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Evaluation of Polyphemus for 2004

Evaluation of Polyphemus for 2004. Janusz Zyśk, Yelva Roustan, Artur Wyrwa, Denis Quelo. Atelier Polyphemus Champs-sur-Marne, 28th October 2008. Outline. Air quality in Poland Impact studies Modeling in local scale Validation of Polyphemus for 2004 Plans for future. Introduction.

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Evaluation of Polyphemus for 2004

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  1. Evaluation of Polyphemus for 2004 Janusz Zyśk, Yelva Roustan, Artur Wyrwa, Denis Quelo. Atelier Polyphemus Champs-sur-Marne, 28th October 2008

  2. Outline • Air quality in Poland • Impact studies • Modeling in local scale • Validation of Polyphemus for 2004 • Plans for future

  3. Introduction Cost savings Emission reduction Adaptation of EU methodologies for Integrated Impact Assessment of energy scenarios (an Environmental and Human Health) Atmospheric Transport:SO2, NOx, PM, HM Negative impacts Avoided costs Critical loads, Dose-response function Emission database Benefits

  4. From emissions estimation ... to health and environmental impact Concentration and depositionPOLYPHEMUS Emission level of different pollutantsRAINS Population densitydistribution Environment impactECOSENS, RiskPoll

  5. Sectors emissions modelling 2005 2010 2020 0 20 60 110 165 235 390 675 1000 The annual EMEP emission of SO2 from SNAP 1 [Mg/cell] Average yearly concetration of SO2 from SNAP 1 [µg/m3] Annual costs of loss of life due to SO2 emission, from SNAP1 [x1000 EUR/y].

  6. Estimation of external cost horizontal resolution of the grid is 0,01o x 0,01o with number of the cells 34 x 28 first cell localized in the left lower corner 18.455W, 52.865E Points emitors Surface emission Linear Emission

  7. Estimation of external cost 0.03 0.04 0.055 0.075 0.1 0.115 People/cell 0 320 880 2400 4000 6900 Change in concentration of SO2 in the air [µg/m3], after eliminating domestic emission in The Old Town (60 Mg/y). Population of Toruń in different regions of the city 0.01 0.03 0.55 0.09 0.16 0.28 Avoided external costs about 7 % Change in concentration of PM10 in the air [µg/m3], after eliminating domestic emission in The Old Town (140 Mg/y).

  8. Polyphemus in local scale The emission inventory consisted of: area emissions 200 by 200km – Krakow in the center with resolution 5 by 5 km, area emissions from Krakow and surroundings (30 by 30 km) with resolution 1 by 1 km, emissions from point sources – 430 main points emitters Simulation for 2005 base on ECMWF longitude: first 19,700, step 0,020, 30 cells, latitude: first 49,900, step 0,010,25 cells.

  9. Polyphemus in local scale NO2 concentration(Krowodrza station) SO2 concentration (Krowodrza station).

  10. Validation of Polyphemus for 2004 over Europe • The two simulations over Europe for 2004 were performed. • longitude from -10.25 W to 30.25 E and latitude from 34,75 N to 57,25 N with resolutions 0,5 x 0,5 (lon/lat) • longitude from -4,6 W to 27,4 E and latitude from 39,75 N to 56,75 N with resolutions 0,8 x 0,5 (lon/lat) . Simulations was done for 5 levels with boundaries 0, 50, 600, 1200, 2000, 3000 m. For meteorological, emission, boundary condition for gases and aerosols inputs the EMCWF, EMEP, Mozart 2 and GOCART data were used respectively

  11. Results for gaseous species Average concetration of NO2 [µg/m3] in 2004 Average concetration of SO2 [µg/m3] in 2004

  12. Concetration of aerosols Average concetration of PM 2.5 [µg/m3] in 2004 Average concetration of PM 10 [µg/m3] in 2004 Average concetration of sea salt [µg/m3] in 2004

  13. Validation of Polyphemus for 2004 The results from Polyphemus were compared with data from EMEP and AirBase. The location of EMEP stations The location of AirBase stations The red results are coming from: K.N. Sartelet, E. Debry, K. Fahey, Y. Roustan, M. Tombette, B. Sportisse. Simulation of aerosols and gas-phase species over Europe with the Polyphemus system: Part I – Model to data comparison for 2001 Atmosheric Enviroment 41 (2007)

  14. Validation of Polyphemus for 2004

  15. Validation of Polyphemus for 2004

  16. Validation of Polyphemus for 2004

  17. Validation of Polyphemus for 2004

  18. Plans for future • Working on developing Polyphemus for simulations of heavy metals – mercury module. • Developing plume in grid model - for the heavy metals particles - for mercury (specific chemistry) • Investigating of behavior of heavy metals in PM (size distribution, deposition)

  19. Thank you

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