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THE FUTURE

THE FUTURE . Emerging technologies IT and e -commerce. TECHNOLOGY FUTURES. Communications Input/Output Computing. COMMUNICATIONS. Bandwidth will get much, much cheaper and more available. More people will have more decision-making power in organizations.

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THE FUTURE

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  1. THE FUTURE Emerging technologies IT and e-commerce BA 572 - J. Galván

  2. TECHNOLOGY FUTURES • Communications • Input/Output • Computing BA 572 - J. Galván

  3. COMMUNICATIONS • Bandwidth will get much, much cheaper and more available. • More people will have more decision-making power in organizations. • Will videoconferencing be as good as being there? • Wireless will be increasingly important. • There will never be enough bandwidth. • ...or will there? BA 572 - J. Galván

  4. INPUT OUTPUT • Human interfaces will improve, but less rapidly than some expect. • Speech • Written natural language • Tangible interfaces • Electronic paper • Neural interfaces • Computers will be more capable of acting in the physical world. • Vision • Robotics / Motion • Desktop fabs • RFID BA 572 - J. Galván

  5. COMPUTING • Computers will be much, much faster and cheaper. • Limits to current technologies? • Quantum computing • Nanotechnology • DNA computing/ biological computing • Computers will be everywhere. • Ubiquitous computing • Information appliances • Wearables • Computers will be smarter. • Limits to artificial intelligence? BA 572 - J. Galván

  6. POSSIBLE FUTURES AND FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS (EC) • Identify possible future scenarios • Conduct preliminary feasibility analysis • Technical feasibility • Does the necessary technology exist? • Is the necessary technology likely to exist in time? • Economic feasibility • Does the outcome promise a reasonable return? • Political feasibility • Can the task be done in the context of the existing or expected social and political environment? • Scenario not feasible if any answer is no BA 572 - J. Galván

  7. WILD CARDS • Unanticipated technological changes • Can make current scenarios of the future irrelevant BA 572 - J. Galván

  8. TIERED CLASSES INTERNET SERVICES. Is it likely that such a system for “classes of service” will become the norm? BA 572 - J. Galván

  9. POSSIBLE FUTURES • Tiered services will fade away • Tiered services will be successful but no obvious standard will emerge • Tiered services will become the new standard • Example: Consider the third possible future BA 572 - J. Galván

  10. TECHNICAL FEASIBILITY • There is no technical reason why tiered services cannot emerge in the “foreseeable” future • Tiered Internet services are technically feasible BA 572 - J. Galván

  11. ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY • Model exists • Television • Broadcast • Basic cable • Premium cable • Pay-per-view • Tiered services are economically feasible BA 572 - J. Galván

  12. POLITICAL FEASIBILITY • Tiered services will change the Internet • Preferential treatment for some • The “information should be free” credo • Winners • Service providers – fees • Higher-tier users – quality and speed • Losers • Serious, independent Web surfers • Online advertisers • The information have-nots BA 572 - J. Galván

  13. WEB SERVICES • Intermediary-supplied e-utilities • Allow incompatible applications to interact • Similar to ASP services • Software building blocks • Examples • Credit card approval • Currency conversion • Word to PDF • Airline to car rental links BA 572 - J. Galván

  14. THINK OF A WEB SERVICE AS A REMOTE SUBROUTINE. BA 572 - J. Galván

  15. WEB SERVICES: POSSIBLE FUTURES • Web services are mostly hype • They will fade away • Custom solution better option • Web services will be successful but no dominant standard will emerge • Trading partners with incompatible services • Web services will be successful and a dominant standard will emerge • Best outcome for supply chain integration BA 572 - J. Galván

  16. TECHNICAL FEASIBILITY • Web services are technically feasible • Intermediary XML applications common • Question: Will a standard emerge? • Islands, continents, planets of automation • Historically, a few firms will dominate • Lock-in attempts will abound BA 572 - J. Galván

  17. ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY • Web services look promising • CIO article – $15.5 billion by 2005 • Expect fierce competition • Risk – vaporware BA 572 - J. Galván

  18. POLITICAL FEASIBILITY • Winners if a single standard emerges • The vendor who owns the standard • Microsoft .NET • Sun Microsystems J2EE • IBM Tivoli software portfolio • Risk – monopoly, collusion • Cautions and concerns • Excessive hype • Publicly available services diminish competitive advantage BA 572 - J. Galván

  19. THE FUTURE OF WEB SERVICES • Consider the firms pushing Web services • IBM, Microsoft, Sun their track records are good • They have deep pockets • Their long-term success depends on customer lock-in • Accelerating pace of change • Web services can cut response time • Web services can cut development cost • Multiple “standards” most likely outcome • Incompatibilities with trading partners will continue to be a problem BA 572 - J. Galván

  20. TECHNOLOGY • Wireless communications • Becoming ubiquitous • Calling areas expanding • Trend toward fixed monthly fee • Short-range wireless also exploding • Bluetooth • Wi-Fi • Cautions • Exposure to radiation? • Being “always on” BA 572 - J. Galván

  21. BUSINESS • Value chain/supply chain integration • Limit – frictionless e-commerce • Will lead to intense competition • Could lead to consolidation • Physical security improvements • Disperse potential targets • Smaller offices in smaller towns • Telecommuting • Parallel to Interstate highway system • Real-time employee monitoring BA 572 - J. Galván

  22. EDUCATION • Pace of change accelerating • Need for continuous retraining • Commencement marks a beginning • Education infrastructure inconvenient • New educational models emerging • Evening, weekend, on site • Internet based • New models will be source of growth • Quality a concern – accreditation • Risk – credentialing BA 572 - J. Galván

  23. VIDEO GAME PLATFORMS ARE THE STATE OF THE ART. • Wild card • Near future source of interactive learning/training environments • Critical mass of gamers exists • May change nature of education, training or life-long learning BA 572 - J. Galván

  24. THE TOTAL EDUCATION AND TRAINING PIE. Today 2020 BA 572 - J. Galván

  25. E-COMMERCE AND YOUR FUTURE • Important to consider • Ripple effects • Unintended side effects • Lock-in opportunities and constraints • Focus on your future • Expect to see growing attention to security and privacy in EC/EB system deployments BA 572 - J. Galván

  26. IT’LL ALWAYS HAPPEN! BA 572 - J. Galván

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