Developments in UK Business Demography Andrew Allen
UK Business Demography • UK user demand • Currently available data • Changes to accommodate business demography • Future demand
UK User Demand • Main user BERR • Monitoring changes in business population- briefing politicians • Compare performance between regions • Regional Development Agencies • To monitor policy on creating and sustaining businesses • High growth businesses – contributors to job creation
User Demand • Both BERR and RDAs need data quickly • Both central and local government demand • Most users interested in regional variations or smaller geographical areas
Current Publication • BERR use register data to publish VAT based enterprise registrations and de-registrations • A narrower methodology – i.e. VAT only • Business Demography will replace BERR VAT based publication • Much broader - any active business included.
Need for Speed • To satisfy UK users we have to publish as quickly as BERR VAT registrations • Within a year of the reference period • Problem with Business Demography – time lag for deaths - 2 years • Reactivations
ONS Plan • Publish on 28 November • Birth, Death and Survival – SBS variables • Births and Provisional Deaths 2007 • Will include NACE 3 digit and County, District for 2007
Provisional Deaths • 2007 Deaths will be provisional. • An estimate for reactivations has been made • A table showing raw deaths and the reactivation estimate will be published in the press release • Risk, but more useful for users
Other Products • Local Authority Indicators • Births by 10,000 adult population for each Local Authority • Businesses with <50 employment , with growth in employment between year 1 and year 2 - for each Local Authority
Enterprise versus Local Unit • ONS regional demography being done using enterprises • Considered a better indicator of entrepreneurship • Methodology already in place • UK register focussed on enterprise continuity • LU continuity has been a problem
Future Demand • Investigating creating sub–annual indicators of births and deaths • Could use all data sources, but simplest to just use VAT • VAT quickest source. • Beware -administrative processes can confuse signal
Summary • User demand has encouraged quick demography results • Balance of risk between speed and revisions • Regional demography also produced • Administrative data flows being explored for sub-annual demography.
Issues for Discussion • Regional - Enterprise or LU • Speeding up annual delivery • Higher frequency data