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New Mexico Population Projections: Assumptions and Methods

This study presents population projections for New Mexico based on census data and vital records. Assumptions include total fertility rate, life expectancy, and migration patterns. The methods involve cohort component modeling and validation of natural increase and migration. Historical trends are compared using Excel macros.

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New Mexico Population Projections: Assumptions and Methods

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  1. New Mexico Population Projections: Assumptions, Methods, Validation, and Results For the Data User Conference Geospatial and Population Studies University of New Mexico Nov. 2013

  2. Method • Using the Census 2010 county level age-sex break-ups as the base year anchor population. • Using NMDOH Birth Records to calculate 5-year average 5-year age group birth rate. • Using NMDOH Death Records to calculate 5-year average single-year ASMR. • Migration from three sources: forward surviving, backward surviving, and IRS tax return exempts.

  3. Decomposing Process to fit into Cohort Component Method Input Basic Population Component Data input Base Population 1 year or 5 year age group population by sex + Childbearing age population Data input TFR Birth ASFR - Sex Ratio Data input ASMR Life Table and Life Expectancy Death CDR + Census Forward Survival migration Data input IRS cross tabulated migration Migration = Single Year Age Population Projection Process Future Population Method Summary

  4. Assumptions • Total fertility rate, TFR, is used as the assumption for birth, and is assumed to converge at 2.1 at the end of projection period. • Life expectancy is used to represent the assumption for mortality, and is assumed to converge at national level at the end of projection period. • Migration population is assumed to join and share the same TFR and life expectancy as local people.

  5. Migration Method: Forward Surviving

  6. Migration Method: Backward Surviving

  7. Migration Method: Average Three Sets of Migration Data • Average age-sex structure from forward and backward surviving method • Apply the averaged age-sex structure to the tax return exempt county totals • Average the three sets of migration data to obtain the data for migration input • Run Cohort Component Model

  8. Migration Method: Comparison New Mexico Annual Total Net Migration 10 year average, both sex

  9. Validation: Natural Increase and Migration • The percentage contribution of natural increase and net migration changes over the 30 years.

  10. Validation: Dependency Ratio for Young Group

  11. Validation: Dependency Ratio for Senior Group

  12. Validation: Dependency Ratio over Projection Period

  13. Comparison of Historical Trend

  14. Using Excel Macro Program to Retrieve Customized Data Table Result

  15. Thank you! Contact：Xiaomin Ruan xmruan@gmail.com 505-277-3541

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