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Day Trading & Swing Trading The Currency Market

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Day Trading & Swing Trading The Currency Market

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  1. $70.00 USA/$77.00 CAN LIEN SECOND EDITION ( c o n t i n u e d f r o m f r o n t f l a p ) DAY TRADING & SWING TRADING the CURRENCY MARKET goes far beyond what other currency trading books cover. It delves into consistently critical questions such as “What Are the Most Market-Moving Indicators for the U.S. Dollar” and “What Are Currency Correlations and How to Use Them,” while touching on topics like “How to Trade like a Hedge Fund Manager” and “The Impact of Seasonality in the Currency Market” that could give you a distinct edge in this competitive arena. SECOND EDITION I volume past the $3 trillion mark, there are many profi t- able opportunities available in this arena—but only if you understand how to operate within it. Praise for the First Edition ????????????? ????????????? ???????????? ?????? ?????????? ????????? ??????? DAY TRADING & SWING TRADING the CURRENCY MARKET n only a few short years, the currency/foreign ex- change (FX) market has grown signifi cantly. With institutions and individuals driving daily average “I thought this was one of the best books that I had read on FX. The book should be required reading not only for traders new to the foreign exchange markets, but also for seasoned professionals. I’ll defi nitely be keeping it on my desk for reference. The book is very readable and very educational. In fact, I wish that Kathy’s book had been around when I had fi rst started out in FX. It would have saved me from a lot of heartache from reading duller books, and would have saved me a lot of time from having to learn things the hard way. I look forward to reading other books from her in the future.” —Farooq Muzammal, Head of Foreign Exchange, MAREX Capital Technical and Fundamental Strategies to Profit from Market Moves Filled with proven trading strategies as well as detailed statistical analysis, the Second Edition of Day Trad- ing and Swing Trading the Currency Market will help you achieve unparalleled success in the most actively traded market in the world. That’s why Kathy Lien—Director of Currency Re- search for one of the most popular Forex providers in the world—has created Day Trading and Swing Trad- ing the Currency Market, Second Edition. Written for both the experienced and aspiring trader, this updated guide outlines the essential elements of the FX market and reveals the latest trends, data, and strategies that all traders, particularly day and swing traders, need to be aware of in order to excel in this fast-moving fi eld. “Kathy’s book is an indispensable tool for Forex traders, whether you are a pro- fessional or novice. It not only lays the groundwork for an in-depth understanding of Forex trading, it also contains numerous fundamental and technical strategies . . . . I suspect that many traders will be keeping Kathy’s book within arm’s reach for many years to come.” —Eddie Kwong, Executive VP/Editor in Chief, Tradingmarkets.com KATHY LIEN is the Director of Currency Research at Global Forex Trading, Division of Global Futures & Forex, Ltd. She is responsible for providing research and analysis, in- cluding technical and fundamental research reports, market commen- taries, and trading strategies. Prior After an engaging introduction to how the foreign ex- change market has evolved over the last few years and a look at some of its historical milestones, this book quickly moves on to address the innovative trading insights that will enhance your profi tability within today’s FX market. Page by page, you’ll become familiar with: “In Day Trading the Currency Market, Kathy Lien provides traders with unique, thoughtful, and profi table insight on trading this exciting market. This book should be required reading for all traders, whether they are novices to Forex or experienced professionals.” —Cory Janssen, cofounder, Investopedia.com to joining GFT, Lien was the chief strategist of DailyFX. com and an associate at JPMorgan Chase, where she worked in cross-markets and foreign exchange trading. She has vast experience within the interbank market using both technical and fundamental analysis to trade FX spot and options. She also has experience trading a number of products outside of FX, includ- ing interest rate derivatives, bonds, equities, and fu- tures. Lien has written for Active Trader, Futures, and SFO magazines and is frequently quoted on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business, and Reuters. She is also the author of the fi rst edition of Day Trading the Cur- rency Market as well as Millionaire Traders, both of which are published by Wiley. “There are aspects to trading currencies that are different from trading equities, options, or futures. In this book, Kathy Lien provides deep insight into all the mechanisms that take place in the currency markets. Any currency trader will gain more confi dence in their trading after reading this book.” —Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan, Editor, Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities • New technical trading strategies, which include how to trade news, effectively time market turns, and capture new shifts in momentum • Proven fundamental trading strategies, which involve trading off commodity prices, fi xed income instru- ments, and option volatilities; as well as intervention- based trades and macro event-driven trades • The unique characteristics of each major currency pair—from when they are most active to what drives their price action • Trading through different market conditions, by fi rst profi ling a trading environment and then applying specifi c indicators for that environment • And much more “Kathy has done a brilliant job with this book. She speaks directly to traders and gives them guidance to improve their performance as Forex traders. I took some notes and ideas from the book myself that are going to be very useful for my business.” —Francesc Riverola, CEO and founder, FXstreet.com Jacket Design: Loretta Leiva Jacket Photograph: © Getty Images ???????????????????????????????????? ??????????????????????????? ?????????? Director of Currency Research at GFT Both informative and accessible, the Second Edition of Day Trading and Swing Trading the Currency Market ( c o n t i n u e d o n b a c k f l a p ) EAN: 9780470377369 ISBN 978-0-470-37736-9

  2. P1: JYS fm JWBK299-Lein September 23, 2008 9:43 Printer: Yet to come ii

  3. P1: JYS fm JWBK299-Lein September 23, 2008 9:43 Printer: Yet to come Day Trading and Swing Trading the Currency Market i

  4. P1: JYS fm JWBK299-Lein September 23, 2008 9:43 Printer: Yet to come Founded in 1807, John Wiley & Sons is the oldest independent publish- ing company in the United States. With offices in North America, Europe, Australia and Asia, Wiley is globally committed to developing and market- ing print and electronic products and services for our customers’ profes- sional and personal knowledge and understanding. The Wiley Trading series features books by traders who have survived the market’s ever changing temperament and have prospered—some by reinventing systems, others by getting back to basics. Whether a novice trader, professional or somewhere in-between, these books will provide the advice and strategies needed to prosper today and well into the future. For a list of available titles, visit our Web site at www.WileyFinance.com. ii

  5. P1: JYS fm JWBK299-Lein September 23, 2008 9:43 Printer: Yet to come Day Trading and Swing Trading the Currency Market Second Edition Technical and Fundamental Strategies to Profit from Market Moves KATHY LIEN Director of Currency Research, GFT John Wiley & Sons, Inc. iii

  6. P1: JYS fm JWBK299-Lein September 23, 2008 9:43 Printer: Yet to come Copyright C ?2009 by Kathy Lien. All rights reserved. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey. Published simultaneously in Canada. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, (978) 750-8400, fax (978) 646-8600, or on the web at www.copyright.com. Requests to the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, (201) 748-6011, fax (201) 748-6008, or online at http://www.wiley.com/go/permissions. Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and author have used their best efforts in preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and specifically disclaim any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. No warranty may be created or extended by sales representatives or written sales materials. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. You should consult with a professional where appropriate. Neither the publisher nor author shall be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial damages, including but not limited to special, incidental, consequential, or other damages. For general information on our other products and services or for technical support, please contact our Customer Care Department within the United States at (800) 762-2974, outside the United States at (317) 572-3993 or fax (317) 572-4002. Wiley also publishes its books in a variety of electronic formats. Some content that appears in print may not be available in electronic books. For more information about Wiley products, visit our web site at www.wiley.com. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data: Lien, Kathy, 1980– Day trading and swing trading the currency market : technical and fundamental strategies to profit from market moves / Kathy Lien. – 2nd ed. p. cm. – (Wiley trading series) Rev. ed. of: Day trading the currency market. c2006. Includes index. ISBN 978-0-470-37736-9 (cloth) 1. Foreign exchange futures. 2. Foreign exchange market. Kathy, 1980–. Day trading the currency market. HG3853.L54 2009 332.4?5 – dc22 3. Speculation. I. Lien, II. Title. 2008034576 Printed in the United States of America. 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 iv

  7. P1: JYS fm JWBK299-Lein September 23, 2008 9:43 Printer: Yet to come Contents Preface vii Acknowledgments xiii CHAPTER 1 Foreign Exchange—The Fastest-Growing Market of Our Time 1 21 CHAPTER 2 Historical Events in the FX Market CHAPTER 3 What Moves the Currency Market in the Long Term? 37 What Moves the Market in the Short Term? 59 CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 5 What Are the Best Times to Trade for Individual Currency Pairs? 67 CHAPTER 6 What Are Currency Correlations and How Do Traders Use Them? 75 CHAPTER 7 Seasonality—How It Applies to the FX Market 81 CHAPTER 8 Trade Parameters for Different Market Conditions 91 109 CHAPTER 9 Technical Trading Strategies 165 CHAPTER 10 Fundamental Trading Strategies v

  8. P1: JYS fm JWBK299-Lein September 23, 2008 9:43 Printer: Yet to come vi CONTENTS How to Trade Like a Hedge Fund Manager 207 CHAPTER 11 CHAPTER 12 Profiles and Unique Characteristics of Major Currency Pairs 215 About the Author 273 Index 275

  9. P1: JYS fm JWBK299-Lein September 23, 2008 9:43 Printer: Yet to come Preface S ume now exceeds $3 trillion, a 70 percent jump over the past three years. As a direct result of this surge in interest, more participants have flooded the markets with different ways to trade currencies. The popularity of the Day Trading the Currency Market book has en- couraged me to give the second edition a twist—this time I have added swing trading strategies! After having taught seminars across the country on how to trade cur- rencies, I have received a lot of good feedback about the book (thank you!), and I hope that everyone will enjoy the new techniques in the second edi- tion just as much as you have enjoyed the strategies and lessons in the first! ince the first edition of Day Trading the Currency Market, which was published in 2005, the foreign exchange market has changed dra- matically. The most notable change is the fact that daily average vol- The original book focuses heavily on fundamentals, but the new edi- tion includes chapters on trading methodologies, statistical analysis, and, of course, additional strategies. I have also added comprehensive sections on how to trade like a hedge fund manager and the impact of seasonality in the currency market. If you are picking up a copy of Day Trading and Swing Trading the Currency Market for the very first time, you will not be disappointed. As a traderfirstandananalystsecond,inthisbookIfocusonwhatmattersmost to currency traders. The first edition has been one of the top resources for those looking for a good primer on how the currency markets work—the technical and fundamental drivers as well as actionable trading strategies. There is something for everyone in this book, as it is designed for both the beginner and the advanced trader. In this book, I try to accomplish two major goals: to touch on the basics of the FX market and the currency char- acteristics that all traders, particularly day traders, need to know, as well as to give you practical strategies to start trading. Day Trading and Swing Trading the Currency Market goes beyond what other currency trading vii

  10. P1: JYS fm JWBK299-Lein September 23, 2008 9:43 Printer: Yet to come viii PREFACE books cover and delves into such interesting topics as the top market- moving indicators for the U.S. dollar and what currency correlations are and how to use them. Here’s a brief road map to whet your appetite on the topics covered in this book. FOREIGN EXCHANGE—THE FASTEST-GROWING MARKET OF OUR TIME If you are wondering whether you should get into the FX market, take a look at some of the reasons why the largest market in the world has al- ways been the market of choice for the big players such as hedge funds and institutional investors. Learn about why the FX market has exploded over the past three years and the advantages that the FX spot market has over the more traditional equities and futures markets—something that the most seasoned traders of the world have known for decades. HISTORICAL EVENTS IN THE FX MARKET How can you trade the currency market without knowing some of the major milestones that helped to shape the market into what it has be- come today? There are countless events that are still talked about and brought up despite the many years that have passed since they occurred. This chapter covers Bretton Woods, the end of the Bretton Woods, the Plaza Accord, George Soros and how he came to fame, the Asian finan- cial crisis, the launch of the euro, and the bursting of the technology bubble. DIFFERENT WAYS TO TRADE THE FX MARKET Over the past few years, the FX market has evolved significantly. Many products have been introduced as alternative ways to invest in or trade currencies. Foreign exchange spot is the oldest of these markets and rep- resents the underlying asset for a lot of the new derivative products. Op- tions, futures, and forwards are the next oldest, but forwards are generally limited to a nonretail audience. An entire book can be dedicated to the dif- ferences between all of the new derivative products, but for the purpose

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