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2007 Planning Long-Term Hourly Demand and Energy Forecast

2007 Planning Long-Term Hourly Demand and Energy Forecast. Board of Directors Meeting May 16, 2007 Bill Bojorquez. Forecasting Assumptions and Methodology. Economic history and forecast for Texas Source is Moody’s Economy.com Proprietary data Population Income Other economic variables

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2007 Planning Long-Term Hourly Demand and Energy Forecast

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  1. 2007 Planning Long-TermHourly Demand and Energy Forecast Board of Directors Meeting May 16, 2007 Bill Bojorquez

  2. Forecasting Assumptions and Methodology • Economic history and forecast for Texas • Source is Moody’s Economy.com • Proprietary data • Population • Income • Other economic variables • Historic weather data from each ERCOT weather zone • Source is WeatherBank • Not a weather forecast • Temperature • Humidity • Cooling Degree Days (CDD) • Heating Degree Days (HDD) • Calendar Data • Seasonal Variation • Daily Variation • Weekly Variation • Holidays KD - 2007 Planning Long-Term Hourly Demand and Energy

  3. Hourly Peak Demand 2007-17 Growth Rate 2.12% KD - 2007 Planning Long-Term Hourly Demand and Energy

  4. Hourly Peak Demand KD - 2007 Planning Long-Term Hourly Demand and Energy

  5. Reconciliation Of Forecast Differences • The basic methodology used to produced the forecast has remained the same • The main sources of differences in the forecasts produced by the 2006 Long-Term Forecast Model (LTFM) and the 2007 LTFM for 2007 are: • More optimistic economic forecasts throughout the ERCOT territory • Adjustments to calibrate the performance and weather sensitivity of the model based on last’s year forecast versus actual data KD - 2007 Planning Long-Term Hourly Demand and Energy

  6. Energy 2007-17 Growth Rate 2.08% KD - 2007 Planning Long-Term Hourly Demand and Energy

  7. BACKUP MATERIAL

  8. Real Personal Per-Capita Income KD - 2007 Planning Long-Term Hourly Demand and Energy

  9. Population in ERCOT Territory KD - 2007 Planning Long-Term Hourly Demand and Energy

  10. Employment in the Financial Services KD - 2007 Planning Long-Term Hourly Demand and Energy

  11. Non-Farm Employment in ERCOT Territory KD - 2007 Planning Long-Term Hourly Demand and Energy

  12. Total Employed in ERCOT Territory KD - 2007 Planning Long-Term Hourly Demand and Energy

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