Building Sustainability and Resilience

1. Building Sustainability and Resilience SymposiumonBuilding Sustainability and Resilience George Mason University 19 May 2014

2. Building Resilience from the Physical Sciences SymposiumonBuilding Sustainability and Resilience George Mason University 19 May 2014

3. Building Resilience from the Physical Sciences • Why is Climate Changing? • Why Does Virginia Need to Build Resilience to Climate Change? • What Can Mason’s Physical Sciences Do to Help?

4. Why Is Climate Changing? • Climate varies on a wide range of time scales due to natural processes including El Niño, natural cycles in ocean circulation and biogeochemical species, Earth orbital variability, and even continental drift • Since the Industrial Revolution, climate has also changed because humans have altered the composition of the atmosphere and the way the land is formed and used • Understanding this phenomenon and projecting the future changes of Earth’s climate has occupied thousands of scientists worldwide for the past 25 years, in an organizational structure called the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

5. Global Temperature is Warming 2°F 2°F IPCC AR5 WG-I, 2013

6. Regional Temperature is Warming IPCC AR5 WG-I, 2013

7. Arctic Sea Ice is Disappearing Sep 1979 Sep 2012 NSIDC

8. Sea Level is Rising 8” 6” 4” 2” 0” IPCC AR5 WG-I, 2013

9. The Oceans are Becoming More Acidic Ocean acidification has the potential to damage up to 50% of species of corals, mollusks and crustaceans over the 21st century 1751 - 1994 8.25  8.10 (7.8 by 2100?) IPCC AR5 WG-I, 2013

10. More Warming in the Future IPCC AR5 WG-I, 2013

11. No Summer Arctic Sea Ice RCP 2.6 RCP 8.5 IPCC AR5 WG-I, 2013

12. Future Sea Level Rise 40” 32” 24” 16” 8” IPCC AR5 WG-I, 2013

13. IPCC Fifth Assessment Report: Working Group I • Headlines from the AR5 WG-I report (9/30/2013): • Warming of the climate system is unequivocal and unprecedented over recent decades to millennia. • Most recent decades are warmest • Ice sheets are diminishing; sea level is rising; oceans are acidifying • Greenhouse gas concentrations are increasing; energy due to GHG is being taken up by Earth • Human influence is clear and future emissions will change climate even more with model-based projections of +1.5C or more above 1900 values, further sea ice and glacier loss, and further sea level rise • Climatic effects of warming will persist for centuries None of these headlines is “news” – mostly refinements of headlines from the 2007 report. These findings don’t necessarily inform what Virginia should do to build resilience.

14. IPCC Fifth Assessment Report: Working Group II • Headlines from WG-II report (3/31/2014): • Observed impactsfrom climate change are widespread and consequential. • Climate change will lead to increased frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme weather. • In many regions, changing precipitation or melting snow and ice are altering hydrological systems. • The health of human populations is sensitive to shifts in weather patterns; especially vulnerable are those who are socially, economically, culturally, politically or institutionally marginalized. • Climate change over the 21st century will reduce renewable surface water and groundwater resources in most dry subtropical regions, intensifying competition for water among sectors. • Plant and animal species are altering their migration and seasonal behavior. • The negative effects on global agriculture will continue to outweigh any positive effects. • Food security and food production are threatened by climate change in the context of rapidly rising crop demand. • Climate change poses human and national security risks from sea level rise, melting ice, water resource challenges, changing fish stocks and agriculture, and societal displacement. • Climate change will have economic impactson health care, insurance, and transportation. • We are already committed to certain impacts from climate change Gwynne Taraska will describe Working Group II’s assessment of worldwide climate change impacts

15. U.S. National Climate Assessmenthttp://ncadac.globalchange.gov/ • Global climate is already changing, and this is apparent across the U.S. The climate change of the past 50 years is due primarily to human activities, predominantly the burning of fossil fuels. Human-induced climate change is projected to continue and accelerate. • Some extreme weather and climate events have increased in recent decades, and many of these increases are related to human activities. • Climate change threatens human health. • Infrastructure across the U.S. is being adversely affected. • Reliability of water supplies is being reduced. • Adverse impacts to crops and livestock over the next 100 years are expected, despite resilience over the next ~25 years. • There are changes in biodiversity and location of species, reducing ecosystems’ resilience. • Life in the oceans is changing as seawater becomes warmer and more acidic. • Planning for adaptation (to address and prepare for impacts) and mitigation (to reduce emissions) is increasing, but progress with implementation is limited. • In the United States, across all regions: • Climate is already changing • Human health is threatened • U.S. infrastructure is being adversely affected • Water supply reliability is being reduced • Crops, livestock will suffer long-term adverse impacts • Ecosystems’ resilience is reduced • Life in the oceans is changing

16. Why Does Virginia Need to Build Resilience to Climate Variability and Change? • Called for in 2008 Governor’s Climate Change Commission report • Virginia energy production (coal, nuclear), generation and consumption are all affected by climate change and climate change policy on both the supply and demand sides • National Climate Assessment highlights several critical concerns for the Southeast US …

17. Why Does Virginia Need to Build Resilience to Climate Variability and Change? Virginia is at risk in several important areas

18. Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise NCA 2014

19. Sea Level Rise – Major Threat to Virginia Sea level rise in Chesapeake is fastest on Earth with potential impacts on the Bay’s: • Ecosystems • Fisheries • Tourism • Property • Shipping • notably the shipyards and Naval base in Norfolk

20. Warming Impact in Virginia Warming temperatures can lead to higher frequency heat waves with associated public health impacts in the urban areas, e.g., Alexandria, Arlington, and Norfolk

21. Potential for Late 21st C AverageJuly Tmax 92-104°F Additional 30-45 days (up to 60 days in Norfolk) NCA 2014

22. Water Resources Will Be Stressed in Virginia Decreased water availability, exacerbated by population growth and land-use change, will continue to increase competition for water and affect the region’s economy and unique ecosystems.

23. Tropical Cyclones and Hurricanes Will Have a Bigger Impact on Virginia Changes in tropical cyclone intensity can produce storms like Hurricane Isabel or Sandy with devastating impacts on the Virginia coast and Chesapeake Bay

24. Strong Tropical Storms Nearing Virginia Tropical cyclones are reaching maximum intensity at higher latitudes, moving ~180 miles closer to Virginia, on average, over the past 30 years. JP Kossinet al. Nature 509, 349-352 (2014)

25. What If Sandy Hit Coastal Virginia? COLA Hi-Res Simulation

26. U.S. Billion Dollar Disasters NCA 2014

27. What Can Mason’s Physical Sciences Do to Help? • EXPERT ADVICE: Provide access to, explanations of and critical commentary on climate variability and change data, reports and other resources • CURRENT CLIMATE INFORMATION: Provide climate information extension and outreach services to the Commonwealth • VIRGINIA CLIMATE PROJECTION: Develop regional climate change assessments and projections focused on Virginia as the intersection of several important regional features including the Chesapeake Bay and its watershed, the Shenandoah, the mid-Atlantic urban zone (National Capital area, Richmond, Norfolk)

28. COLA News We are pleased to announce that the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) has become an integral part of George Mason University. The COLA staff and computing facility are now collocated with the Climate Dynamics (CLIM) faculty and students and department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences on the GMU main campus in Fairfax, Virginia. is now Jim Kinter, Director, COLA Barry Klinger, Graduate Coordinator, AOES J. Shukla, Director, CLIM Paul Schopf, Chair, AOES Research Hall at Mason New Home of COLA and CLIM

29. COLA The Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) conducts research to improve understanding of climate variability, predictability and change.

30. COLA VISION Global society benefits from improved understanding of climate variability and predictability and free and open access to data and research tools MISSION Basic and applied research and educating the next generation to explore, establish and quantify the predictability and prediction of intra-seasonal to decadal variability in a probabilistic framework and in the context of a changing climate

31. GMU Ph.D. Program Climate Dynamics Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences COLA-Affiliated Faculty • N. Burls (Jan 2015); PhD, Cape Town • T. DelSole;PhD, Harvard • P. Dirmeyer; PhD, Univ. of Maryland • B. Huang; PhD,Univ. of Maryland • J. Kinter; PhD, Princeton • B. Klinger; PhD, MIT/WHOI • K. Pegion (Aug 2014); PhD, Mason • E. Schneider; PhD, Harvard • P. Schopf(chair, AOES); PhD, Princeton • J. Shukla (director, CLIM); PhD, BHU; Sc.D., MIT • C. Stan; PhD, Colorado State Univ. • D. Straus; PhD, Cornell

32. COLA Staff • J. Adams; M.S. Univ. of Washington • E. Altshuler; M.S. Univ. of Maryland • M. Buckley; Ph.D. MIT • B. Cash; Ph.D. Penn State • B. Doty; B.A. Northern Illinois Univ. • M. Fennessy, M.S. Albany Univ. • Z. Guo; Ph.D. Ohio State Univ. • V. Krishnamurthy, Ph.D. MIT • J. Manganello; Ph.D. George Mason Univ. • L. Marx; S.M. MIT • D. Paolino; M.S. Univ. of Illinois • T. Wakefield, B.S. Univ. of Maryland • J. Zhu; Ph.D. NUIST (China) • Post-Doctoral Research Associates • R. Bombardi; Ph.D., UC Santa Barbara • S. Halder; Ph.D., Univ. Pune (India) • C.-S. Shin; Ph.D., Florida State Univ. • R. Shukla; Ph.D. Allahabad Univ. (India) • A. Tawfik; Ph.D. Univ. of Michigan • L. Trenary; Ph.D., Univ. of Colorado • L. Xu; Ph.D., George Mason Univ. • X. Zhu; Ph.D., Texas A&M Univ.

33. CLIM 101: Global Warming - Weather, Climate and Society General Education Natural Science undergraduate course that surveys the scientific and societal issues associated with weather and climate variability and change. CLIM 101 enables students to critically examine arguments being discussed by policy makers, corporations, and the public at large. Scientific basics, potential impacts, decision-making under uncertainty, and policy challenges are all discussed. In a course capstone project, students prepare briefings to the Governor of Virginia on the impact of changing climateon various sectors of the Commonwealth’s socio-economic fabric. Instructors: Jim Kinter and JagadishShukla Offered since 2008 65 students enrolled in 2013, 75 students anticipated in 2014

34. What Can Mason’s Physical Sciences Do to Help? • With the move of COLA to the GMU Fairfax campus, GMU now hosts the largest single group of climate dynamics and climate modeling experts in the U.S., including contributors to the IPCC reports • The Mason Climate Dynamics Ph.D. program is unique in its focus on training the next generation of climate modelers and analysts who can improve our understanding of climate variability and our projections of future climate change • COLA scientists are working with others at Mason including the Center for Climate Change Communication, the Institute for Philosophy and Public Policy and the department of Environmental Science and Policy • Mason is partnering with the Center for American Progress on a number of projects on climate adaptation and response

35. What Can Mason’s Physical Sciences Do to Help? • EXPERT ADVICE: Provide access to, explanations of and critical commentary on climate variability and change data, reports and other resources • CURRENT CLIMATE INFORMATION: Provide climate information extension and outreach services to the Commonwealth • VIRGINIA CLIMATE PROJECTION: Develop regional climate change assessments and projections focused on Virginia as the intersection of several important regional features including the Chesapeake Bay and its watershed, the Shenandoah, the mid-Atlantic urban zone (National Capital area, Richmond, Norfolk)

36. Virginia Current Temperature wx.gmu.edu

37. Virginia Weather - Radar wx.gmu.edu

38. Virginia Weather - Fronts wx.gmu.edu

39. What Can Mason’s Physical Sciences Do to Help? • EXPERT ADVICE: Provide access to, explanations of and critical commentary on climate variability and change data, reports and other resources • CURRENT CLIMATE INFORMATION: Provide climate information extension and outreach services to the Commonwealth • VIRGINIA CLIMATE PROJECTION: Develop regional climate change projections and assessments focused on Virginia as the intersection of several important regional features including the Chesapeake Bay and its watershed, the Shenandoah, the mid-Atlantic urban zone (National Capital area, Richmond, Norfolk)

40. Virginia Climate Divisions and Drought Some climatic zones in Virginia are susceptible to prolonged, severe drought. courtesy J. Adams

41. Virginia is Warming VA - WV 62°F historical RCP4.5 60°F 58°F 56°F 54°F courtesy T. DelSole

42. Summary • Virginia, like the U.S. and the world, faces unprecedented challenges as climate changes and its impacts are felt in socio-economic and eco- systems across the Commonwealth • Being prepared for potential threats and becoming resilient to the impacts of climate change requires a good understanding of what is happening, where, when, how much, and why • Mason’s physical sciences groups stand ready to help the Commonwealth adapt to the new normal that is already here and is expected in the future