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2014 EMO Briefing

2014 EMO Briefing. Debrief Cat 3 Hurricane Gonzalo – Direct hit 16-17 October, 2014 Points to consider. Kimberley Zuill 20 October 2014. Hurricane Gonzalo – view from space. Points to consider. Swell direction shift

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2014 EMO Briefing

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  1. 2014 EMO Briefing • Debrief Cat 3 Hurricane Gonzalo – Direct hit 16-17 October, 2014 • Points to consider Kimberley Zuill 20 October2014

  2. Hurricane Gonzalo – view from space

  3. Points to consider • Swell direction shift • - East swell/wind rather than SE – less impact on Causeway – Need buoy to verify sea/ surge • Technology of weather sensors • Causeway sensors ultra sonic, only issue was power supply • (need the same technology on the runway- 10 yr old equipment goes U/S) • Comparison with other hurricanes • Can not fully compare with previous hurricanes • - Synoptic situation different – behind Fay / structural improvements since Fabian • Social media • Social media, Skype interviews with The Weather Channel • & frequent calls to 100.1FM improved people’s awareness during and after • Communication with Argyll • Coms with Argyll re: weather info & RCC outage • Location and channel to communicate, on approach • Rumors: tornadoes & 3rd storm on Sunday – BWS efforts to stomp them out. • Potential - Evacuation and loss of data from BWS – roof damage / window blowout

  4. East wind & swell

  5. Causeway Impact Gonzalo and that High & the front were in a scrum... we were forecasting SE, worst direction for broadside impact on Causeway, but that stubborn High squished the NE quadrant so much that we had long duration East winds ahead of the eye. East winds & swells meant that the finger took the brunt of the water action & buffered most of the Causeway except the corner down by Blue Hole... where those side walls came down.

  6. BWS staffing • BWS Doubled up • DAO op Manager • EMO & 100.1FM updates • The Weather Channel • FB posts – social media • HMS Argyll coms • Observer area evacuation • BWS continued ops • “Keep Calm & Tarp On!”

  7. BWS Operations • www.weather.bm • Automated BTC telephone recordings 977, 9771, 9772, 9773 • Radio interviews • Marine VHF Channel 2 (Bermuda Radio) • Cable & WOW Bermuda Weather Channels • Communications with EMO, Aviation & Marine operations via email, fax, phone, satellite phone • News media announcements • Full redundancy for BWS equipment, electricity and communications Hurricane Warning in effect for Bermuda Bermuda

  8. BWS makes Met history: only a few (3) places have released balloons in hurricane eye

  9. Hurricane Hunter flight path of Gonzalo

  10. Title

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  12. South side of Gonzalo – Feeder Rain Bands & Eye wall replacement; transition from Cat 3 to Cat 2 but losing tropical characteristics – 50 knot gust difference from sustained

  13. Title 24 hours 15 hours 12 hours ** 4 hrs Cat3 - Cat2 Eye aprox 45 min

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  15. Rumor combat… Social media as a weapon • Rumors: • Tornadoes off south & • west end – 3 week old • photo of waterspouts • Another Tropical storm • Coming on Sunday

  16. Needs – a future meeting • Bermuda Needs a 24 hour National Weather Service – locally based • Current aviation contract with BWS (BAS-Serco) ends March • RFP details weather needs for airport and country on 1 page • Cabinet paper- (in draft), National Security Review etc • Communications meeting with media & EMO • Weekend impacts • Local Alert for spin up weather (tornadoes) or tsunami - siren? • Review & action of past unaddressed action items in major impact reports (Fabian) • Re-table & budget the coastal inundation project (flooding & surge) • BWS portion means I can better forecast & verify local impacts • With use of a local buoy and sensors in flood/surge prone locations

  17. FLASH! Community outreach - INFORMATION NHC endorsed Local connections/partnerships - Ren Re - RPI, BIOS - local insurance companies Campaigns: - “don’t drown, turn around” - hurricane flash cards - social media outreach Website: www.flash.org http://www.flash.org/resources.php

  18. Recommendations • Establish/improve flood risk zone maps, with designated ‘safe areas’ in each parish • Establish a means of alerting the public to: • Take action • Seek more information at 100.1FM, CITV, Bermuda Weather Channels, EMO/BWS websites • Would require education campaign • Suggest Sirens be considered as part of this, also in support of any other short-fused event. Refs: Surge maps: Post ‘Gert’ EMO Meeting Feb 2000 Survey Section Proposal to EMO – May 2005 Tsunami Tabletop Exercise April 2009 EMO Monthly Meeting June 2011 Sirens/Emergency Alerts: EMO Meeting June 1995 Post ‘Florence’ EMO Meeting Sept. 2006 Nat’l Security Plan, Bermuda February 2008

  19. Thank you for your attention Any Questions?

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