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Applications and benefits of weather, climate and water information to the power sector

Applications and benefits of weather, climate and water information to the power sector. Laurent Dubus EDF R&D Applied Meteorology & Atmospheric Environment Group. WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION

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Applications and benefits of weather, climate and water information to the power sector

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  1. Applications and benefits of weather, climate and water information to the power sector Laurent Dubus EDF R&D AppliedMeteorology & AtmosphericEnvironment Group WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION “MEETING OF THE WMO FORUM: SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS AND BENEFITS OF WEATHER, CLIMATE AND WATER SERVICES” WMO HEADQUARTERS, GENEVA, SWITZERLAND 8-11 APRIL 2013

  2. Overview Preliminaryremarks on power systems Important meteorologicalparameters and data/forecastsused What about economicevaluation of the benefitsfromweather/water/climate data ? WMO Forum, SEB, 8-11 April 2013

  3. Overview Preliminaryremarks on power systems Important meteorologicalparameters and data/forecastsused What about economicevaluation of the benefitsfromweather/water/climate data ? WMO Forum, SEB, 8-11 April 2013

  4. Power systems are more and more complex EDF power production, 2011 46.6 / 628.2 TWhfromrenewables WMO Forum, SEB, 8-11 April 2013

  5. Growing importance of Renewables (2010: 12%) WMO Forum, SEB, 8-11 April 2013

  6. Power Offer/Demand balance: a complexproblem Production units' program: 58 nuclear reactors 435 hydro power units ~50 thermal (coal, gas, fuel) ~900 Wind farms ~250,000 solar (including households) Problems: Production=Demand at each time step Many constraints Financial optimization of production costs Huge optimization problem: 1 000 000 variables & 10 000 000 constraints for day+2 30 minutes forecasts Highly non convex and non linear, discrete and continuous variables Highly demanding on optimality (1% differenceseveral millions euros/year) and feasibility (all technical constraints must be satisfied) WMO Forum, SEB, 8-11 April 2013 6

  7. Overview Preliminaryremarks on power systems Important meteorologicalparameters and data/forecastsused What about economicevaluation of the benefitsfromweather/water/climate data ? WMO Forum, SEB, 8-11 April 2013

  8. Power demanddepends on temperature Data from RTE & Météo-France • In France, power demand is highly dependent on temperature. • in winter : -1°C dT +2 300 MW of extra production ~ 20 M€ hedging • in summer : +1°C dT +400-500 MW of extra production WMO Forum, SEB, 8-11 April 2013

  9. Increasingrenewableenergy production increases the dependance on weathervariability and climate change Daily variations of french hydro power production capacity in 2003 Hydro Solar (PV) Wind Renewables: highlyfluctuatingresources (especiallywind and solarenergy) WMO Forum, SEB, 8-11 April 2013

  10. State of the art NWP models are used Example: in-house productsbuiltfrom ECMWF & Météo-France VarEPS/monthlyforecasts (temperature) Temperature + Cloud Cover  Demandforecasts  production unitsscheduling  physicalmarginscalculations  hedging for residualfinancialrisk (mandatory) WMO Forum, SEB, 8-11 April 2013

  11. Monthlyforecasts of river dischargeusing ECMWF products + in house post-processingmethods Analog Method Hydrological Model Streamflow Prob fcsts ECMWF Monthly fcst (Z700 & Z1000) Local T2m & Precip over 43 basins • Streamflowclimatology • Hydro Model forced by T2m & Precipclimatology (1969-2008) • Hydro Model forced by Analog T2m & Precip • Observation  New model isnowoperational, an extension to seasonalforecastsisunerconsideration DUBUS, L. In Press. Weather & climate and the power sector: Needs, recent developments and challenges. In: TROCCOLI, A., AUDINET, P.,DUBUS, L. & HAUPT, S. (eds.) Weathermatters for energy. Springer WMO Forum, SEB, 8-11 April 2013

  12. Local forecasts for renewables: a big challenge WMO Forum, SEB, 8-11 April 2013

  13. WMO Forum, SEB, 8-11 April 2013

  14. Many challenges remain • Importance of meteorological data for projectdefinition/dimensionning (V@100m, solar rad) • Moderateforecasterrorscanlead to high production errors • Some important parameters/eventsstill not wellknown/monitored/forecasted: • solar radiation (global/direct/diffuse) • rapid fluctuations (wind/radiation) • snow, icingevents, lowlevelclouds … WMO Forum, SEB, 8-11 April 2013

  15. Overview Preliminaryremarks on power systems Important meteorologicalparameters and data/forecastsused What about economicevaluation of the benefitsfromweather/water/climate data ? WMO Forum, SEB, 8-11 April 2013

  16. Economicevaluation of weather/water/climate info benefits • Few publications on thissubject, most of which come fromresearch institutes, universities, international agencies (NREL, IEA, OECD…) • Not fromenergycompanies, because of the sensitivity of the economic information (competitivemarkets) • Evaluations are country/technologyspecific : • depend on national policies (in particular for renewables: incentives vs. pure marketrules) BAMS, dec. 2005 WMO Forum, SEB, 8-11 April 2013

  17. EDF’sfinancial communication (feb. 2011) WMO Forum, SEB, 8-11 April 2013

  18. Importance of observed data for investments • An accurate estimation of the resourceis essential • Example: for an offshore wind turbine in France, an overestimation of 0.5m/s of the averagewind speed (6.5 m/s instead of 6.0 m/s) canlead to a difference in production cost of 18% (V. Maupu, EDF R&D, personal communication) • Long time series are needed to assess the wind/solarresource for a given site WMO Forum, SEB, 8-11 April 2013

  19. Forecasts for windenergy : the NCAR/XcelEnergyexperience Mahoney, W.P.; Parks, K.; Wiener, G.; Yubao Liu; Myers, W.L.; Juanzhen Sun; Delle Monache, L.; Hopson, T.; Johnson, D.; Haupt, S.E., "A Wind Power Forecasting System to OptimizeGridIntegration," SustainableEnergy, IEEE Transactions on , vol.3, no.4, pp.670,682, Oct. 2012. doi: 10.1109/TSTE.2012.2201758 WMO Forum, SEB, 8-11 April 2013

  20. Forecasts for windenergy : the NCAR/XcelEnergyexperience FromParks et al., 2011 FromMahoney et al., 2012 • Cost analysis before, during and after the deployment of the new system: • Total decrease of 20% in MAPE between 2008 and 2010 • US $6M savingsbetween 2009 and 2010 for wind power forecasts • + US $2M savings due to more efficient commitment and dispatching of fossil fuel ressources WMO Forum, SEB, 8-11 April 2013

  21. Wind energy: the ANEMOS.plus & SafeWindProjects  Includes 38 references about value of windforecasting Because in general TSO provide data publicly, free of charge WMO Forum, SEB, 8-11 April 2013

  22. Results must betakenwith care (manyparameters to takeintoaccount) Increasedpenetration of renewableenergies (wind/solar) can a priori decreaseenergyprices, but have secondaryeffectslikeincrease in maintenance costs for otherenergy sources (nuclear, coal fuel, gas) that are used in less optimal conditions  Resultsshouldbetakenwith care, and global assessments are needed WMO Forum, SEB, 8-11 April 2013

  23. Conclusions (1/2) • In the last 10 years, muchprogresswasachieved in NMHSs and researchcenters (VarEPS & monthlyforecasts @ ECMWF for instance) • Only a few energycompaniesactivelycollaboratewithNMHSs & privateweathercompanies to develop new tailoredproducts (ex.: XcelEnergy & NCAR/NREL, EDF & Météo-France) • DialogbetweenProviders & Usersisessential to translate improvements in science into business improvements •  Communicationtowards & training of end-usersisveryimportant •  Upstream collaboration and partnershipsshouldbeencouraged www.icem2013.org WMO Forum, SEB, 8-11 April 2013

  24. Conclusions (2/2) • Progress are needed in forecastsat all time scales, but also in observations. • Showing an improvementw.r.tcurrentpractiseisoftenenough • An economicevaluation of the benefits of WCW services in the energysectoris : • technicallycomplex • country/technologydependant • generally not publiclyavailablebecause of strategic aspects • However, evenif economicbenefitassessmentisdifficult, the value of WCW services isessential to the power sector WMO Forum, SEB, 8-11 April 2013

  25. Thankyou for your attention WMO Forum, SEB, 8-11 April 2013

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