FUTURES FOR HIGHER EDUCATION Trends presentation 2011
This presentation focuses on three main trends A PICTURE FOR THE FUTURE?
This slide illustrates components of the day Outcome 1 What is hoped for in the30-year vision? Outcome 2 • NOW • Current situation • 2/3-5 years • ‘Lock ins’ • Long-term drivers Outcome 3 Long-term choices Short-term choices Institutional level Sector level ‘Segment stories’ A. B. C. Keyindicators 2010 2015 2040 1. 2. 3.
These are some caricatures of the last decade • Demand continuing to outstrip heavily regulated supply • Persistence of a dominant 3 year residential degree model – prestige of traditional models • Private providers and FE marginal or subordinate to universities
We are now set for a liberalisation of the market • Supply side liberalisation • Tuition fee replacing grant – with more scope for differentiation in cost (Or not...) • Stronger demand led focus on ‘quality’ • Introduction of amendable mechanisms to restrain taxpayer liability
A big assumption that needs to be assessed Ongoing and growing demand for higher education and research
However - the worst financial and economic crisis since 1929 started in 2007 Our GDP growth forecast is slow relative to previous recoveries. This reflects the effects of the fiscal consolidation, the relatively slow easing of tight credit conditions and ongoing private sector deleveraging. (Office for budget responsibility: March 2011) Given rising pressure on governments’ balance sheets and limitations on public funding growth, Moody’s anticipates that the university sector will, over the long term, seek more independent sources of funding to finance growth and expansion. We anticipate that endowment fund building through philanthropy, enrolments of international students and borrowing will rise in some countries. (Moody’s International Public Finance: Higher Education, June 2009)
How will these changes affect pressures around... • ‘Customer’ satisfaction – quality of teaching and facilities? • Staff and professional satisfaction – the volume and quality of research? • Prestige and the push for ‘world class’ status – continued cost inflation?
This is being driven by global economic development China seeks to be the Asian country with the greatest number of international students and a major destination in the world for international students, according to goals outlined in its National Plan for Medium and Long-Term Education Reform and Development (2010–2020). With an annual international student growth rate of 7%, international student numbers will reach at least 500,000 by 2020, making it the biggest hosting country in Asia. (China on the Cusp: Becoming the biggest international student destination in Asia: The Observatory on Borderless Higher Education)
Producing new concentrations of demand UK providers with courses in Hong Kong • Birmingham City University • Coventry University • De Montfort University • Edinburgh Napier University • Glyndwr University • Herriot-Watt University • Kingston University • Lancaster University • Leeds Metropolitan University • Manchester Metropolitan University • Middlesex University • Nottingham Trent University • Oxford Brookes University • Queen Mary, University of London • Sheffield Hallam University • Staffordshire University • Swansea Metropolitan University • The Royal Veterinary College, University of London • The University of Bolton • The University of Hull • The University of Nottingham • The University of Salford • University College Birmingham • University of Bath • University of Bedford • University of Birmingham • University of Bradford • University of Central Lancashire • University of Derby • University of Durham • University of Glamorgan • University of Gloucestershire • University of Greenwich • University of Hertfordshire • University of Huddersfield • University of Leicester • University of London • University of Manchester • University of Northampton • University of Northumbria • University of Plymouth • University of Portsmouth • University of Reading • University of Strathclyde • University of Sunderland • University of Surrey • University of Ulster • University of Wales • University of Wales, Newport • University of Warwick • University of Wolverhampton • University of the West of England, Bristol • York St John University
And increasingly global research networks The continued strength of the traditional centres of scientific excellence and the emergence of new players and leaders point towards an increasingly multipolar scientific world, in which the distribution of scientific activity is concentrated in a number of widely dispersed hubs. Royal society 2011
Research concentration may affect your institution’s positioning domestically and globally
Or will a drift toward contract based funding present challenges or opportunities? HEBCI survey
How will financial models evolve? • Efficiencies: streamlining and new accounting practices? • Costs: hollowing out of functions as part of efficiency and modernisation strategies – narrower focus? • Funding: new models of private revenue? • New ways of monetising the asset base – investment driven organisations?
And what about online – are we leaving a decade of disappointment? • Development in CPD & TNE: • Facilitated • Blended • Online • Increasingly bottom up adoption and adaptation of technologies – e.g. Cloud computing • Do technologies require review of methods? • Navigating knowledge • Intercultural and online learning • Research methods & networks
And what about ‘unbundled’ models of delivery? • The role of technology in enabling the disaggregation of delivery and compartmentalised ‘products’ • The delivery process: • Content – syllabus, research & scholarship • Classroom – teaching, lectures, supervision • Infrastructure – IT networks, libraries, estates etc • The ‘product’: • Pay as you go tuition, credit accumulation • Examination, accreditation and validation • Assessment • Library services • Accommodation • Student finance?
And through all of this generations will change – what will this mean?
And social priorities will evolve – what will be the next one? • The shift to a digital society: innovated and incubated by universities in the first place • Will it all be about technological and social solutions for climate change, or something else? Future of UK university research base, UUK 2010
Some initial questions for the group • What is right, wrong or missing from this picture: or have you heard it too often to care? • What is most significant for you and what are you less bothered about? • What are the most significant uncertainties and how might these shape outcomes? • What other ways are there or should there be of looking at all this?