ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACTS OF AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE COCONUT AND TEA SECTORS IN SRI LANKA presented by Dr Janaka Ratnasiri Chairman, National Committee of IGBP Principal Investigator, AIACC Project, AS 12
Participating Organizations • Coconut Research Institute • Tea Research Institute • Meteorology Department • Natural Resources Management Services Managed by Sri Lanka Association for the Advancement of Science
OBJECTIVES Collect baseline data on the following: - climate in tea and coconut growing areas over several past decades - productivity of tea and coconut over several past decades separately for different agro-climatic zones - socio economic information both from documented sources and primary sources.
OBJECTIVES Contd. • Project the climate change scenarios in the coconut and tea growing areas based on the global circulation model results down-scaled to Sri Lanka. • Assess the impacts of climate change on productivity of tea and coconut and socio economic status of the people within the plantation sector. • Identify adaptation options and assess their feasibility of implementation
OBJECTIVES contd. • Build capacity of natural and social scientists engaged in plantation research for undertaking assessment studies incorporating impacts, vulnerability and adaptation. • Train scientists to prepare proposals for seeking funds in meeting costs of adaptation to adverse effects of climate change as provided in Article 4 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC, 1992).
WORK PLAN OF STUDY • The first stage will cover collection of baseline data of climatic parameters and production data on coconut and tea, their analysis and constructing future scenarios for temperature and precipitation changes, and future variations in productivity, economy, unemployment and national revenue
WORK PLAN Contd. • The second stage will cover assessment of impacts, identification and assessment of adaptation measures using crop growth models. These models need initial calibration to suit local conditions and validated for current climate conditions. Thereafter these have to be tested with the climate change scenarios developed.
Workplan contd. • In the third stage, the impacts on the markets and trade due to changes in the productivity and the resulting effects on the planters, the labour force and the economy in general will be assessed.
WORKPLAN Contd. • In the fourth stage, adaptation strategies will be evaluated that will mitigate the adverse impacts and those which are most cost effective will be disseminated among planters. The project will also include training of scientists for undertaking adaptive measures and further research on assessments
Year 1 Work Plana) Collect and analyze climatic datab) Collect and analyze production and socio-economic datac) Correlate production data with climate parametersd) Establish climate change scenarios applicable to Sri Lankae) Provide Special Training Workshop on Integrated Assessment Modelling
1. Project changes in production under no climate change and climate change scenarios 2. Calibrate and validate crop model selected3. Apply the model for climate scenarios developed4. Determine new cropping calendar for coconut 5. Provide training by a visiting scientist. 6. Provide training opportunity to a few scientists at IRICP
1. Assess impacts on production and socio-economic factors.2. Identify adaptation strategies and evaluate their cost effectiveness.3. Training of scientists to undertake future research on climate change reports. 4. Attend meetings where the findings of the assessments were discussed.5. Formulate a set of recommendations for the use of policy makers and stake-holders. 6. Prepare the final project report for submission to START.
Stake Holder Activity • Members of Planters’ Associations, Exporters, Trade and Officials from the Ministry of Plantations were invited for the Inception Seminar held in April 2002 • A presentation was made at a meeting held in May 2002 for the Planters to discuss future developments in the industry • All stake holders were invited for the inauguration of the IAM workshop held in December, 2002 In general, the response has been rather poor, except in the second
Linking to National Communication • Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources is responsible for the 2nd NC preparation • Ministry has launched a programme under GEF Enabling Activities Phase II, to support short term studies on impacts and vulnerability assessment • PI of the current project is a member of the Steering Committee of this programme. • Ministry has endorsed the current project as contributing to its effort to collect information for the preparation of the 2nd NC of Sri Lanka