EconFirst Associates LLC with HSUS Support

1. WILD HORSE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM: POPULATION PROJECTION & COSTING MODEL EconFirst Associates LLC with HSUS Support

2. Horse Population Management Over Populated Range Foaling Gather? No Yes Remove? No Yes Contraception Short & Long Term Holding Desired Range Population Adoption

3. Goals of Wild Horse Management • Achieve target range populations • Treat wild horses humanely • Respect Budget Constraints

4. CURRENT APPROACH NOT SUSTAINABLE • Range populations grow as much as 25% /Yr. • Therefore frequency & size of removals grow • High pop. growth means more young horses • Therefore longer time in holding facilities

5. The BUDGET must be considered • Federal budget constraints will limit BLM’s Management Options • Therefore costs must be considered if this committee’s recommendations are to endure

6. Population Model Starting range population Foaling Probability Add Foals Environmental Impacts (weather, drought, etc.) Contraception Effectiveness Survival Probability Subtract Deaths Gather Efficiency Subtract Removals Short & Long Term Holding Ending Range Population

7. Simulates Probable Population Outcomes 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Year

8. This System Adds Optimization to Simulation • Optimize Population Intervention • Optimize Use of Scarce Resources • Optimize Population Target Levels • Optimize within Budget Constraints

9. Successful Management will Optimize Initial Plan and Adjust as Data is Augmented

10. Planning is a Moving Target Given Variability of Range Environments Active Interaction with Simulations

11. Successful Management will Include all HMAs

12. Successful Management will Require Better Data Collection

13. MODEL COMPONENTS • Dynamic Population Simulation model • Economic Costing Model • Management Optimization Model • Population & Range Database System

14. The Projection Model • Simulates single or multiple HMAs • Adjusts as new data becomes available • Integrates population simulation and costs • Combines simulation and optimization to reach population and cost targets

15. A Tool to Manage Wild Horse Areas • Find optimum mix and timing of • Gathers, Removals and Fertility Treatment

16. Optimization under Uncertainity • Timing & Frequency of Gathers • Extent of Fertility Treatment • Reach or adjust AML targets • Subject to Cost constraints

17. Reverse Optimization • Given budget, determine reachable AMLs • Subject to carrying capacity constraints • Subject to min-max levels

18. Simulation Example for Single HMA

19. Single HMA: Baseline Simulation if no Mgt. Year 12 = 10,418 Base Year = 3,750

20. If Planned Removals every 3 yrs Base Year 3,750 AML target = 333

21. Planned Removals every 3 yrs – relaxed AML AML target = 1,500

22. If Only 1 Removal & Treatments Every 3 Yrs

23. Cost Comparisons *Present value at 4.3% (CBO)

24. Simulation Approximation for All HMAs

25. Age Distribution on Range

26. Young Horses Expand Rapidly All approach Log Normal distribution over time

27. Tests of Robustness • Does approach work with different initial population distributions? • Does it work for multiple HMAs? • Does it incorporate new data as it becomes available?

28. All HMAs : 3 Year Phase-in Removals Only Base Year = 40,044 AML target = 24,750

29. All HMAs : 3 Year Phase-in With Treatment AML target = 24,750

30. Cost Comparison All HMAs *Present value at 4.3% (CBO)

31. MODEL COMPONENTS • Dynamic Population Simulation model • Economic Costing Model • Management Optimization Model • Population & Range Database System

32. WILD HORSE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM: POPULATION PROJECTION & COSTING MODEL EconFirst Associates LLC with HSUS Support