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This analysis explores critical issues surrounding the potential separation of Quebec from Canada, including the implications for the Rest of Canada (R.O.C.), the Labrador border, and asset allocation such as national debt valuation. It delves into the complexities of negotiating a partition, especially regarding Aboriginal rights, and examines political dynamics, particularly the emergence of the Action Démocratique du Québec (ADQ). Voter support trends and the impact of leadership and scandals on political stability are discussed, highlighting the shift in Quebec's electoral landscape and the future of interprovincial alliances.
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Issues Surrounding The Separation of Quebec • What Will Happen to R.O.C.? • Labrador Border • Allocation of Assets & Liabilities e.g., proportion of national debt; valuation date of assets • Partition of Quebec Itself - esp. aboriginal people • Who Will Negotiate for Canada if PM is from Quebec? • Free-trade - Quebec-Canada; Quebec-USA • Ill-will • “Once things start to unravel, they’ll move very quickly in ways we cannot foresee. No one can predict the outcome.” (Gordon Richie)
The Rise of a New Force in Quebec: Action Democratique du Quebec • Elections of Realignment(e.g. 1936, 1970)a “third party” moves above 20% of votes • Formation of the ADQdissident Liberals in midst of Charlottetown negotiations in 1992 • Distribution of Voter Support in Quebec Elections Polls 199419982001 2002 Parti Quebecois 44 44 34 25 Liberals 42 45 40 30 ADQ 7 12 18 40
Causes of theRise of the ADQ • Leadership • Scandal • Strategic Impasse • Desire for Political Stability • Belief that The Current Model of Government in Quebec is Not Sustainable
What Would an ADQ Victory Mean to Canada? • Quebec will be more involved in alliances with other provincial governments • Fading of the BQ from the federal political scene • Intergenerational Conflict - Leading cadre of ADQ is in early 30s. They want the baby boom generation to “pay its fair share”. - ADQ is strongest among age 18-28 year olds, but is 1st or 2nd in every age group.