Just Jobs for Growth and Stability

1. Just Jobs for Growth and Stability Global Employment Trends and Employment Trends in MENA and Egypt D. Schmidt Employment Specialist ILO Decent Work Team for North Africa

2. Part 1:Global Employment Trends 2011: The Challenge of a Jobs Recovery

3. Key findings of GET 2011 • Economic recovery has not been matched by a comparable employment recovery • Divergent paths: developed versus developing economies • Unemployment remains elevated • Growing number of discouraged workers, particularly affecting youth • Pressure on employment quality, lag in recovery in wages • Slowed progress in reducing vulnerable employment and working poverty • Continued economic growth in 2011, yet downside risks predominate and unemployment will remain high

4. Global employment Steep declines in many developed economies mar global increase

5. Global unemployment Unemployment remains elevated

6. Global unemployment Developed economies account for most of unemployment increase • 205 million unemployed in 2010, up 27.6 million since 2007 • Projected global unemployment of 203.3 million in 2011. • Unemployment remains elevated in the Developed Economies and EU, Central and South-Eastern Europe, Latin America and Caribbean and North Africa regions. • Discouragement hides additional “unemployed” • Increase in part-time work

7. Pressure on employment quality Global labour productivity fell as employment increased • Global output per worker declined by 1.4% in 2009, grew by 3.1% in 2010 • Global real monthly wages rose by 0.7 percent in 2009, down from 0.8 percent growth in 2008 and 2.2 percent in 2007. • The delay in the labour market recovery is seen with the sluggish resumption of wage growth in many countries

8. Employment by sector Industrial employment hit hardest

9. Vulnerable employment Stagnating progress in reducing vulnerable employment

10. Working poverty (USD 1.25 a day) Slowed progress in reducing working poverty

11. Part 2: Labour Markets in the MENA region

12. Labour market situation prior to the crises and thereafter in MENA • Slightly positive trends before the crisis were interrupted during the crisis but not reversed • Key challenges remain the same: • Low employment-to-population ratios (46.2% in 2010) • High unemployment rates (10.1%), especially for women (15.8%) and youth (24.8%, 21.5% male and 33% female) • Unemployment across all levels of income and education • Lack of high quality jobs (persistence of vulnerable employment (37% in 2009) and working poverty at USDollar 2 a day (especially in North Africa with 1/3 of total employment)

13. Labour market situation prior to the crises and thereafter in MENA Key challenges remain the same: • Slow structural shifts (26.2 agr.; 52.3 services; 21.5 industry) • High share of public sector employment (1/3) • Limited growth in productivity • Lack of social dialogue • Lack of social protection • Skills issues • Mismatch • Lack of investment in workers • Work attitudes • Employer’s attitudes

14. Youth unemployment Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2010

15. Employment-to-population ratio

16. Productivity and productivity growth Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2010

17. Source: Montenegro and Hirn (2009)

18. Part 3: Egypt • The greatest threat to Egypt’s economic and social progress is its tremendous lack of decent work opportunities for young people (aged 15 to 29) • Unemployment rate: 14 % for young men • 45 % for young women • And: Young people have to accept low productivity, low paid and insecure jobs, far below their capabilities.

19. Some more facts • A rapidly increasing labour force - 700,000 new entrants every year translating into high unemployment rates especially for young people and women and across all levels of education. • Unemployment appears across all income groups and educational levels • Roughly 3 out of 10 people working in Egypt occupy a vulnerable job • Agriculture accounted for almost one third of all employed people in 2009. The largest sector is the service sector that accounts for roughly 45 per cent of overall employment. • High share of public sector employment • Limited growth in productivity • Poor quality of education systems including of vocational training– • Non-conducive environment for MSMEs • Mismanaged migration • Limited existence of solid analysis of labour markets and of labour market policies • Low wage and ridiculous minimum wage • Weak Social Dialogue • Limited social protection  • Non functioning employment services • Etc....

21. Root causes • Focus on macro-economic indicators • Job creation is lacking behind population growth • Skills produced often do not match labour market needs • Expectations of young people and enterprises do not match • The matching process between supply and demand is not working • Not many young people are engaged in self-employment • The responsible Ministry (Ministry of Manpower and Migration) is not in a strong enough position to fulfil its mandate • Interventions have often been fragmented and not • Interlinked • Partnerships in youth employment related areas are not working well, neither at the national level, nor at the regional or local level • Labour market institutions lack capacity • ...

22. Social Dialogue SUPPLY SIDE DEMAND SIDE MATCHING PROCESS Social Protection

23. Thank you for your attention