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Revised GDP Estimates for 2008

Revised GDP Estimates for 2008. Presented by Magnus Ebo Duncan On 30 th April 2008. Outline of the presentation. GDP and its importance Types of GDP estimation Compilation & Estimation of GDP by the Production Approach Schedule of updates Revised estimates for 2008.

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Revised GDP Estimates for 2008

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  1. Revised GDP Estimates for 2008 Presented by Magnus Ebo Duncan On 30th April 2008

  2. Outline of the presentation • GDP and its importance • Types of GDP estimation • Compilation & Estimation of GDP by the Production Approach • Schedule of updates • Revised estimates for 2008

  3. What is Gross Domestic Product (GDP)? The total value of the final goods and services produced in the country during a given period, usually one year

  4. Importance of GDP • To measure the performance of the economy in a given time period • To compare the level of performance from year to year • To assess the performance of the various sectors of the economy

  5. Measurement Approaches • Production Approach • Expenditure Approach • Income Approach

  6. Generation and Use of National Income Domestic private savings Wages & rents Factor Markets Factor cost Gov’t savings Taxes Intermediate demand Firms Households Government Save/Invest Transfers Gov’t exp. Invest. exp. Private cons. Sales revenues Product Markets Domestic demand for final goods Import payments Export receipts Foreign savings Rest of world

  7. Compilation & estimation of GDP by the Production approach

  8. MAIN AND SUB SECTORS FOR THE GDP COMPILATION AGRICULTURE Crops and Livestock Cocoa Production and Marketing Forestry and Logging Fishing INDUSTRY Mining and Quarrying Manufacturing Electricity and Water Construction SERVICES Transport, Storage and Communication Wholesale and Retail Trade, Restaurants and Hotels Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Business Services Government Services   Community, Social and Personal Services Producers of Private Non- profit Services

  9. Main and sub sectors for the GDP compilation 1. AGRICULTURE Crops and Livestock Cocoa Production and Marketing Forestry and Logging Fishing   2. INDUSTRY 2.1 Mining and Quarrying 2.2 Manufacturing 2.3 Electricity and Water 2.4 Construction   3. SERVICES 3.1 Transport, Storage and Communication 3.2 Wholesale and Retail Trade, Restaurants and Hotels 3.3 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Business Services 3.4 Government Services   3.5 Community, Social and Personal Services 3.6 Producers of Private Non- profit Services

  10. Sources of Data • administrative records (Public and Private Enterprises, MDAs) • Surveys (Households and Specific) • Censuses

  11. Sources of Data – Agricultural Sector • Data on crop production - Statistics, Research and Information Division (SRID) of MOFA • Data on livestock production - Animal Health & Production Department • Cocoa production & marketing - COCOBOD • Data on forestry & logging - Forestry Commission • Data on Fishing - Fisheries Department

  12. Sources of Data – Industrial Sector Mining & Quarrying • Mines Department and Minerals Commission • Precious Minerals Marketing Company Electricity and Water • Electricity Company of Ghana Ltd • Volta River Authority • Ghana Water Company Ltd

  13. Sources of Data – Industrial Sector (Cont.) Manufacturing – a combination of • Information from the Ghana Living Standard Survey • VAT data • Financial Statements of Selected Establishments Construction • Ghacem Ltd and Diamond Cement • Imports • VAT data

  14. Sources of Data – Services Sector Wholesale & Retail Trade, Hotels & Restaurants • Commodity flow • VAT data • Ghana Living Standard Survey (GLSS) Transport and Communication • Major transport companies • DVLA • Ghana Post, Vodafone, Scanscom, Millicom, Kasapa

  15. Sources of Data – Services Sector (Cont.) Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services • Banks • Insurance Companies • VAT

  16. Sources of Data – Services Sector (Cont.) Government Services • Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning • Ministry of Local Government • Bank of Ghana • Controller and Accountant General’s Department

  17. Sources of Data – Services Sector (Cont.) Community, Social & Personal Service • Ghana Living Standard Surveys (GLSS) • VAT data Producers of Private Non-Profit Services (NPISH) • Religious Organizations • Civil Society Organizations • TUC

  18. Valuation of GDP • GDP at Current Prices (Nominal GDP) • GDP at Constant Prices (Real GDP)

  19. GDP at Current Prices • GDP computed at the prevailing market prices of the given year • This is also referred to as the nominal GDP

  20. GDP at Constant Prices • The GDP at current prices deflated to a given base year prices • Using the appropriate price indices (e.g. CPI, PPI, Exchange Rate Index, Minimum Wage Index etc.) • Currently, the base year for the constant estimates of Ghana’s GDP is 1993

  21. -Projected -provisional-Revised-final TYPES OF ESTIMATES

  22. Projected Estimates • They are made for future periods where economic activities have not taken place or no data on activities are available • The estimates are made based on • government policies and decisions • Trend analysis and other economic models • assumptions (eg. weather)

  23. Provisional Estimates • Any changes made to the projected estimates, using data which cover about half of the year under consideration • Provisional estimates are normally ready by September

  24. Revised Estimates • Revision of the provisional figures is based on full year data for most of the sub-sectors. • The revised GDP is normally ready by April of the subsequent year (for e.g. Revised GDP estimates of 2007 were generated in April 2008)

  25. Final Estimates The estimates are designated final when data for all the subsectors for the year under consideration are used to make adjustments in the revised estimates.

  26. REVISED ESTIMATES FOR 2008

  27. Real GDP Growth Rate in the Agriculture Sector -2008

  28. Real Growth in the Industry Sector - 2008

  29. Real Growth in the Services Sector - 2008

  30. Revised GDP estimates - 2008

  31. Final GDP Estimates for 2007(Millions of GH Cedis)

  32. Revised GDP Estimates for 2008 (Millions of GH Cedis)

  33. Major Indicators

  34. WAY FORWORD

  35. Planned Activities • Rebasing of the national accounts - Changing the base year from 1993 to a more recent year - Compilation of the GDP by Expenditure Approach - Compilation of more national accounts aggregates • Quarterly National Accounts • Quarterly Economic Bulletin

  36. Acknowledgement The Government Statistician wishes to extend her sincere thanks to all stakeholders, who in diverse ways, provide inputs for the compilation of the national accounts. THANK YOU

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