wireless Lans • Cellular services • 2G (second generation) – Digital services – usually limited to 15,000 – 20,000 bps • 3G (third generation) – Digital services – usually limited to 384,000 bps (limited availability resulting from infrastructure costs)
Appliances – Pervasive computing • Devices containing small computers • A car is a terminal • Automobiles that monitor themselves and report conditions to car service facilities • Integrated Global Positioning and computing • Watches, microwaves, phones, refrigerators, stereos
Appliances – Pervasive computing • Current technology can provide significant miniaturization • Match-head sized web server --- a complete Internet Protocol server • Can be used by devices to report on status and for control Source: http://www-ccs.cs.umass.edu/~shri/ipic.html
Platform independent computer programs • Java, C# and other languages • Write-once, run anywhere • A compiled program can be run on any computer with the Runtime Environment • Java: “Java virtual machine” • Microsoft .net C#: “Runtime” • How? A compiled Java program is a series of generic statements • Interpreted line-by-line at runtime on the client
How It Works (Java example)from (http://java.sun.com/nav/whatis/index.html) 1) A compiled Java program is delivered to the client (e.g., over the Internet) 2) The (platform-specific) Java Virtual Machine interprets the statements and sends them to the Operating System 3) The Operating System carries out the statements 4) The computer displays the interactive application
Platform Independence • Same application running on • a Cell Phone • a Windows computer
XML and Web Services • Previously discussed. • No longer an emerging technology, but a significant trend. • A mechanism for integration of old computer applications. • Makes industry “peer to peer” applications possible. • But industry content standards are necessary. • Potential significant impact to intermediaries.
Immersive Virtual Reality Illusion of full immersion in an artificial world. • Head-referenced viewing • Stereoscopic • Full scale presentation • Detection of head, hand (etc) positioning through head gear, gloves, etc. • Interaction with virtual objects Text and images extracted from: http:/www-vrl.umich.edu/intro/index.html (Except where noted)
Virtual Reality DevicesHead Mounted Displays • Two miniature screens and an optical system with head motion tracking • Newest displays use a laser to paint images directly on retinas Source: http:/www-vrl.umich.edu/intro/index.html Source: http:/www.microvision.com
Virtual Reality DevicesCave Automated Virtual Environment • Developed at the University of Illinois at Chicago • Projects stereo images on the walls of a room • Participants wear 3d glasses Source: http://www.vrl.umich.edu/intro/index.html
Shared Virtual Environments • Users in different locations • Meet in the same virtual world and collaborate Source: http://www-vrl.umich.edu/intro/index.html
Immersive Virtual Environments: Virtual conferencing • The most advanced prototypes: • Sense participants facial and hand positions to generate images by analyzing television images. • Adjust perspective as a participants head moves. • Transmit position information and generates an image of the remote participant and “room” in 3D • Incorporate 3D viewing without glasses • Enables multi-point video conferencing Reference: Proceedings of Vision, Video, and Graphics 2003 Conference, The Eurographics Association, June 2003 ISBN3-905673-54-1 Currently experimental. If this is successful, will any existing companies be threatened?
3D and Virtual Reality – additional features • Images constructed from real and computer generated objects in the same view (Augmented reality) • Mouse-less pointing devices
Augmented Reality Demonstration: Chess Source: http://ligwww.epfl.ch/~rtorre/tracking_results.html
Augmented Reality DemonstrationTracking Source: http://ligwww.epfl.ch/~rtorre/tracking_results.html
And . . . Source: http://ligwww.epfl.ch/~rtorre/tracking_results.html
Applications • Medical Visualization • Improved vision for pilots and drivers • Military visualization Others?
And . . . • Speech recognition with text parsing . . . • 90%+ accuracy • may improve remote access • don't expect people to continue to use voice response as it is now • NEC has been testing Speech to Speech translation using Microsoft Pocket PCs. • Combines recognition, text parsing, translation, and speech synthesis. • Prototype units at Narita airport shops and the World Cup --- Summer 2003. • Japanese => English and English => Japanese • Source: http://www.necca.com.au/About/Press_full.asp?CID=1&PID=39
And --- • Commercially available 3d scene capture devices www.3rdtech.com • 3D volumetric displays www.lightspacetech.com • 3d printers www.zcorp.com • Narrowcasting – focused Internet TV http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/05/technology/05joost.html?_r=1&oref=slogin • The WiiMote http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wii
And . . . • Service Integration • Call centers and Internet • Security will change • New methods of authentication including biometrics (e.g. iris scanning instead of subway/train tickets) • Regulatory and privacy issues
And . . . • What is missing from the list? • Can you think of potential applications for the technologies?
The New and Emerging Technologies Assignment • Pick a technology from the list in the assignment • Find and read references on the technology • Prepare a short presentation • Present to the class (10 minutes)
The Presentation • What is the technology and what does it do? • Business drivers – Why would someone use it and for what? • When will it be ready for use? (Key Risks.) • Technologies it may replace. • Companies or industries which use it (if any) and for what? Are they successful? • Is it a threat to an existing company or industry? If so what company or industry? • Your evaluation--- Will it be successful? Why?
Where to find information on technologies • The Internet • Google • http://www.webopedia.com • Gartner Group Research • http://www.temple.edu/gartner • You must be on campus to use Gartner or (off campus) use your Temple Account and the proxy setting on your browser • Select the search option in the lower left of the screen to search for articles on a specific topic
Using the Temple Proxy • Select Tools/Internet Options in your Browser • Click the Connections tab • Click the Lan settings button • Check the “Use a proxy server” box • Enter gate.temple.edu as the address and 8080 as the port. • Click OK • You will be asked for your temple email id and password when you access a restricted web page • When you are through with the proxy, go back to lan settings and uncheck “Use a proxy server”
library.temple.edu Instructions for connecting outside Temple can be found here • From library.temple.edu, select Find Articles • Then select Full-Text Research Databases • Select Academic Search Premier or Business Source Premier
library.temple.edu • Enter a phrase from the title of the article • Select “Full text“ • Enter a date range (optional)
Articles • For example, the search on the last slide was for Project Initiation • Select HTML Full Text or PDF Full Text • PDF Full Text requires an Adobe Acrobat Reader to view the document (available free from www.adobe.com)
Preparing the Presentation • Instructions are in the assignment • You decide on the number of slides • Use PowerPoint • Be sure to fully reference any material you use --- especially quoted material. Be sure you do not plagiarize. • Avoid large scale cutting and pasting from articles