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Hazardous Cell Tracking

Hazardous Cell Tracking. Robert Boldi 29 September 2008 NSSTC/UAH. What is Hazardous Cell Tracking?. Hazardous Severe Lightning, Winds, Hail Tornadoes Cell Compact region embedded within a larger-scale convective system Tracking Compute time-rate-of-change of Cell’s attributes. .

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Hazardous Cell Tracking

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  1. Hazardous Cell Tracking Robert Boldi 29 September 2008 NSSTC/UAH R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH

  2. What is Hazardous Cell Tracking? • Hazardous • Severe Lightning, Winds, Hail • Tornadoes • Cell • Compact region embedded within a larger-scale convective system • Tracking • Compute time-rate-of-change of Cell’s attributes. R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH

  3. Methodology • Construct an “Interest Image”, each pixel of which represents the likelihood that a hazardous cell is present [ 0 .. 1 ] • Track this image using Multi-Scale XCT • Locate “Cells” by thresholding this image • Construct Lagrangian history of properties of the cells • Predict future location of cells ( and properties ) R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH

  4. Constructing “Interest” Image • Functional Template Correlation • A template (small image), convolved against a larger input image, producing an “interest image”, each pixel of which is the probability that the feature represented by the template is present at the given pixel. • Templates map onto simple features ( lines, circular cells, low variance regions, etc. • Fuzzy Logic • Groups of “Images” are combined to produce meteorologically-understandable phenomena, e.g. Stratiform, Convective, Decaying, Growing … • These phenomena are combined to produce the final “Interest Image” R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH

  5. Cell Detection and Tracking Lightning Cell Identification Cell-Scale Motions Interest Image Generator Multi-Scale XCT Tracker Satellite Data Storm-Scale Motions FTC  WxTypes Fuzzy LogicFusion Radar Data R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH

  6. Cell Detection and Tracking Lightning Events Interest Image 2008_04_08 @ 01:48Z Radar Data R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH

  7. Cell Detection R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH

  8. Multi-Scale Tracking Envelope Motion Interest Image 2008_04_08 @ 01:48Z Cell Motion R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH

  9. Multi-Scale Tracking R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH

  10. Cell Identification = Thresholding Interest Image Interest Image 2008_04_08 @ 01:48Z Cell ID’s 2008_04_08 @ 01:48Z R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH

  11. Cell ID’s NOT persistent ( movie ) R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH

  12. Lagrangian History Re-Construction ….. ….. T(-2 dt) T(- dt) Cell 1 History T(0) Multi-Scale Vectors Cell 2 History Current Cell Map T(0) Past Data Advector Cell Integrator Cell 3 History ….. ….. : T(-2 dt) T(- dt) T(0) • Input Fields • Lightning • Radar • Satellite R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH

  13. Advector: Forward Advection of Inputs to Current Time In the absence of convergence, divergence, growth or decay, the alignment would be perfect.  = Past Time Advected to Current Time Current Time Past Time R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH

  14. Advector: Forward Advection of Inputs to Current Time R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH

  15. Lagrangian History Re-Construction R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH

  16. Lagrangian History Re-Construction R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH

  17. Lagrangian History Re-Construction R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH

  18. Cell Position Prediction ….. ….. T(-2 dt) T(- dt) Future Cell Map T(+dt) T(0) Multi-Scale Vectors Current Cell Map T(0) Advector Future Cell Map T(+2.dt) : R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH

  19. Input Field Prediction T(-2 dt) T(- dt) Forecast Input Field T(+dt) T(0) Multi-Scale Vectors Advector Forecast Input Field T(+2.dt) Current Input Field T(0) : Trends, WxType R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH

  20. Summary • Tracker running • Creating Histories for Lightning Jump ALG • Creating Predicted Cell Positions • Platform for Lightning Prediction Work In Progress • Obtaining proxy ABI data for : • WxType • Storm intensity image R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH

  21. THE END R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH

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