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Environmental values and valuation over time

Environmental values and valuation over time. Gabriela Scheufele EERH Workshop 20 May 2008. Motivation. 30 year history of non-market valuation: opportunity to analyse environmental values and valuation across time

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Environmental values and valuation over time

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  1. Environmental values and valuation over time Gabriela Scheufele EERH Workshop 20 May 2008

  2. Motivation • 30 year history of non-market valuation: opportunity to analyse environmental values and valuation across time • Number of value estimation studies linking time and value is limited, mostly considering relatively short time periods (e.g., Brouwer 2006; Brouwer and Bateman 2005; Carson et al. 1997; Loomis 1989; McConnell et al. 1998; Reiling et al. 1990; Stevens et al. 1994; Teisl et al. 1995; Whitehead and Aiken 2007; Whitehead and Hoban 1999; Zandersen et al. 2005) • Policy making requires forecast of future preferences and extrapolation of value estimates over extended time periods (‘shelf live’?) • Benefit transfer – transfer across space and time • Changing reference dependency - influence of extreme events & long-term ‘threats’ (‘right’ point in time?)

  3. Research questions • Do value (estimates) change over longer time periods? • What is the direction and extent of possible value (estimate) changes across time? • What are the drivers motivating possible value (estimate) volatility over time?

  4. Drivers of temporal value volatility • Temporal unreliability of value estimates • Impact of methodological evolution (procedural changes) on value estimates across time (e.g., sampling methods, survey design, elicitation format, underlying economic models, econometric analysis & interpretation of results) • Temporal volatility of inherent values due to changes in environmental preferences and constraints (e.g., income; availability of close and cheap substitutes; relative scarcity; socio-demographics such as age, gender, cultural background; quantitative and qualitative characteristics; psychometric factors such as attitude-behaviour relations, decision making types, or unfamiliarity with natural resources)

  5. Case study • Existence value of the Nadgee Nature Reserve • Nadgee Nature Reserve covers an area of 17,116 ha • Only coastal wilderness area in NSW • Pristine character • Existence value of the Nadgee Nature Reserve • Nadgee Nature Reserve covers an area of 17,116 ha • Only coastal wilderness area in NSW • Pristine character • Existence value of the Nadgee Nature Reserve • Nadgee Nature Reserve covers an area of 17,116 ha • Only coastal wilderness area in NSW • Pristine character Source: webpage Department of Environment and Climate Change , New South Wales Government Source: webpage Department of Environment and Climate Change , New South Wales Government Source: webpage Department of Environment and Climate Change , New South Wales Government Source: Department of Environment and Climate Change , New South Wales Government

  6. Methods • Comparison of original CV 1978 with original replication in 2008/2009 • Analysis of the evolution of conservation areas in Australia • Analysis of changes in conservation related policies in Australia • Analysis of other survey data (e.g., world value survey) • Analysis of links to social psychological models • Testing for temporal unreliability • Comparison of original CV 2008/2009 with CV exhibiting procedural changes (e.g., econometric analysis, elicitation format, incentive compatibility) and CM

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