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EGYPT POPULATION PROJECTIONS

EGYPT POPULATION PROJECTIONS. Egypt Demographic Indicators. Population (2004): 68.6 million Percent of males: 51.1% Percent urban: 42.5% Birth rate: 26.1 Death rate: 6.5 Total fertility rate: 3.2 child/woman Life expectancy: 67.1(M) 71.5(F) Marriage rate: 7.7 per thousand

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EGYPT POPULATION PROJECTIONS

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  1. EGYPT POPULATIONPROJECTIONS

  2. Egypt Demographic Indicators Population (2004): 68.6 million Percent of males: 51.1% Percent urban: 42.5% Birth rate: 26.1 Death rate: 6.5 Total fertility rate: 3.2 child/woman Life expectancy: 67.1(M) 71.5(F) Marriage rate: 7.7 per thousand Divorce rate: 1.1 per thousand

  3. Egypt Demographic Indicators Labor force size: 20.6 million Unemployment rate:10.7% Pre- university students 15.3 million Primary stage: 49.6% Preparatory stage: 27.8% Secondary stage:22.6% University students 1.5 million Females :47.5%

  4. Population Policy Quantitative Objectives 2002-2017

  5. This presentation illustrates the assumptions and main results of the 4 projections conducted recently. The 4 projections used the cohort component method.

  6. Existing population Projections This presentation illustrates the assumptions and main results of the 4 projections conducted recently. The 4 projections used the cohort component method.

  7. Population and Labor Force in Egypt, Egypt 2020 Project • The Policy Project, Egypt's Population Projections, 2000-2017 • CAPMAS, Egypt’s Population Projections,1996-2021 • CDC Egypt’s Population Projections, 1996-2021

  8. I. Egypt 2020 Egypt 2020 project conducted a study on population and labor force in Egypt, which started by population projections for each of the 6 regions separately: urban governorates, urban lower Egypt, rural lower Egypt, urban upper Egypt, rural upper Egypt, frontier governorates. 5 different political scenarios

  9. Main assumptions: Fertility: fertility level will decrease over time and the pace of change will differ across regions and by political scenarios. Mortality: Life expectancy will increase over time and the pace of change will differ by political scenarios. Internal migration: mobility between the 6 regions will differ by political scenarios in terms of direction and magnitude. International migration was not considered.

  10. Expectation of life at birth

  11. TFR by regions

  12. Projected population

  13. II. The Policy Project The Policy project in Egypt conducted a study on “Egypt population projections 2000-2017” in 2002. 1996 Population census of Egypt was taken as a base year for the projection using Spectrum software package.

  14. Main assumptions: Mortality component: the model life table used is the UN General model. Migration component :the net migration is assumed to be negligible. Fertility: it was assumed that there would be three assumptions for total fertility rates along the period (2000-2017) as follow:

  15. Assumed TFR High assumption: TFR reach replacement level fertility (TFR=2.1) in 2017. Medium assumption: TFR reach replacement level fertility (TFR=2.1) in 2027. And the expected TFR for 2017 =2.5 Low assumption: TFR will remain constant at its level (3.5) in 2000 up to 2017

  16. Projected population

  17. III. CAPMAS, Egypt’s Population Projections,1996-2021 The Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistic conducted a project labeled “Impact of population increase on development in Egypt” which included population projections based on 1996 census.

  18. Expectation of life at birth

  19. Main assumptions: Fertility component: it was assumed that there would be two assumptions for total fertility rates along the period (1996-2021) : High assumption: fertility would be constant along the period Low assumption: fertility would achieve 2.09 in 2021

  20. Main assumptions: Migration component was neglected.

  21. Projected population

  22. Comparison between projected population from different studies

  23. Comparison between projected population different studies

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