1. Statistics in Ecology Alison Johnston British Trust for Ornithology

4. Spatial population trends Migrant declines Spatial abundance Massimino et al. In prep

5. Common bird Census Breeding Bird Survey

6. Common bird Census Breeding Bird Survey

7. Distance sampling & Detectability Nuthatch Sitta europaea Curlew Numenius arquata

8. ln(μij) ~ sitei + yearj

9. Grey partridge Lapwing Turtle dove Greenfinch Yellowhammer Whitethroat Skylark …

10. Arithmetic mean Geometric mean Species 1: t1 = 0.5 Species 2: t2 = 2.0

11. Grey partridge Lapwing Turtle dove Greenfinch Yellowhammer Whitethroat Skylark Geometric mean …

13. Common bird Census Breeding Bird Survey

14. Modelling bird abundance - GAMs ln(μit) ~ land coveri+ island + smooth (eastingi, northingi) + offset (detectabilityit) 2nd run 1st run - response variable the number detected in a 1km square - smoothed geographical differences in abundance - non-linear changes in land-use and abundance 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

15. GAMs df» 15 df» 8 df» 3

16. ln(μit) ~ land coveri + smooth (eastingi, northingi) + offset (detectabilityit)

21. Massimino et al. In prep

24. Newson et al. 2011. J. ApplEcol Johnston et al. In submission Davey et al. 2012. Glob. Ecol. Biogeog. Pearce-Higgins et al. 2012

25. GAMs – pros and cons Flexibility - non-linear relationships - more biologically realistic models Flexibility - how much? - overfitting - model selection Smooths can account for effect of variables of interest Good for descriptive models Require more care for explanatory models

26. Spatial population trends Migrant declines Spatial abundance Ockendon et al. 2012 Bird Study www.xkcd.com

29. Afro-Palaearctic migrants

30. Many UK population trends of Afro-Palaearctic migrants are declining

31. Breeding habitat Bioclimatic wintering zone Wintering habitat Median arrival date Trend in arrival date Median*trend interaction north arid humid south ● woodland × general △ wetland ○ open

32. POP TREND ~ breeding habitat + wintering habitat + bioclimatic zone + median arrival * trend arrival weight (1/trend.se)

34. POP TREND ~ breeding habitat + wintering habitat + bioclimatic zone + median arrival * trend arrival weight (1/trend.se)

35. What’s wrong with this model?

36. Spatial population trends Migrant declines Spatial abundance Johnston et al. In submission

37. Motivation • Baseline EU target 20% of energy from renewable sources by 2020 • This requires substantial contribution of offshore wind • Internationally important seabirds breeding on UK coast • Seabirds long-lived species with low productivity “For the vast majority of the birds that fly in near shore and offshore areas, very little is known. This lack of data is of particular concern, given the large scale of proposed offshore windfarms, and the probability of cumulative effects” Drewitt & Langston 2006

38. Impact Assessment A description of the aspects of the environment likely to be significantly affected by the proposed project including, in particular, population, fauna, flora, water... “are likely to have a significant effect on the conservation status of European protected species” Habitat change/loss (positive or negative) Changes in prey or predators (positive or negative) Disturbance causing displacement or behavioural change Collision with structures Additional energy cost of avoiding structures

39. Dogger Bank Development Slow survey Detectability 95% ID Visual observations Snapshot count All birds seen 24% ID (13% certain) Digital images “are likely to have a significant effect on the conservation status of European protected species”

40. Black-headed gull Razorbill Large gull (gannet/great black-backed gull/lesser black-backed gull) Large auk (razorbill/guillemot) Kittiwake Small bird (lots) razorbills large auks ~ f(day) + behavior + latitude + longitude Johnston et al. In prep

41. Black-headed gull Black-headed gull Razorbill Razorbill Large gull (gannet/great black-backed gull/lesser black-backed gull) Large gull (gannet/great black-backed gull/lesser black-backed gull) Large auk (razorbill/guillemot) Large auk (razorbill/guillemot) Kittiwake Kittiwake puffin Small bird (lots) Small bird (lots) fulmar Johnston et al. In prep

42. Black-headed gull Black-headed gull Black-headed gull Black-headed gull Razorbill Razorbill Razorbill Razorbill great black-backed gull gannet great black-backed gull lesser black-backed gull guillemot razorbill guillemot guillemot Kittiwake Kittiwake Kittiwake Kittiwake Little auk fulmar puffin kittiwake

43. Impact Assessment A description of the aspects of the environment likely to be significantly affected by the proposed project including, in particular, population, fauna, flora, water... “are likely to have a significant effect on the conservation status of European protected species”

44. Kittiwake kittiwake

45. Kittiwake kittiwake

46. 3

47. 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 3 3 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 2 3 2

48. Abundance modelling abundance ~ sea_surface_temp + depth + distance_coast + distance_colonies + sandeel_boats + season + season interactions + f(day) + correlation(lat, long) + offset(effort)