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Population Projections – Local Authority Usage

This document explores the multifaceted aspects of population projections at the local authority level, focusing on size, geography, and types of governance (unitary, county, district). It highlights issues such as ethnic diversity, rural challenges, and population growth or decline. Additionally, the text examines the use of projections in strategic planning for health, education, housing, and transportation. It discusses the influence of grants and policy-based forecasts, addressing concerns around data accuracy and the need for more tailored approaches to fit diverse local contexts.

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Population Projections – Local Authority Usage

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  1. Population Projections –Local Authority Usage Greg Ball

  2. Variety • Is there a single local authority view? • Size: population and geography • Type: Unitary, county, district, metropolitan, London • Local issues: BME, rural, growth,decline • Expertise, interest, resources • My personal perspective only

  3. Uses of projections/forecasts • The Grant Formula – major impact • Planning • Spatial (RSS/LDF) • Health, “Wanless” strategic needs review • Education, Skills • Leisure, Open Space, Retail, Crematoria • Transportation • Housing needs • Boundary reviews

  4. Time Horizons • Long-term • Regional Spatial Strategies and LDFs • Short-term • The grant settlement! • Current year planning/monitoring/PIs • Short/medium term service plans

  5. Beyond population • Households • Ethnic Group • Labour Force • Disability

  6. Why some(?)Councils do not use ONS projections • Technical reservations about method • Concerns over data quality • Need Policy-based forecasts • Migration • May use technical inputs from projections • May use selectively

  7. Possible Wants • Accurate • Timely, regular, frequent • Valid over long and short term • Other geographies • Details about population • Access to detailed assumptions and results • Variants or indicators of sensitivity • Policy related? • The impossible dream?

  8. Timing • Time-lag in production • In past – irregular & sometimes infrequent • Out of sync with policy deadlines • Discrepancies between projections and estimates • The grant settlement! • Current year planning/monitoring • Should we simplify to • increase frequency? • cut time lags?

  9. Geography • ONS is local authority based, but are other needs • PCTs • Small area • Wards/ Census Output Areas • New development areas • City Centres • Traffic Zones • Regional & Cross border strategies • Birmingham/Solihull Corridor

  10. Detail about the population • End Users • The beginning & the end • Children and older people - detailed ages • The middle • Workforce & Housing – less interest in age detail • Age groups overlap (0-17; 12-19 etc) • Implications of turnover & migration • Add-ons – disability, ethnic groups • Analysts and demographers need • Quinary, preferably single year

  11. Access to data & assumptions • To build our policy-based models we need access to • detailed assumptions behind projections • fertility, mortality, migrant age structures • unrounded & detailed ONS projection data in appropriate formats

  12. Variant Projections? • Probably unmanageable for all areas with current model but perhaps for regions? • Natural Change only • Sensitivity indicators

  13. Policy v Trend? • ONS projections are ‘trend-based’ but is the future they project the most likely? • Policy based forecasts • What policy? • Birmingham Plan informed by 1996 projections • Regional Strategy uses 2003-based (being revised to 2004-based) • Policy takes time to affect outcomes

  14. Hierarchy & Inflexibility • Model ensures consistency with national projections and balances internal migration flows • Does hierarchical control produce unrealistic results in some areas? • Inflexibility in modelling international migration flows at local level

  15. One Size fits all? • Can one method work in all areas? • Population size (25,000 to 1 million) • Scale & nature of population change • Students, armed forces, ethnic groups • Retirement areas, commuter hinterlands, areas close to ports of entry for immigrants

  16. A tailored approach? • Local Authority level • Short term, simple method, frequent review • Data & methodology advice • Regions • Long term • Variant assumptions & policy effects

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