Thoughts on The Agility Imperative

1. Thoughts on The Agility Imperative Knowledge Futures: The Agility Imperative March 18, 2011 Richard E. Hayes, Ph.D. President Evidence Based Research, Inc. The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of, and should not be attributed to Evidence Based Research or the U.S. Government.

2. Agenda • What is Agility? • What does Imperative Mean? • Why is Agility Imperative Today? • Implications for Decision Making (Military Command and Control) • Measuring Agility • It’s All About Networks • Conclusions

3. What is Agility? Agility is the ability to successfully cope with changes in the self and environment. • E.g., • Degradation / loss of capability • Change in objectives • Change in coalition (self) • … • Maintain acceptable level of • Performance • Effectiveness • Efficiency Requires • Timely recognition • Appropriate response • Timely response

4. Essence of Agility Agility is normally manifested through one or more of these mechanisms: • Robustness • Resilience • Responsiveness • Flexibility • Innovation • Adaptability • Structure • Process Agility may be seen as • Requisite variety • Learning • Fault tolerance • Re-engineering • Reflexive control • Nimbleness • Adjustment These mechanisms may interact and trade off.

5. What does Imperative Mean? • Dictionary Definitions: • From Latin imperare – to command • Having the power or authority to command or control • Impossible to deter or evade • An imperative property is one that is necessary under some conditions. • Agility is imperative when dealing with complex endeavors.

6. First Uses in the Literature • Leadership Agility: Five Levels of Mastery for Anticipating and Initiating Change (Joiner & Josephs, Wiley, 2006). • These authors deal with business situations involving new markets, technologies, and competitors. • NATO NEC C2 Maturity Model (NATO SAS-065, Command and Control Research Program, 2010). • These authors deal with complex endeavors requiring civil-military cooperation. • The Agility Imperative: Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors (Dr. David S. Alberts, CCRP, 2010). (Most of this presentation is adapted from this source.) • This phrase arose quite independently in these two literatures.

7. Why is Agility Imperative Today? • Operating contexts (business and government) are increasingly characterized by complexity. • Large numbers of interacting entities • Rapid rates of change (dynamics) • Irreducible uncertainty • Limited information • These factors lead to unpredictability. Increased Complexity Increased Unpredictability

8. Sources of Mission Complexity 21st Century Missions are Complex Endeavors Complexity of the Task and Environment + Complexity of ‘Self’ = Complex Endeavor This applies to business as well as government.

9. Governments Tasksand Environment Counter Terrorism Humanitarian Assistance Peace Keeping • The success of 21st Century Missions requires a multi-dimensional effects space. • Political, social, economic, military • People, organizations, processes, technologies • The complexity of the mission is a result of the interactions between and among the effects, particularly across dimensions, and the uncertainties associated with a cascading effects chain. Stability Operations Disaster Relief

10. Tasks and Business Environment Production Marketing Owners and Shareholders • The success of 21st Century businesses requires a multi-dimensional effects space. • Political, social, economic, legal • New partners, technologies, markets, competitors • The complexity of business operations is a result of interactions between and among the effects, particularly across dimensions, and the uncertainties associated with a cascading effects chain. Administration Personnel

11. Complexity of Self • Self: A large number of heterogeneous, independent entities that differ significantly with respect to • Culture, values and norms • Laws, policies, rules, and regulations • Practices and processes • Levels of trust • Levels of competence • Language • Information and communications capabilities • Approach to organization and management • The complexity of “Self” comes from the nature of the interactions between and among the participating entities and the dynamics of the situation that impact entity willingness, constraints, perceptions, and capabilities.

12. Implications for Decision Making and Command and Control Increases Complex Endeavors Unpredictability Challenges basic assumptions re: Leadership & Decision Making Challenges basic assumptions re: Control Decision Making (C2)

13. Basic Challengesto Assumptions: Unpredictability • The scope (size) of changes will increase. • The unexpected will occur with greater frequency. • The effective lives of strategies and plans will be shorter. • Critical information and expertise necessary to understand the situation will be less available and more scattered. • Traditional approaches to decision making under uncertainty will be less applicable. • Participating entities will have different goals and objective functions. The most appropriate response to unpredictability, more rapid change, and greater uncertainty (complexity) is Agility

14. What is Agility? Agility is the ability to successfully cope with changes in the self and environment. • E.g., • Degradation / loss of capability • Change in objectives • Change in coalition (self) • … • Maintain acceptable level of • Performance • Effectiveness • Efficiency Requires • Timely recognition • Appropriate response • Timely response

15. Implications for Decision Making(Military Command and Control) Increases Complex Endeavors Unpredictability Challenges basic assumptions re: Leadership & Decision Making Challenges basic assumptions re: Control Agile Decision Making (C2)

16. Challenges to Basic Assumptions:Decision Making and C2 in Complex Endeavors • There will be no single leader or unified chain of command. • No single entity will have the capability to deal effectively with the situation (interdependencies are dominant). • Each entity will have its own intent, but agree on an overarching purpose. • The situation will be, in part, unfamiliar to all entities. • There will be multiple planning processes. • Critical information and expertise necessary to understand the situation will be scattered across entities. • Actions, to be effective, will require synergies between and among entity actions.

17. Essences of Agility: What Needs to be Agile Agility may be found in Architectures and systems Policies Doctrine and best practices Tactics, techniques, and procedures Approaches to acquisition • People • Management approaches • Decision rights • Patterns of interaction • Distribution of information • Organizations • Processes These elements interact and may trade off

18. Measuring Agility • Agility is not completely observable • Agility (or a lack of ) can be measured only after the fact (manifested) • Agility is potential until it is manifested – indicants more available and hard measurement • Thus, a system for measuring Agility must include both potential and manifested Agility • Indicants measure the properties of an entity that are related to more or less agility. • Indicants may be easier to observe / measure

19. Essence of Agility Agility is normally manifested through one or more of these mechanisms: • Robustness • Resilience • Responsiveness • Flexibility • Innovation • Adaptability • Structure • Process Agility may be seen as • Requisite variety • Learning • Fault tolerance • Re-engineering • Reflexive control • Nimbleness • Adjustment These mechanisms may interact and trade off.

20. Requisite Agility • Agility is not an unlimited good • Too much agility may make the collective impotent (perseveration) • Agility is never an end in itself • Improving Agility involves costs • Investments in networks • Requirements for training, etc. • The amount of Agility required is a function of the environment and situation

21. Rethinking Decision Making and C2 • The Mission Space Defines the Properties Needed in the Approach Space • Virtually all major future endeavors will be complex • Situations will be dynamic and unpredictable • The more complex and dynamic the situation, the greater the demand for agility • New, Agile Approaches to Decision Making and C2 • There are many ways to accomplish the functions associated with Decision Making and C2 • No one approach fits all missions or situations • The most appropriate approach will be a function of the endeavor • Entities will need to be able to utilize more than one Approach • The Collective needs to be able to adopt an appropriate Approach • The Approach needs to change with changing circumstances

22. The Problem Space 21st century mission weak strength of information position strong dynamic rate of change static familiarity Cold War high low Alberts and Hayes, Understanding Command and Control, CCRP, 2006.

23. C2 Approach Space Distributionof InformationAmongParticipants Edge Organizations Patterns of Interaction Among Entities Traditional Hierarchical Organizations Allocation of Decision Rights to the Collective Adapted from SAS-065, NATO NEC C2 Maturity Model, CCRP, 2010.

24. A False Choice Distributionof InformationAmongParticipants B Edge Organizations ? Patterns of Interaction Among Entities It’s not about howto get from A to B, but… A Allocation of Decision Rights to the Collective Adapted from SAS-065, NATO NEC C2 Maturity Model, CCRP, 2010.

25. C2 Agility Distributionof InformationAmongParticipants Agile C2 Involves the ability to move around the C2 Approach Space appropriately Patterns of Interaction Among Entities Allocation of Decision Rights to the Collective Adapted from SAS-065, NATO NEC C2 Maturity Model, CCRP, 2010.

26. Command and Control Agility • C2 Agility is the ability to maintain effective C2 as a function of changing circumstances and stresses. • Agility is an umbrella concept that includes • Responsiveness • Robustness • Resilience • Being able to recognize and transition to the appropriate approach to C2 is an essential capability, but only one of the ways that we can make C2 more agile. • Network Enabled Capability Command and Control is inherently more Agile than traditional approaches. • – Flexibility • – Innovativeness • – Adaptability

27. Decision Making (DM) Agility • DM Agility is the ability to maintain effectiveness as a function of changing circumstances and stresses. • DM Agility is an umbrella concept that includes • Responsiveness • Robustness • Resilience • Being able to recognize and transition to the appropriate approach to DM is an essential capability, but only one of the ways that we can make DM more agile. • Network Enabled Decision Making is inherently more Agile than traditional approaches. • – Flexibility • – Innovativeness • – Adaptability

28. It’s all about Networks • Complex Endeavors are now the dominant form of important activities in government and business. • Complex Effects Space: • More than just direct effects • Interactions in effects space significant • Lack of understanding of cross-domain cause-effects • Inability to predict • Operating in a Network-Centric Environment: • From few to many • From familiar to unfamiliar • Complex “Self”: • “Self” is composed of a large number of heterogeneous entities • Different objectives, values, constraints • No single entity in charge • Entities have significantly different perceptions Effects Network Networked Self

29. Principles for Decision Makingin Complex Endeavors • Avoid single points of failure: • Plan and design for flexibility • Maintain multiple perspectives and models • Self • Environment • Probe and watch: • Act to generate information • Establish monitoring and feedback systems • Maintain resource reserves: • Avoid going “all in” • Prepare to respond to change • Reinforce success over time • Seek dynamic multiples: • Self-synchronization • Cascading effects

30. Conclusions • Complex (dynamic, unpredictable) operating environments and increasingly complex endeavors (groups of cooperating entities) mean that traditional decision making, planning, and implementation approaches are no longer adequate. • Agility has become imperative: • The ability to cope success fully with changes in the self and environment • Those who are not agile will fail (almost by definition) • Changes in the self and environment generate opportunities as well as threats • The mechanisms of agility are known (but not perfectly): • New principles for implementation have also emerged. • Robustness • Responsiveness • Resilience • Innovation • Flexibility • Adaptation • Process • Structure

31. Bibliography • Alberts, David S. “The Agility Imperative: Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors.” Presented at Defense S&T Symposium: Preparing the Military for the Unpredictable, Ottawa, Canada, April 27–29, 2010. • Alberts, David S., Reiner K. Huber, James Moffat, et al. NATO NEC C2 Maturity Model. Washington, DC: CCRP, 2010. • Alberts, David S., and Richard E. Hayes. Planning: Complex Endeavors. Washington, DC: CCRP, 2007. • Alberts, David S. “Agility, Focus, and Convergence: The Future of Command and Control.” The International C2 Journal, Vol. 1, No. 1, 2007. • Hayes, Richard E. “It's an Endeavor, Not a Force.” The International C2 Journal, Vol. 1, No. 1, 2007. • Alberts, David S., and Richard E. Hayes. Understanding Command and Control. Washington, DC: CCRP, 2006. • Alberts, David S., and Richard E. Hayes. Power to the Edge: Command and Control in the Information Age. Washington, DC: CCRP, 2003. Available at www.dodccrp.org

32. Contact Information Richard E. Hayes, Ph.D.rehayes@ebrinc.com703.893.6800 Ext. 372 Want to learn more? Attend the International Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium (ICCRTS). Quebec, Canada, June 21—23, 2011. For details go to: www.dodccrp.org