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## Inductive Reasoning

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**Inductive Reasoning**The role of argument forms in evaluating probabilities**Getting Started**First, one becomes interested in something:**Getting Started**First, one becomes interested in something: Call it Y**Getting Started**First, one becomes interested in something: Y Next, one notices some things about it:**Getting Started**First, one becomes interested in something: Y Next, one notices some things about it: Y has properties a, b, c...n**Getting Started**First, one becomes interested in something: Y Next, one notices some things about it: Because we somehow care about or are concerned about Y, a question arises: Y has properties a, b, c...n**Getting Started**First, one becomes interested in something: Y Next, one notices some things about it: Because we somehow care about or are concerned about Y, a question arises: Is what we are able to observe personally or find out from someone else all we can reasonably believe about Y? Y has properties a, b, c...n**The next question is...**What else is probably true of Y?**The next question is...**What else is probably true of Y?**A General Form of Inductive Reasoning**We are interested in Y We notice: Y has properties a, b, c...n**A General Form of Inductive Reasoning**We are interested in Y We notice: Y has properties a, b, c...n We recall: X has properties a, b, c...n**A General Form of Inductive Reasoning**We are interested in Y We notice: Y has properties a, b, c...n We recall: X has properties a, b, c...n We recall: X also has property p**A General Form of Inductive Reasoning**We are interested in Y We notice: Y has properties a, b, c...n We recall: X has properties a, b, c...n We recall: X also has property p In our minds, these facts resolve themselves into an argument almost automatically.**A General Form of Inductive Reasoning**Premise 1: X has properties a, b, c...n Premise 2: Y has properties a, b, c...n Premise 3: X also has property p Conclusion: Y has property p**A General Form of Inductive Reasoning**Premise 1: X has properties a, b, c...n Premise 2: Y has properties a, b, c...n Premise 3: X also has property p Conclusion: Y has property p This is obviously an inconclusive argument, but sometimes this amount of evidence is all we have to go on.**The Bottom Line For All Inductive Reasoning**Is the conclusion of the argument more likely to be true than its contradictory?**The Bottom Line For All Inductive Reasoning**Is the conclusion of the argument more likely to be true than its contradictory? THIS IS IMPORTANT!