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Resource Adequacy Reliability Criterion Workshop

Resource Adequacy Reliability Criterion Workshop. Sponsored by the NEPOOL Power Supply Planning Committee Sheraton Springfield Monarch Place Hotel, Springfield, MA November 18, 2004. Philip A. Fedora Director, Market Reliability Interface Northeast Power Coordinating Council.

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Resource Adequacy Reliability Criterion Workshop

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  1. Resource Adequacy Reliability Criterion Workshop Sponsored by the NEPOOL Power Supply Planning Committee Sheraton Springfield Monarch Place Hotel, Springfield, MA November 18, 2004 Philip A. Fedora Director, Market Reliability Interface Northeast Power Coordinating Council

  2. Northeast Power Coordinating Council • NPCC • One million • square miles • 54 million people • 50% US • 50% Canadian • Represents 70% • of Canadian Load http://www.npcc.org/ November 18, 2004

  3. NPCC Statistics Projected 2004 Summer Coincident Peak Demand 104,520 MW Projected 2004 Summer Net Capacity 143,670 MW Historically, the summer peak loads and temperatures between New England and New York can have a high degree of correlation; there is also some potential for the Ontario summer peak demand to be coincident. The Canadian Provinces of Québec and the Maritimes experience their highest electricity demand in the winter. November 18, 2004

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  6. NPCC Basic Criteria for Design and OperationOf Interconnected Power Systems 3.0 Resource Adequacy - Design Criteria Each Area’s probability (or risk) of disconnecting any firm load due to resource deficiencies shall be, on average, not more than once in ten years. Compliance with this criteria shall be evaluated probabilistically, such that the loss of load expectation [LOLE] of disconnecting firm load due to resource deficiencies shall be, on average, no more than 0.1 day per year. http://www.npcc.org/PublicFiles/Reliability/CriteriaGuidesProcedures/A-02.pdf November 18, 2004

  7. NPCC Basic Criteria for Design and OperationOf Interconnected Power Systems 3.0 Resource Adequacy - Design Criteria This evaluation shall make due allowance for demand uncertainty, scheduled outages and deratings, forced outages and deratings, assistance over interconnections with neighboring Areas and Regions, transmission transfer capabilities, and capacity and/or load relief from available operating procedures. http://www.npcc.org/PublicFiles/Reliability/CriteriaGuidesProcedures/A-02.pdf November 18, 2004

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  9. NPCC Guidelines for Area Review ofResource Adequacy Purpose The purpose of the presentation associated with a resource adequacy review is to ascertain that each Area's proposed resources are in accordance with the NPCC Basic Criteria for Design and Operation of Interconnected Power Systems (Document A-2). By such a presentation, the Task Force will satisfy itself that the proposed resources of each NPCC Area will meet the NPCC Resource Adequacy - Design Criteria (as defined in Section 3.0 of NPCC Document A-2) over the time period under consideration. This review by the Task Force on Coordination of Planning does not replace Area and/or company responsibility to assess their systems in conformity with the NPCC Basic Criteria. http://www.npcc.org/PublicFiles/Reliability/CriteriaGuidesProcedures/B-08.pdf November 18, 2004

  10. NPCC Triennial Reviews of Area Resource Adequacy Objective: As part of the NPCC Reliability Assessment Program, the Task Force on Coordination of Planning is charged, on an ongoing basis, with conducting reviews of resource adequacy of each Area of NPCC, in accordance with NPCC Document B-8, Guidelines for Area Review of Resource Adequacy. http://www.npcc.org/resourceAdequacyReviews.asp?Folder=CurrentYear November 18, 2004

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  12. NPCC Multi-Area Probabilistic Reliability Assessment – Summer 2004 November 18, 2004

  13. NPCC Multi-Area Probabilistic Reliability Assessment – Summer 2004 November 18, 2004

  14. NPCC Multi-Area Probabilistic Reliability Assessment – Summer 2004 November 18, 2004

  15. NPCC Multi-Area Probabilistic Reliability Assessment – Summer 2004 November 18, 2004

  16. NPCC Multi-Area Probabilistic Reliability Assessment – Summer 2004 November 18, 2004

  17. NPCC Multi-Area Probabilistic Reliability Assessment – Summer 2004 November 18, 2004

  18. MANIT Ottawa MINNE East Niagara NW NE VT West NPCC Transfer Limits – From CP-8 2004 Summer Assessment(Assumed Ratings) 262 S 274 W 330 S 342 W 275 65 S 84 W PEI 95 S 110 W 324 NS NBM HQ 400 750 140 0 200 90 222 1,500 300 440 S 535 W 0 124 BEAU 200 2,690 400 350 NB 750 LG2A 1,000 1,900 S 2,000 W 1,000 S 1,100 W 690 740 S 760 W 1,475 0 1,300 S 1,500 W Total Ontario 4,050 In 5,550 Out 400 225 700 1,500 BHE 1,500 1,800 S 2,000 W D 150 0 CMA A F 500 C 800 G 500 W-MA 1,100 1,100 1,600 S 1,700 W 800 330 (CSC) K CT J ECAR 286 2,550 1,000 NOR 0 Total NY-NE 1,225 / 925 S 1,475 W (Excludes CSC) 550 1,100 2,000 West Cent. 2,150 East 4,000 6,000 November 18, 2004

  19. NPCC Multi-Area Probabilistic Reliability Assessment – Summer 2004 November 18, 2004

  20. NPCC Multi-Area Probabilistic Reliability Assessment November 18, 2004

  21. NPCC Multi-Area Probabilistic Reliability Assessment – Summer 2004 NPCC Summary - May - September 2004Potential Range of Use of Indicated Operating ProceduresBase Case Scenario – Preliminary Results Maximum values from Base Case, Extreme Load – 2002 Load Shape assumptions Minimum values from Base Case, Expected Load – 1995 Load Shape assumptions November 18, 2004

  22. NPCC Review of Interconnection Assistance Reliability Benefits Estimate (on a consistent basis) the amount of interconnection assistance available to the NPCC Areas; Review each NPCC Area’s current estimates of interconnection benefits used to meet the NPCC Resource Reliability Criterion; Verify that the current levels of interconnection benefits assumed in each Area’s resource adequacy assessments are reasonable and do not result in overstating any Area’s reliability. November 18, 2004

  23. MAN Ottawa MN East Niagara NW West VT NE Total Ontario 4,050 In 5,550 Out 275 PEI 95 S 110 W 65 S 84 W 324 NS Maritimes NBM Q 400 140 0 200 90 222 700 1,500 300 440 S 535 W 0 124 BEAU 200 Ontario 2,690 400 350 NB 700 LG2A 1,000 1,000 S 1,100 W 1,700 690 375 740 S 760 W 1,385 100 325 Quebec 1,300 S 1,500 W 400 225 700 1,500 BHE 1,500 D TE East 150 1,800 S 2,000 W TE West CMA A New York F 500 New England C 800 500 W-MA  1,000 1,000 G 2,100 S 2,200 W 550 800 1,100 K CT 500 J ECAR 286 2,550 1,000 NOR 2,000 MAAC Total New York -New England 1,550 / 950 S 975 / 2,050 W 2,150 0 MAAC-D NPCC Review of Interconnection Assistance Reliability Benefits November 18, 2004

  24. NPCC Review of Interconnection Assistance Reliability Benefits November 18, 2004

  25. NPCC Review of Interconnection Assistance Reliability Benefits The methodology and assumptions used in this Review was consistently applied to all NPCC Areas, using the same multi-Area reliability model NPCC Area estimates of interconnection benefits used to meet the NPCC Resource Reliability Criterion were reviewed on a consistent basis The interconnection assistance values reported by NPCC Areas in their recent resource adequacy assessments appear to be reasonable and do not overstate interconnection benefits. November 18, 2004

  26. NPCC Review of Interconnection Assistance Reliability Benefits Announced Transmission projects in varying stages of the planning process: Neptune Project TransEnergie Harbor Cable Project Ontario – Québec Tie Second New Brunswick Tie Empire Connection The Lake Erie Link Transmission Project Niagara Reinforcement Project NPCC Major Project List NE RTEP03 November 18, 2004

  27. NPCC Review of Interconnection Assistance Reliability Benefits In light of these and other developments, the CP-8 Working Group recommends that NPCC’s Review of Interconnection Assistance Reliability Benefits be updated once these developments (or their combination) are further quantified in order to identify the impact on the NPCC Area interconnection assistance estimated for the 2006 time frame. November 18, 2004

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  29. NERC Reliability Assessments NERC issues regular assessments of the reliability of North American bulk electric systems.    Ten-Year Reliability Assessments - Each year NERC prepares an assessment of the adequacy of the bulk electric system in the United States and Canada for a ten-year period. The report assesses projected electricity supply and demand, reviews transmission system adequacy, and discusses key issues and trends that could affect reliability. Summer and Winter Assessments - These annual reports assess the adequacy of electricity supplies in the United States and Canada for the upcoming summer and winter peak demand periods. Special Assessments - Special reliability assessments are conducted on a regional, interregional, or interconnection-wide basis as conditions warrant. http://www.nerc.com/~filez/rasreports.html November 18, 2004

  30. NERC Resource and Transmission Adequacy Recommendations The NERC Planning Committee (PC) approved the Resource and Transmission Adequacy Task Force’s (RTATF) report, “Resource and Transmission Adequacy Recommendations,” via mail ballot on May 27, 2004. The NERC Board of Trustees, at its June 15, 2004 meeting, also approved the RTATF report and associated recommendations for implementation. Subsequently, the PC approved the action plans related to the resource adequacy recommendations of the RTATF report at its July 20, 2004 meeting. Those action plans charged the RIS with the development and submittal of a Standard Authorization Request (SAR) on resource adequacy that recognized the elements of resource recommendations 1, 2, 3, and 4 of the RTATF report. http://www.nerc.com/~filez/rtatf.html November 18, 2004

  31. NERC Gas/Electric Interdependency Task Force The PC and the NERC board gave similar approvals to the Gas/Electricity Interdependency Task Force’s (GEITF) “Gas/Electricity Interdependencies and Recommendations” report at the same meetings. The PC also approved the implementation plan for the GEITF recommendations at its July 20, 2004 meeting. Recommendation 4 charged the RIS with developing a SAR that related fuel infrastructure reliability to resource adequacy. RIS has developed a SAR that incorporates the required elements of the RTATF and GEITF reports. http://www.nerc.com/~filez/geitf.html November 18, 2004

  32. Draft NERC SAR on Resource Adequacy 1. a) Each NERC Regional Reliability Council (Region) to establish a resource adequacy criterion (or criteria) based on some metric (e.g., LOLE, LOLP, etc.), consistent with applicable state/province or multi-state/province resource adequacy criteria or requirements. The adequacy criteria should take into account operable capacity situations and reflect the impact of expected transmission constraints, fuel deliverability, environmental restrictions, and other relevant factors. The state(s), province(s), RTO/ISO(s), generation reserve sharing pool(s) and/or other appropriate entity(ies) should establish resource adequacy requirements so as to comply with the resource adequacy criterion (or criteria) of the Region. The Region or subregions should establish assessment methodologies to determine whether the adequacy criteria are met. November 18, 2004

  33. Draft NERC SAR on Resource Adequacy 1. b) Each Region should be required to demonstrate periodically, through analysis, that Regional resource adequacy requirements (such as reserve margins, capacity margins, etc.) satisfy the applicable resource adequacy criteria (such as LOLE, LOLP, etc.). As a part of the demonstration, each Region should describe the expected resource capacity characteristics for the study period and demonstrate that possible fuel supply interruptions have no adverse impact on system reliability. Each Region should also describe available mechanisms to mitigate the impacts of fuel interruption(s) on its ability to serve load reliably. Other factors such as expected transmission constraints and/or environmental restrictions that may impact the Region’s resource adequacy should be examined. The demonstrations should include analyses supporting all critical assumptions. November 18, 2004

  34. Draft NERC SAR on Resource Adequacy 2. The results of all Regional resource adequacy assessments, whether performed by NERC or the Regions, should be made public with the understanding that some data which supports the assessment may be confidential and may not be made public. The Region will aggregate the supply/demand data within the Region and report an aggregate number, not individual electric utility supply/demand data if that data is not available in other public forums. November 18, 2004

  35. Draft NERC SAR on Resource Adequacy 3. NERC should perform periodic audits of the Regional resource adequacy assessment processes. Such audits should validate the compliance of the Regional adequacy requirements with the resource adequacy criteria and may include the performance of independent analysis by NERC. Such audits should also confirm the consistent application of standard resource adequacy assessment methodologies, including appropriate Regional variations. November 18, 2004

  36. Draft NERC SAR on Resource Adequacy 4. NERC, in conjunction with the Regions, should conduct periodic reviews of the respective Regional resource adequacy criteria and their methodologies for general consistency, interdependency and/or impact on adjacent Regions, the treatment of contract considerations, and the deliverability of resources to load. November 18, 2004

  37. Northeast Power Coordinating Council ?? QUESTIONS ?? Contact: Phil Fedora pfedora@npcc.org (212) 840-4909 November 18, 2004

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